Our Indicator Current Value

[Super Stock Picker]

so if TSX couldn't close above 9493 for Dec 1st, i guess a new date with a new number will be set and we can see the changes then on this board, am i right?

Thanks

Hello jeff,

That's right. As we are close to the alert value, we'll update this post on a daily basis. This way, you'll be able to know what's the alert value for the next trading day.

And the same applies if the TSX closes above 9493 as there will be a new alert level set for the next DOWN signal as well.

[garilou]

Hi SSP,

I am still a little bit confused. 
I have re-read all the posts and replies in this topic (Our Indicator Current Value ) and in the topic Introduction to our Market Timing, since the beginning.

In your post from 10 November 2008 you wrote:

Also, note that we have introduced an alert level in the post that gives the current value of our indicator.

From which post were you talking about?

On 12 November 2008, you wrote:

We are currently busy integrating this indicator into our system.

 
Since then, it seems that you have been more busy installing your "TRADE CFD" on your web site, as the MARKET TIMING tab  still refers to this topic. (Not talking of the French part of the web site!!!).

According to your spreadsheet TSX_timing.xls, we would be on a DOWN signal since September 2, which means that since then, we should have been "at cash", and none of your buy orders should have been "obeyed".
But you keep publish daily performances. Yes, I remember: both system will go on, one blind to the other one. I mean: your initial system will keep generating buy and sell orders, and it will be up to each of us, either to stay at cash (because of the DOWN Timing system), or to decide to go with the orders.

Since you published that spreadsheet, I have never read about this level of 9493.00 set for Dec.1st in this topic, until you replied to Bryan's "Giddyup" reply (Reply #13 )!

Have I missed something? Where should I have seen that the "target" was 9493, and the target day Dec. 1st, (if Bryan had not written his "Giddyup" reply)?

Where did Bryan (and maybe others) find that?
Has my ignorance something to do with the fact that I receive my daily Orders in French?

Anyway, if the SSP does NOT close at or over 9493 tomorrow -Dec.1- (no matter if it touches it during the day) we will still be under the DOWN "regime".

In your last reply to Jeff, you write:

..if the TSX closes above 9493 there will be a new alert level set for the next DOWN signal as well

And if it does, where will we find this? Will there be a date attached to it?

It's OK to KISS (KEEP IT STUPID SIMPLE as you replied to me a while ago), but maybe we could also say MICS (MAKE IT CLEAR STUPID)   

Louise

[bryanmcn]

Hi louis
I think I can answer your questions;
The indicator with the 9493 taget is here;
http://www.superstockpicker.com/forum/index.php?topic=746.0
As for the answers to your other questions;
 - Yes
 - Same URL as above
 - Same URL as above
 - Maybe
 - Yes
 - Same URL as above
 - Yes

Ha ha!

[Super Stock Picker]

Hi Louise,

The alert level was first introduced in this post:
http://www.superstockpicker.com/forum/index.php?topic=746.msg1848#msg1848

This is a level that changes every day, it gives you the value the TSX should reach in order to generate a new signal. Indeed, our algorithm makes it easy for us to find what value is needed to make a change if reached at the next trading day close, so we will publish it.

So, no crystal ball were used to get Dec-01 and 9493. The value was found on Friday and the alert level is then set for the next trading day.

For the time being, as bryanmcn has pointed you, this value is refreshed in the first post of this thread that gives the current indicator value.

And to answer another one of your questions:
You have received the exact same information if you receive our orders in French or in English.

[garilou]

Hi SSP,

OK I had not realized that the specific post was the one that was updated after each trading day.
Is it not rather
http://www.superstockpicker.com/forum/index.php?topic=746.msg1799#msg1799 ?

So now I know that I just have to check that specific post (that I have bookmarked) regularly.

So tonight, you will establish another alert level and post it there. Right?

Sorry sometimes I am fast sometimes it seems that I am quite slow...

Thanks for your reply.

Louise

[Super Stock Picker]

Hi Louise,

Yes, the link you propose is the best to see the indicator current value and the alert level without any scrolling.

And yes, we have now updated the value with the new figure for Dec-02.

[garilou]

Hi SSP,

At last I got it right.
Maybe, on your site, under the MARKET TIMING tab, you could replace or add the link to that specific post.
People would find it faster. Just an idea.

