ngx.to

[jeff]

hello dear sir, what happened to ngx.to in the LOW PEG portfolio? does NGX still have a chance to come back? Or, is it a good idea to buy at this price level since it's so cheap? it's only 0.77 cents now.

[Super Stock Picker]

Hello jeff,

NGX.TO is still part of the Low PEG Ratio portfolios because it shows a PEG Ratio (P/E divided by 5 years Growth Rate) lower than the minimum of this portfolio.

There is no other technical rules in this portfolio so we cannot tell if it is a good time to buy because it is currently cheap.

Other members who uses technical analysis could have an opinion on the topic, but I'm not sure they would recommend a buy right now...

[jeff]

dear sir,

thanks for your quick reply. ngx.to is rising today. i bought a lttle bit (2000 shares only) at 0.82. From the TA point of view, it's MACD has crossed up, and the RSI also looks like turning up. combined with your LOW PEG, i think i can give it a try.

Thanks.

[garilou]

Hi Jeff!

I'm sorry I did not read your post earlier.

Other members who uses technical analysis could have an opinion on the topic, but I'm not sure they would recommend a buy right now...

On the fundamental side:
OK, it's a profitable company.
If you rely on analysts, it is a consensus buy!(5 analysts)
Now I do not know why they are so enthusiastic, because at the same time, if the current fiscal year was close to a 88% EPS  increase, no investor looks at the current year.
Next fiscal year is projected at a 7.1% *decrease*.
Maybe the general "panic" brought it "too low".

But all the technical odds are against NGX.
This was a day trader move that you did.
Do not fight the wave!

If the analysts are right, they think in a long long term!

If you bought your 2000 NGX shares at 0.88, you've had your little run.
My opinion is that you should hurry up to sell!

One never knows: "penny stocks" sometime rise when the TSX falls.
(Who would have called NGX a penny stock a few years ago! I've owned it for a while)

And sometimes we take risks and it pays out.

You might want to put a stop à 0.80 or at 0.85 (its 2 supports for Nov.6), and place a sell order at 0.95, 1.00 if you dare.
You might have a small gain but in so few days, it's a good one.

No one ever lost money in taking small gains.  [who said that first?]

Good luck, and let us know!

Louise

[jeff]

Hi Louise , thank you so much for your detailed FA and TA analysis. I still have my 2000 shares and plan to sell it when it fell below 0.80. i look at the 20 day moving average. above 20 MA hold, below 20MA sell. yesterday (Thursday) i almost sold it. but since it was the first day below 20MA, i gave it one more day to fight back above the 20 MA. to my relief, today it managed to climb back above the 20 MA . let's see how it goes next week.

again, thank you very much and have nice weekend.
Jeff

[garilou]

Hi again Jeff,

I would like to understand why you seem to use exclusively the 20 days MA as technical indicator.
The 20 days MA (like any other) is totally arbitrary, except maybe that since lots of people look at it, they might do their decisions like you.
Others will use the 21 days MA, or the days 10 MA
But change it to a 27 days MA, and you are pretty much below, not to speak about the 50 days MA!

On Nov. 5, at 0.90, NGX crossed 3 MAs: (4,9,18 days) which gave it a short term bullish signal.
On Nov  6  the stock closed at 0.80 down 0.10!
On Nov. 6, it had crossed (down) its 21 days MA, which gave it a short term bearish signal.
On Nov. 7  the stock closed at 0.89, up 0.09.
On Nov. 7 (tonight) it has again crossed its 21 days MA, which give it again a short term bullish signal.
Will you trust this one?

Today the gold jump in the morning, and kept falling during the rest of the session.
NXG followed: started lower then climbed back up, then started to fall again, almost in sync with the gold price, (and so did the TSX) until a huge transaction happened a few minutes before the close which made it abruptly jump up to it max of 0.93, (which explains its crossing up the 21 days MA), then it fell back right away.
But the TSX kept falling all through the session.

There are so many other more reliable indicators, and especially when one looks at many of them.

NGX has a bad debt to capital ratio, and I'm pretty sure that most of it profits come more from speculations on the commodities than from gold extraction. This is dangerous!
But if the investors don't give a dam for the FA, they will let it go up... maybe.

