PGF.UN - Analysts opinions

[garilou]

PGF.UN just made it to the first level of SSP:Earnings Estimate Upgrades Monthly
Since my post of today about the trust we should have in analysts, (http://www.superstockpicker.com/forum/index.php?topic=724.0 ) I started to look around.

The following might be long. But I hope it will help some people to make up their minds in such a difficult time.

My conclusion:
Weather upgraded or downgraded is one thing: all targets gives plenty of room for profit (although the technicals are not too good in the moment)
I'll probably buy it again (I've owned it before), but wait maybe till it makes up to other portfolios.
(But maybe short it till then for a few days... )


But such differences between 2008 and 2009 earning estimates!!!

So again my question to SSP: which one of those would be reliable, if analysts earning estimates are the first filter?

Louise

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Gold GlobeInvestor
   Current Recommendation (# brokers: 7) Consensus HOLD
   Current Fiscal Year :
   Date    Mean EPS    Yr Ago EPS    % Change
   Dec 08  0.36         -0.32                    212.5%
   Dec 09  1.63             352.8% !!!
   Question: then why just a HOLD?

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New Ratings
Pengrowth Energy Trust:
    In a research note published on August 15, analysts at UBS upgrade Pengrowth Energy Trust (PGH) from "neutral" to "buy." The 12-month target price is set to C$20.
 
    Pengrowth Energy upgraded to "buy"
    08/11/08 - Citigroup
    NEW YORK, August 11 (newratings.com) - Analysts at Citigroup upgrade Pengrowth Energy (PGH) from "hold" to "buy."
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MSM: 
   Number of Analysts 1
   FY(12/08)    1.36 
   FY(12/09)    0.94
 
       Growth Rate
   FY(12/08)    +553.33% 
   FY(12/09)    -30.88%
(Data provided by Zack)

MSM StockScouter    
   Grade 7: Pengrowth Energy Units, a mid-cap growth company in the energy sector, is expected to match the market over the next six months with less than average risk.
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Hoover : Also data provided by Zack: so same as MSM.

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Reuter
    UPDATE 1-Dundee cuts Paramount, Pengrowth to "neutral"
    Wed Sep 24, 2008 10:38am ED
    Price Targets:
    Previous: 22.00
    Current:  17.50
        
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finance.yahoo.com
   Analyst Estimates: everywhere: N/A
   Analyst Opinion  Mean Recommendation: 2 (Scale 1 to 5)
   PRICE TARGET SUMMARY:
   Mean Target: 20.32
   Median Target: 20.32
   High Target: 20.32
   Low Target: 20.32
   No. of Brokers: 1
   
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http://network.nationalpost.com (Just a blog reporting)
   FP Trading Desk:
   Analyst Grant Hofer
   On the flipside, the analyst highlighted Harvest Energy Trust and Pengrowth Energy Trust as having relatively weaker balance sheets and higher payouts.

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Dow Jones Newswires (As of today)
   Pengrowth Tgt Cut To C$18 From C$21.50 By Tristone >PGH
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VectorVest Stock Analysis of Pengrowth Engy:
Long, but main points:
PGH is undervalued compared to its Price of $10.60 per share, has somewhat below average safety, and is currently rated a Sell.

Value:PGH has a current Value of $21.97 per share. Therefore, it is undervalued compared to its Price of $10.60 per share.
RV (Relative Value):  PGH has an RV of 1.51, which is excellent on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00.
RS (Relative Safety): PGH has an RS rating of 0.75, which is poor on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00.
RT (Relative Timing): PGH has a Relative Timing rating of 0.31, which is very poor on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00.
VST (VST-Vector):  (VST is the master indicator for ranking every stock in the VectorVest database)
            PGH has a VST rating of 0.93, which is fair on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00.
Recommendation (REC): PGH has a Sell recommendation.
GRT (Earnings Growth Rate):PGH has a forecasted Earnings Growth Rate of 21.00%, which VectorVest considers to be excellent.
EPS (Earnings per Share):  PGH has a forecasted EPS of $1.07 per share.
P/E (Price to Earnings Ratio): PGH has a P/E of 9.91
EY (Earnings Yield): PGH has an EY of 10.09 percent. This is above the current average of 3.89% for all the stocks in the VectorVest database.
GPE (Growth to P/E Ratio): PGH has a GPE rating of 2.12.
     A stock is commonly considered to be undervalued when GPE is greater than 1.00 and overvalued when GPE is below 1.00. Unfortunately, this rule of thumb does not take into account the effect of interest rates on P/E ratios. The operative GPE ratio of 1.00 is valid when and only when interest rates equal 10%. With long-term interest rates currently at 7.56%, the operative GPE ratio is 0.57. Therefore, PGH may be considered to be undervalued.
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[Super Stock Picker]

Hi Louise,

PGF.UN just made it to the first level of SSP:Earnings Estimate Upgrades Monthly

Just a note about that because I feel there is a confusion here.
The Earnings Estimate Upgrades and the first level filter of the Price Momentum Weekly are not the same thing.

The analysts recommendations, actually only the upgrades, are the single criteria of the Earnings Estimate Upgrades portfolios.

In the case of the Price Momentum portfolios, the analysts recommendations is only checked to see if a recommendation exists and if it is better than hold. There is no difference between all the other type of recommendations, would it be buy or strong buy, etc...

[garilou]

Hi SSP,

I am in part happy to read what you wrote, and it was a good thing to correct my misunderstanding.

You write:

In the case of the Price Momentum portfolios, the analysts recommendations is only checked to see if a recommendation exists and if it is better than hold.

Still my question stays:
Even if is not the first filter for the Momentum portfolios, (that makes me feel better),which analysts do you trust? I think that you mentioned Zack once.

As you could see from my long post, I too check them, lots of them.
But I am so often puzzled.
In the same day or close days, you can have one upgrading from hold to buy, and another one downgrading from buy to hold, (or whatever the vocabulary they use).

Or they keep their rating and lower their price target.
In the case of PGF.UN, even in small differences in price target, there was still room for lots of gain, (even more today, the dividend is now incredibly high! 24.09%)

If a stock is recommended by only one analyst, do you know who did it?

I once complained to a big company, when an analyst kept rating so positively a stock, his earning forecasts so high, the momentum was loosing ground, but based on his recommendation, I did what I'll never do again, bought more of the stock, and it tumbles the next day of his recommendation, (and not during a market like the one we have now!)

And something funny happened: I sent the email to the firm, I did not know the name of the analyst.
The person who received my email wanted to forward it to the analyst, made a mistake and forwarded it back to me with the comment: "Here's one for you, Jack, see how you can you reply to this!" (or something similar). LOL!
Not funny though was my loss!

To be honest, I found out later it was not totally his negligence, there is still a class action pending (after at least 2 years!) on that company for a misrepresentation of its results. I'm still waiting to see if I'll get something back!
[It happened once to me that I got back some money from a class action.]

Still, when they come to so contradictory earning estimates forecasts as those that I gave in example, who do you trust?
If only one analyst reviews the stock with a BUY rating, is that good enough?

Louise