Now we would need a hell of a jump tomorrow, to get a new signal!


Thanks,

Louise

[bryanmcn]

Dec 2, 2008 new indicator value is 9420.20
For archive purposes.

[Super Stock Picker]

Dec 2, 2008 new indicator value is 9420.20
For archive purposes.

To be exact, the indicator can only get two values, UP or DOWN.
What is set to 9420.20 on Dec-02 is the alert value which is the level the TSX should reach to generate a new (UP) signal.

[garilou]

Thuesday Dec 16 1:12 AM
Hi SSP,
No update for today?

Our Indicator Current Value :
« Last Edit: 12 December 2008, 19:51:30 by Super Stock Picker »

Louise

[Super Stock Picker]

Thuesday Dec 16 1:12 AM
Hi SSP,
No update for today?

Our Indicator Current Value :
« Last Edit: 12 December 2008, 19:51:30 by Super Stock Picker »

Louise

Done.

Alert level is now set under 9000.

[sawyer]

Hello SSP,

I just wanted to say Happy New Year and congratulate you on a wonderful site. I used your Market Timing Indicator (MTI) as an excuse to overweight equities on December 29th. IMHO, I believe the market oversold and guessing the indicator would go long on the 29th, invested about mid day. So far, so good. Although possible to get whip sawed, I would rather this risk, then end up holding equities in a down trending market. This year was very bad for equity investors, (me inparticular) so good riddance to 2008.

My question is in regard to your MTI. The UP/DOWN signal is generated by using a few simple moving averages. Right? Assuming we get continued UP signals, is the alert level (now at 8463) going to follow the market up? It doesn't appear to have moved. If it does, move up over time, can the difference between market closing and the alert level, be used in any useful way? With the start of the narrowing of the spread perhaps suggesting a town turn. Also, does your 'TSX_timing' calculate the alert level. If it does, would you be able to attached the updated sheet?

Perhaps this question is better for another thread, but I notice, two stocks, (WPK & SXC) to be in 7 of your portfolios at the same time!!! It would seem if there was ever a time, it would be now. Your thoughts?

Thanks again SSP
Dave
 

[bryanmcn]

Finally!
We have a positive market timing indicator. Giddyup

[Super Stock Picker]

Hello sawyer,

Our Market Timing Indicator is indeed build around simple moving averages but it is definitively not as simple as moving averages :-)

So, yes, the alert level should somehow follow the direction of the market, but for sure, there will be some days when it will not be the case.

And we haven't studied yet if there is something interesting in the spread between the alert level and the the close value of the market. The most obvious information is that when both are getting close, then the odds to get a new signal are higher...

It will not be possible to publish the history of the alert level the same way as the indicator here on the forum. But when the tool will be fully implemented then, we should be able to publish both historical values. Then, those files will be available for download.

---

And regarding the other part of your question, when a stock is present in all our Price Momentum portfolios, it just mean that is has been bought in the Price Momentum Weekly at least 5 weeks ago and it has not received a sell order yet (plus it has been caught by the monthly version too).
Actually, a simpler way to see that is just to look at the holdings in the Ultimate Price Momentum v5 and you get the full list of stocks that are in all our weekly versions of our Price Momentum portfolios.

[sawyer]

Thank you SSP,

The 29th was one of those days when the odds of a new signal being generated were good. For those using it as a reason to go long, the timing was excellent. It called the market right-on! Congratulations to whoever designed the indicator. Now, with the alert level lowering slightly, as the market rises, we can hold our longs overnight! :-)

The rise in the agricultural and energy stocks, since the December 29th, has been dramatic. I guess a rising tide, lifts all boats, but these sectors did very well. Perhaps as these sectors were so oversold. My best performer since the 29th was VT with over a 20% return. I couldn't bring myself to hold it over this weekend.

The difference between the alert level and where the market closes might yield some interesting information for trading. Your MTI, had you out of the market between Sept and Dec, which is great, but there were opportunities, in these months. As an example, I was invested quite heavily on the long side shortly before the US election, having bought on dips. I should have got out on Nov 4th, (with a significant gain) but hung on past the 4th. I was wondering if knowing this difference might have helped me make the decision to exit. For sure, knowing the history and the alert level would help make a more informed decision.

Thanks for answering my questions.
Dave