Trust me a little bit, I've become quite good at anticipating the next close move:
I was short since 3 days on IBM.
It was my second short on IBM, the first one had brought a good gain too in 4 days.

But after a tremendous paper gain Wednesday and mostly Thursday, (and it was not Obama's fault), I did (in reverse because it was a short) exactly what I told you to do: I put a very high stop order, ($3.00 higher then the close on Thursday), and a buy order somewhat lower as the close: I covered my short early this morning 10 cents higher then the days low, and the stock ended 1.12$ higher then Thursday's close, so I realized an extra 135$ gain, for a total of more then $2500 US.
In 3 days!
With borrowed share  !

You still have a chance Monday.
I predict a high between 0.95 and 0.96, and a low between 0.86 and 0,87.
(And if I am right you give me an applaud!)

Decide what you want to risk (this will help you fix your stop, but do not forget that once a stop is triggered, it goes to the market, so a stop at 0.88 might make you sell at 0.85 if the gold takes another drop!)

Decide what you consider an acceptable (annualized) gain, at fix you sell order.

Give your orders right away, make them good for a few days: you can always change them.

But for now cash in any gain you could do.
Wait till the trend is really established, and jump back in.

It is not for nothing that SSP portfolio UPMv4 does the best, with its 4 weeks delay: you do not buy at the lowest, but you buy when the trend is strong!

Oh I don't know why I take so much time doing all that reasearch on a stock I do not own since a long time: it's your move anyway.
Maybe it is because I like that so much. Maybe because I like the people on this forum.
And because others might profit from it. I don't know really.

Have a good week-end too!

Louise

[jeff]

Hi Louise ,
again, thank you very much for your time and your wise advice. maybe i will do like this: if ngx is rising (or could produce a white candle) on Monday i will keep it, if i see it could close in the red i will sell it, doesn't matter if it's above or below 0.80.

i tend to believe if ngx could rise again next Monday, then last Thursday's drop maight be just a small bear trap and ngx may go higher from here. if ngx colse down on Monday, then for the very short term ngx's rebound from 0.69 low is over and ngx may go to test the 0.69 low or go even lower .

I 100% agree with what you said: "But for now cash in any gain you could do. Wait till the trend is really established, and jump back in." i failed to cash in gains recently and many many trades turnt from gaining to losing. many gains on paper are wiped out quickly before my eyes and i had to close the trades with a loss, in the fear that the loss could grower bigger.

Take care
Jeff

[garilou]

Hi again Jeff,
If you read my predictions for Monday, you can see that I agree with you that nxg could rise on Monday, unless Gold would take a serious drop.
I do  not know what you'd expect from a "White candlestick" on Monday.
It would need to be a quite long one.
Friday formed a very short white candlestick with much less volume than Thursday's black candlestick with more than twice the volume of Friday! Candle sticks are meaningful only when they form patterns, and are worthy only for the short term, so what's the point of talking about a rebound on its  0.69 low?

OK, we might be getting out of topic, and would need a longer discussion on candlesticks analysis.

What I do not understand is your reluctance to place orders in advance.
Waiting till Monday night might just be too late.

I used to hate stops, and I've learned my lesson!
In both ways: I sometimes got pushed out by a stop, on a trigger that lasted a few seconds, sometime it saved me from a bigger loss.
Now I do use them: if I feel uncertain about the next day trend, (and with a gold associated your are never too certain), but never without a sell order (or a buy order if Í am short) at the same time as the stop.
I place them the night before, even if I know that I'll be watching my critical stock(s) right at the next market open.

Jeff, please do not take it personnally, I just enjoy that kind of discussion.

Louise.   

[jeff]

Hi again Jeff,

...I predict a high between 0.95 and 0.96, and a low between 0.86 and 0,87.
(And if I am right you give me an applaud!)

Hi Louise,

My APPLAUD! ngx moved exactly like you predicted. ngx today's moving range:  0.89 - 0.98! closing: 0.94. AMAZING! since ngx closed positive, i still hold my shares.

