Our Indicator Current Value

[Super Stock Picker]

-- This thread is not updated anymore --
-- Please, refer to the MARKET TIMING tab for the current value of our indicator (ou en Francais)--

Hello,

We are currently busy coding our Indicator into our system, and it will take some time before everything is ready.

In the mean time, we will publish here the current value of this indicator plus the last 5 changes.

Note than since Jan-30, our Market Timing Indicator is now included in our daily emails. See this thread for more info.

Our Market Timing Indicator Current Value is UP

Also, note that on Mar-31, the alert level is set to 7961.21 (If the TSX closes below this value, the timing indicator will generate a new signal).

The last five changes are:

Date	Signal
17-MAR-09	UP
11-Feb-09	DOWN
05-Feb-09	UP
29-Jan-09	DOWN
28-Jan-09	UP

[DCA]

So if I understand correctly it has been down since September 2nd?

Can't say I am suprised.

D

[Super Stock Picker]

That's right.

If you check the pictures and Excel files in the other thread about the Indicator, you'll see the performance lines flat as they are then all cash.

[garilou]

Hi SSP,

You write:

... you'll see the performance lines flat as they are then all cash.

But is your system totally out of your control?
We still received enough buy orders (admittedly some have done pretty well, considering the market performances) well after September 2nd!
Maybe the "market timing indicator" completely conceived on that day, but even after your first posts about it, we still receive buy orders!
Should you not.. pull the plug? (Joking)

Louise

[Super Stock Picker]

Hello Louise,

Indeed, our system will still generate all the buy and sell orders in the former portfolios even with the addition of our timing indicator.

When the timing is DOWN, we recommend to be cash and not to follow the orders in the former portfolios.
When the timing turns UP again, we recommend to buy the content of the portfolios and to start following the orders again.

I hope that makes it more clear now.

[Super Stock Picker]

Also, note that we have introduced an alert level in the post that gives the current value of our indicator.

This alert level is the value that would make our indicator to switch if the TSX would close above this limit. This way, it is easier to anticipate the new signals.

[jeff]

Dear SSP,

could you please send us an email and let us know when the " Market Timing Indicator " has changed? This way we don't have to log in everyday to check if the  Market Timing Indicator has turnt up/down or not.

thanks
Jeff

[garilou]

Jeff

could you please send us an email and let us know when the " Market Timing Indicator " has changed?

This is exactly what SSP just wrote:

note that we have introduced an alert level in the post that gives the current value of our indicator.

But SSP, if we wanted to find the the timing signal on the site, where would it be?

I also have a question (or a comment) regarding your last reply to me:

When the timing turns UP again, we recommend to buy the content of the portfolios and to start following the orders again.

I would agree right away to the second part, about following the new orders.
As for the first part, "buy the content of the portfolios"... I'ld be a little more sceptic: a stock that did well before the DOWN signal might not do as well after the timing turns UP again:we might just buy stocks that would receive a sell order 2 days later. It is not always clear if the stock went down because of the whole market trend, or if something specific to that stock also changed, shadowed by the down trend of the market.
But I'll wait and see what it gives.

Louise

PS: I just received the last order post and I thought of a suggestion: maybe you could systematically have a place in those emails, where we could see right away: "Timing indicator: UP - DOWN - NONE".
I receive my orders in the French version, I don't know if it makes a difference, but until now, I have not seen a single "timing indicator".

[Super Stock Picker]

Dear SSP,

could you please send us an email and let us know when the " Market Timing Indicator " has changed? This way we don't have to log in everyday to check if the  Market Timing Indicator has turnt up/down or not.

thanks
Jeff

Hello Jeff,

This will be done for sure, but it will still take some time to implement. For the time being we share the indicator value only in this thread.

We are currently busy integrating this indicator into our system. Once it will be done, it will appear in the daily email.

[Super Stock Picker]

Louise,

When the coding will be done, some pages on the site will be automatically updated for the Timing Indicator the same way as what is currently done for the portfolios.

We will add a tab in the navigation bar, that we should name "Market Timing", and this will be the entry page for everything about our Timing Indicator: explanation, links to theory, historical signals and so on.

The current value of the indicator will also show up in some way on the homepage.

But let's do the coding first...

Regarding your other question, you really have to see the timing as an extra layer on top of the former portfolios. It is like a on/off switch.
But as you say, there is no warranty that a stock will not be a sell in 2 days, the same way as now, you don't know if you will have to sell in a week what you buy today.

Also, at some time, our indicator can produce glitches, and then generate buy and sell orders quite close to each other. We have tried to find a solution that limits the drawbacks, but there is a price to pay to get the comfort of the improved performances (more exactly lower volatility)

[garilou]

Hi SSP,
Thanks for this extra explanation.
I guess it'll be up to us, when a DOWN Market Timing Signal turns off to do our "due diligence" in order to decide whether we step back in with all or some of the previous portfolio holdings, or wait for new orders.

I'm sure it will be useful.


Louise.

[bryanmcn]

Nov 29th
Only 243.57 points to go before the SSP indicator turns bullish.
Will we make it before the holidays?

[Super Stock Picker]

Hello bryanmcn,

Actually, it is a bit less than that as the alert value for Dec 1st is set to 9493.00.

[bryanmcn]

223 points then. Giddyup!

[jeff]

Hello bryanmcn,

Actually, it is a bit less than that as the alert value for Dec 1st is set to 9493.00.

so if TSX couldn't close above 9493 for Dec 1st, i guess a new date with a new number will be set and we can see the changes then on this board, am i right?

Thanks