New Orders

[Victor]

Hi, I haven't received the update email this weekend, but noticed the updates on the website.

TIM is finally sold!  Although I stopped out earlier in the week, those who follow the buy/sell recommendations on the site sure have had a good ride with this one.  It was purchased some time before I began using the site, so although TIM has been profitable for me, anyone who picked it up on the original buy date has made a killing.  TIM and CUQ have made the whole experiment profitable.  We'll have to wait and see if another pick is able to take the torch.

I also stopped out on IMP earlier in the week, finishing its run as my second worst performer since I started (ALS is my biggest loser).

I'm not surprised to see PBG go after its continual decline over the past couple of weeks.  I currently have it down about 3%.

Kinross (K) was added to the weekly momentum portfolio.  We'll see how it does in the week ahead.  Gold is making quite the run so I don't expect K to spend time resting this week.  Either it will rocket, along with gold, or give up substantially as it already has quite an upward trend.

With a wait-and-see on K, I've currently got PTS, JAG, BNK, and BIR in the portfolio.  The first two with small losses and the latter pair with silghtly higher profits, for a marginal overall gain on open positions.

Since starting this project I now have 13 losers and 3 winners in  closed positions.  Profits in CUQ, TIM, and DRX outweigh the losses for an overall profitable outcome.  On a trade by trade basis (more than one round-trip trade per stock is possible) for closed positions I've got 21 wins, 36 losses for a winning percentage of 37%.  The average win is 30% and average loss is -9%.  The strategy's edge now stands just over 5%.

In 174 days the return on my portfolio stands at 10%.

Comments welcome.

Cheers,

Victor

[owler]

Hi, interesting results you mentionned Victor, what portfolio are you following exactly? Since buying order have just be given for MS and BIR, in the UPMV2, i assume it might be UPMV1 or weekly. What about MS? I saw it added in weekly in the same buying order as BIR, don't you have some?

R. Bradley

[Victor]

Hi R. Bradley,

I've had MS for some time so when the order came through I did not add to this portfolio.

Check out my other posts for more in depth description of what I'm doing.  I'm combining the strategies and applying my own position sizing algorithms.

Cheers,

Victor

[bryanmcn]

Hi
My email recieved March 25th/08 lists Penn West Energy Trust symbol as PWT/DA.TO. It is actually PWT/UN.TO.

[bryanmcn]

I have been watching the charts of the SSP portfolios and they seem to follow a predictable pattern. Take the V1 for example. Look at the chart. Based on previous moves, can anyone see where its headed next?

[Victor]

It would be nice if there was a pattern, but I think it's just the mind trying to fit a pattern to the data.  In all likelihood, when you try to use this information (after the pattern has been gleaned) it will fail.

It's been a while since my last post...

I've changed my allocation scheme and now simply wait for V3 to pick up a stock.  The trading activity starting with V1 and adding on later was just too much.  And the risk I was taking was too much as well.  Cut way back on the risk parameters and am waiting for the system to get back into good form.  Mind you this might be a while.  It does seem that while the system is more volatile than the indexes, there is definitely some correlation there, especially since the downturn began for equities. 

I'll add-on if I move stops up, which hasn't happened for some time.

Performance was starting to pick up again with GCE, but this past week has given some of that back.

Just have to wait and see...

Cheers,

Victor

[LuckyWon]

Hey Bryanmcn,

I agree with Victor.  It has been my experience that as soon as I recognize a pattern and act on it, the pattern changes. 

I too have changed my game plan... a few times now.  But I think that I have settled into one that I will stick with now.

Originally I was following the v3 with some of my own technical analysis, however that cost me lots of gains on TIM.  So I then just followed V3 as close as possible trying to take out any of my own analysis or emotion.  I seem to have some problems over the last few months getting the emails (anyone else having that problem?).  I actually think that it was more related to Yahoo than SSP.  So on occasion I was buying later than v3, and sometimes selling later too.

I have recently decided to switch to v4 from v3.  It seemed a good time to do so as the holdings were the same.  But I don't follow it exactly.  I am going to buy sometime between v3 and v4, but I will always sell on time.  v4 has a better performance that v3 lately as well.

Lucky

[DCA]

I never believe in patterns.  If they could be found and acted on then any idiot could make money.

It is curious to see others dropping V1 & V2.  I recently did that myself.  If the fundamentals look good I invest a taste at V3, but save the heavy hitting for V4, V5 & beyond.

I have another guilty secret:  I never sold off all my TIM.  (And a chunk of what I did sell I re-bought in my RRSP)

[bryanmcn]

I talked to the head of a  large national investing firm a few years back about tecnical analysis. He said that although he had no clue as to how it worked, the traders in his office that used it, consistently did better than traders using fundamentals.
If been using TA for over 15 years. I started before there were sites with charts. I would chart my favorites nightly by hand!
Its done well for me.

[Super Stock Picker]

I never believe in patterns.  If they could be found and acted on then any idiot could make money.

Well, SSP is run by a software, following the same pattern over and over...

But, I think you're right, you need your brain to setup the system, and then, to apply it efficiently, you have to be as dumb as possible, and never second guess a buy or sell order...

[elizabeth]

Has anyone used stock market numbers to play the lottery games? Have you had strategies for that?

thank you

[bryanmcn]

Atually many people say that those who play the stock market have a gamblers mentality. That is, in fact, what we fight constantly as traders. To avoid the emotional "rush" of a win or trying to avoid the "feelings" of a loss when we sell. Stock trading SHOULD NOT be emotional, however there are very few that can buy and sell robotically as the SSP methodology requires.
I know I can't and I've been at it for 18 years!

[Super Stock Picker]

I have been watching the charts of the SSP portfolios and they seem to follow a predictable pattern. Take the V1 for example. Look at the chart. Based on previous moves, can anyone see where its headed next?

Hi bryanmcn,

I thought it was a good time to bring your remark back at the top of the list...

Did you have any number in mind back at that time?

[Super Stock Picker]

Hi bryanmcn, Victor and DCA,

Due to a server failure, we had to restore a one-week old backup. As a result, you last discussion has been lost.

Really sorry for the trouble...

[bryanmcn]

My predictions!

Hopefully the moderators will loose these postings and I will be able to repost in Sept 08 

All of the SSP portfolios have a rolling pattern to them. Just look at the charts under portfolios. They make significant gains, the board postings go up, rave reviews come in and everyone gets giddy. Then about every 3 to 6 months there is a correction. Draw downs can be significant. In 2006 and 2007 they were close to 40%. The board goes quiet. We all retreat to lick our wounds. Then another wave of gains begin and the cycle repeats.

In the past 3 months all of the portfolios have experienced amazing results. The weekly and V1 are presently reporting 77% and 79% gains for the past 3 months! The others are all over 100%.

WARNING!!! We are due for a correction!!