Jeff

[garilou]

Thanks for the applaud, Jeff, but to me... it was not yet precise enough.
But your stock is so dependent on the gold price!
And gold stock have a tendency to over valuate (or devaluate) with the gold movements.
(which allowed me to short a gold stock, many many years ago, right in the middle of a gold terrible bull trend!)
My broker went crazy when I told him I wanted to short that stock! He even called me in the middle of the week-end at home!
But I won despite the horrendous commission that he took!

And I goofed totally with a similar prediction to Daniody.
But in his case, it was more "predictable" that I would goof 

Let's give it another try for tomorrow: (I'm testing my new prevision system):

I would have said:
High between 1.02 and 1.03 Low between, 0.93 and 0.94.
Because of the Gold volatility, and because the past days have given nxg a new starting up-trend, lets expand it a little bit:
High between 1.01 and 1.05 Low between, 0.91 and 0.95.

But this is *not* a buy or hold recommendation:
As the say "do your due diligence 
But since you have decided to hold anyway, (where I this time agree with, on the short term)...
Good luck.

Louise

[jeff]

Hi Louise,

what do you think about energy stock (including uranium stocks). i bought some cco.to, xgd.to, chk yesterday but are not sure if i made a mistake or not. i am thinking if i should dump them today. yesterday's crude rally early in the morning lured me into the energy sector.

thanks

Jeff

[garilou]

Hi Jeff,
I like doing research, but I won't become your financial counsellor,
I am not qualified for that.

And then anyway you should have asked me that yesterday.

Just a few comments, because we are getting out of topic,

1. This one is very general: unless it has been recommended by SSP in a portfolio equal or higher then UPMv3, stay away from stocks linked to resources.
Unless you have other stocks in your portfolio that I don't know of, everything I see in yours is linked to commodities.

2. Even if you were short term trading on a stock, do not get lured, even for one day trade,on one day performance, into buying any stock, but mostly again those linked to resources.

3. More specifically, you are already holding to ngx that is linked to Gold. So if you buy xgd too, your portfolio becomes too much loaded with stocks heavily linked to gold, that is (as we can see) so unpredictable in these times. Diversify a little bit, and try to find stocks that eather won't be too affected by the economy crisis, or stocks that give tremendous dividends like BPT.UN that gives 17% yield, (preaching for my own church: I bought it on Nov 7, and have already a 6.68 % gain, and the day is not finished!) but do not only trust the high dividend: it might also, especially with income trusts, be a sign that even with that high dividend, investors do not like that stock.


4. CCO is also linked to commodities.
Although yesterday you could not have this news:

   SASKATOON, SASKATCHEWAN, Nov 11, 2008 (Marketwire via COMTEX) -- (Marketwire)


   ALL AMOUNTS ARE STATED IN CDN $ (UNLESS NOTED)

   Cameco Corporation (TSX:CCO) (NYSE:CCJ) today reported third quarter 2008 adjusted net earnings(1) of $142 million ($0.41 per share adjusted and diluted), 46% lower than in the third quarter of 2007. This was due to lower earnings in the uranium business, partially offset by improved results in the electricity and gold businesses.
   

"someone" knew, because the stock had already gone down a lot!   
 

So try to learn how to read charts, and before you go into a commodity linked stock, look how this commodity is performing.

You can find out easily on http://futures.tradingcharts.com and look at the weekly charts, they tell you more about the general trend.
There you could have seen how "unfriendly" Uranium is in those times, and how volatile gold is, without showing any up trend.

5. Unless you have no money outside your RSSP, learn how to short! But to short right and timely, you need some experience, so for a while, do it on paper.
One day I'll publish my own strategy about how to choose a stock to short, because this seems to be my speciality: even in upwards markets, I almost never lose on shorts.

I understand not everyone has the time to do a lot of research, so I guess my best advise would be to stick to SSP recommendations.  On their site, you can see which portfolio does better and follow it: they do the research for you!

And they are supposed to send us UP DOWN signals, and I guess this will not be good only for their portfolios, it will be good  for any long position!

Good luck, and be careful!

Louise