Good Looking Charts?

[DCA]

Hi Louise,

Yes, interesting but off topic.  Are not we all guilty?  I think what the Chinese and Russians are asking for is an international currency where US policy does not have such a strong influence.  Perhaps the Rembi?

I think the closest we could achieve is a currency index.  Take a basket of currencies, weight the current value as 100 and then you could calculate how the Candian dollar fluctuates against this.

With enough currencies in the mix the short term political fingering would be removed.

The US would be dead set against this because the US dollar would have more apparent fluctuation under this system.

Google also the Big Mac Index.

D

[bryanmcn]

Most of the time, no one really knows why stocks move. If they did, they could predict better. Thats why technical analysis is the only true way to predict with any success. (Better than fundamentals anyways).
Watch the charts. See the patterns. Its not 100% but its the best (legal) strategy I've found.
Bryan

[garilou]

I can't agree 100%. Although I agree it's a great help.
Look at FIU, the TA was good. And just a news coming out yesterday (May 11), that you probably saw, but that were not allowed to copy here, and the stock drops down 8%, now at 6.94, erasing in one night the gain that I had at last on that stock.
Is it priced in now? Probably, but I doubt it will ever come back higher as $7.00.

News DO impact the charts, sometimes in dramatic ways!
The problem is to interpret the news, as I discussed once somewhere else: it seems investors did not like this one!

When SSP sends a sell order, it will be too late!, But they could also not predict that, since they go strictly by the TA.

Louise

[bryanmcn]

Louis
No one said TA is 100% accurate as a predictor. But it gives you an edge. Sometimes a strong one.
BTW - Look at the 6 month chart of FIU. Unless it drops below $6 and forms a lower low, TA says it WILL rebound above $7 and make a higher high.

[bryanmcn]

May 18, 2009
Hi Louis
Are you still holding FIU? Looks like its forming a base.
Bryan

[garilou]

Hi Bryan,
Sorry I took so long to reply, I have changed my browser and had problems trying to post.
After my May 12 post, how could you think I was long on FIU?
I went short in FIU the day it was called a SELL by SSP, (at 6.90), and doubled by position when FIU got over $7.00 (at 7.03): I was so sure it could  NOT go or stay higher than $7.00! And it was not the TA that gave me that certainty but the news I had told about.
Unfortunately, I did not want to be too greedy... and I covered my short... yesterday, just before the today's announcement that sent it another 30% down 
Once again the TA played me a bad trick, because just with the TA, it looked like the downward trend was loosing strength. Since I new I could be "on the floor" this morning, instead of setting a stop, I covered, at $6.08

Still I had a pretty gain on that one, but I bit my fingers when I came back home this afternoon...

Now that the news is "priced in", I might go long on of these days...

Louise

PS: On the other hand, I was happy that I had covered to other US shorts that jumped up today, one with a small gain, the other one with a  more subtantial loss.

PSS: On what are you now? I think that the MTI turned to DOWN today.

[bryanmcn]

Juen 22, 2009

There are several TA indicators that are telling us that its time to get out of long positions in the market.

1) The TSX has retraced almost exactly half of its decline from last year and it seems to be turning down.
2) There have been significant gains that have been made since March. We can't expect this momentum to continue.
3) Its the start of summer and many traders are going on vacation and so they are cashing in and taking profits.
4) and ... the SSP has just changed there indicator to down!!

Of course we may see some recovery tomorrow but watch for "frothing", triple tops, head and shoulders or whatever you want to call it.
I say we are heading down as the summer progresses. And this could be the start of a VERY long bear market - like 10 years!
IMHO

[ge]

May be it is the time to buy some bearish etf?

[garilou]

Bryan,
I think this time we agree, at least partly,  that we are in for a pretty long bear market.
10 years! This time YOU are more pessimistic then me. You always seem to have a crystal ball that no one else has!

But you might be right. I think the whole capitalist system will have to change, and this will only go through an uncontrollable disaster.

Unfortunately, I am afraid that this will not be only an economic and/or financial disaster. (Am I out of topic?)

All the money that the US government (and many others including ours), has poured into some sectors is meant to bring back a system that will just continue to increase the disparities between the immensely rich minority and the immensely poor majority.
(Let's consider ourselves as lucky that we can at all "play" in the markets).

Back to market talk:
It will be highly time that SSP comes out with it's short portfolio.

I do not believe too much in the "Sell in May and buy in September", although this is what I personally wanted to do.
I think the traders are active the whole year round, especially in such markets.

And ge,
I guess you can buy bearish etf , but they are already pretty expensive.
Even with the markets having regained so much in the past few months, there are also pretty good short opportunities, if you can short.
Sometimes, bear markets are also good for penny stocks, but it's a dangerous game. And they are not "marginable". (I use my US margin to short US and Can. stocks)
I own one that I can't get rid of, I guess I'll have to take a big loss on that one. I am mad at my-self, because a few weeks ago I had such a nice gain on it, I became too confident, and the worse one can do, I became "greedy": too often I took my profits too early, this time I goofed, and I'll have to take a good loss on it.
Yesterday I went short (too early though) on IMN, and regained today more than my yesterday's loss.

Yep, for me lots of charts start to look pretty good 
Is it not the topic?

Louise

[garilou]

ge,
I forgot to mention that  for an RRSP, some Income Funds can also do pretty good and safe in bear markets.
I made quite a good profit and income with BPT.UN.
Now I have sold 1/2 of my position, (might sell the other half soon, not sure, but "the chart" does not look too good anymore because it is linked to energy I think ).
Now I just double my position of AW.UN (9.10 % yield).

The way the fund is linked to A&W is pretty complicated, but unfortunately, with the economic situation, fast food will probably keep it's head up.

Problem with this one: no volume! With the dam new rule of the TSE, no more "all or none", I got my second buy in 2 days, when I could have had it all today, because the price went down slightly. But you can't buy or sell at market, because there is always such a huge difference between ask and bid,  with so little volume, and the sellers usually so stubborn, buying at market would be very expensive.

Not trying to promote anything here. Just mentioning IFs to say that in bear markets, there are other things than staying at cash, etfs and short selling.
There are probably other interesting Income Funds that could do well.
I do not have Brian's crystal ball, so I might also be wrong.

Louise