SSP during a drawdown

[bryanmcn]

I'm posting this more for future reference. RIght now July 9, 2008 the SSP V1 has posted a 1 month return of -27%, 3 month return of -5.4%, 6 month return of -.8% and a one year return of -19.5%.(All negative)
SSP is very volitile. When its performance is good its very good and this board raves and applauds, but when its bad, like now it is VERY bad and the board goes quiet. Now it's summer so that may be another reason for less postings.

These results can change dramatically from one month to the next. By this time in September 08 I predict that the numbers will be all positive.

I am completely in cash and was lucky to get out at the top. I would like to see the V1 index get down to 750. That would be a great buying op and I might even cut my trading vacation short to enter into a few positions.

Care to add your prediction?

[wm]

high returns are synonym with high volatility. Great for you if you got out at the top but, if this is true, it should be pure luck and I am sure you don't match the upside returns if you are trying to pick tops and bottoms. My exit strategy get me out anywhere from -20% to -30% from the top, I never sell at top but I am almost sure the get all the uptrend...

[bryanmcn]

As a reference we are now Aug 29, 2008 and the SSP has not had a good summer.

The weekly is down  29% in the past 3 months and the V1 is down over 31%. For the year  - Weekly is down 25% and the V1 is down 32%.

From its high in June the V1 has suffered a 48% drawdown. Man! How did you guys weather this storm?

I had hoped that the V1 would get below 750. It did that last week and I predict that it is at its low.

So it looks like a GREAT time to get in! The TSX has made a higher low and is now making a higher high. That is the definition of a bull trend.

I am back in after being in (US) cash all summer.

Bought RNO at $6.40, VRK at $.90 and MOX at $2.36

Also picked up some BNK, ERF.un and Pwt.un today. (Does anyone else watch the old SSP picks?)

Bryan

[garilou]

Wow, bryannec

This is an optimistic post!

Does anyone else watch the old SSP picks?

I sure do!
I've been mostly doing shorts during the summer, (both US and CND) and yes, the old picks from SSP are a fantastic source of CND stocks to short! I just shorted WTN! After I made great with 3 shortings on INM (I shorted also others that were not on SSP previous positions got only 6 voters   )

I am back in after being in (US) cash all summer.

What I do not understand, when you told me you could not short, because all your money was in your RSSP:
Do you trade US in your RSSP? I've done it twice, but the exchange rates were killing me! I've stopped that.
But if you have a separate US account (I mean apart from your RRSP) you could short.

My US money is in a separate account, apart from my RSSP, I have a Canadian trading account that is almost always empty, but I use the US account balance and margin to short in CND. As soon as the profits from the shorts are transferred in my CND account, I transfer the money to my bank account: this is my "end of the month rounding up"... I paid all the repairs and works on my house and garden with those shorts.
Did you make your predictions in my poll:
http://www.superstockpicker.com/forum/index.php?topic=666 ?
(Too bad, it closed to-night August 29 )

Have a good new trading season!

Louise

[bryanmcn]

TD Waterhouse allows me to buy a "US Money Market Fund" inside my RSP. Same as holding US cash (with a bit of interest). They also allow me to trade US stocks and "Wash the trade" ie- avoid the currency conversion bank costs by using the US Money Market Fund.

[bryanmcn]

So I couldn't have been more wrong about the market direction. The markets reversed and have now created a new low. I am again back in cash, licking my wounds and ready to fight another day.

[bryanmcn]

As of Sept 9, 2008
Looking at some performance numbers.
The V1 was at 1084 on Oct 10, 2007.
This means that it needs to rise by 68% from where it is now to Oct 10, 2008 to post a 0% yearly gain.
This is a mighty tall task. It could be done ... but it better start happening soon!
I've been following the SSP portfolios for a couple of years and have never seen it go through this much of a draw down.
How are we all faring?

[DCA]

Ever watch Ice Age?  Do you know those shorts of Scratchy chasing the elusice acorn?

You know the one where he pluments of the cliff, slides down the scree slope on his but, is flung into the icthyosaur infested pool....

Yep, I can relate.

D

[bryanmcn]

I searched through dozens of stock charts and found a couple that look like they have some positive momentum dispite the dropping markets. Looking only at the charts I picked FSY and BPO (both on the TSX)

Does anyone else own these?

[Super Stock Picker]

FYI, FSY is currently one of the stocks in the Price Momentum Monthly portfolio.

[Victor]

Bryan, given the sells and the fact that HYG and MOX hit my stops... I'm out, for now.  I had promised a "year with SSP" review, and I hope to post it sometime soon.  It's just been crazy busy since summer came to an end (at least in the west!).

Cheers,

Victor

[bryanmcn]

I am also in Fel.to at $12.20

[garilou]

Hi Bryan,

Would be so kind and explain how you came to make this choice of FEL?
I've looked at it, and was not too sure.

Victor,
I understand that you may be so busy, but I am really impatient to read your "year with SSP" !

Wish you both a "Happy new Trading Year"

Louise

[Super Stock Picker]

Louise,

FEL is one of the stock currently in the Price Momentum Weekly portfolio.

[garilou]

Oups!
Missed that one....

Sorry!

Louise