Anyone used SSP for 2016 - Which portfolio - What was the return?

[newinvestor1]

Hi,
I plan to use SSP. I went through many articles and forum discussions. I plan to go with $30,000 to $35,000 portfolio.

Has any one used SSP portfolios in the way the they explained to follow for 2016. Would you be able to discuss the returns gained and the strategy followed?

[newinvestor1]

I see some virtual portfolios maintained by SSP admins in the past (years ago). Is anyone investing by following SSP as per the strategy they mentioned?  Please let me know.  If anyone had bad experience and incurred losses, I would like to be cautious and learn from their mistakes. Please share your experiences.

[bryanmcn]

I am using the UPM V1 with about $30K. It is overwhelmingly tempting to "tweak".   I am suppose to be out of YGR and buy DEE but there was a "hold" signal from one of the stock news sites for DEE and it went down the day after we were to buy. YGR, on the other hand shows strength and seems to be climbing so I  still hold it.
In the past I have been burnt by this strategy and wished that I had just followed the portfolio blindly. So the lesson is "ignorance is bliss."
I've also noticed that the portfolios tend to rise and fall in waves. Buying in after a big bullish period (like last year) is probably not too smart. But if you hold for multiple years it shouldn't matter that much. 
IMHO

[bryanmcn]

So now I see SSP has DEE as a sell for Monday so I guess I missed a small bullet there.

[newinvestor1]

Thank you bryanmcn.  Appreciate your feedback. I am planning to use UPM v2. So, are you now following UPM v1, but sometimes use your own strategy on the stocks SSP proposed to buy and sell? 

Do you use limit orders or market orders for SSP stock picks?

Any others using SSP strategy as it is ?

[bryanmcn]

I use market orders most of the time. SSP has done a good job of picking stocks that have enough volume to allow for that.
I will warn you that the V1 has some pretty violent swings. In 2015 it lost over 30% in just a few days in November. For the year ending 2015 it was down 50%. That means you would have lost $15,000 of a $30,000 portfolio!
To get back to $30K it would need to gain 100% in a year. Which - surprisingly, it did! in fact it gained over 130% in 2016.
The V1+ is an option (it kicks you out of all positions when their indicator turns "down") but the V1+ has performed worse than the TSX for the past 3 years!
So its a big gamble. I may or may not have the stomach to stay in but the $30K I have invested is a small part of my portfolio so ... we will see.
Keep us informed of your progress ok? I will do the same. Happy trading!
 

[newinvestor1]

Sure. Will keep you posted. I am also using portion of my portfolio in SSP. Rest of the money, I already kept in mutual funds and ETFs.

[newinvestor1]

Just wanted to keep the forum going on the progress. I started using UPM V3 with $33,000 in Feb 2017. As of today, lost around 15% of the portfolio(i.e., $5,000). From Feb 2017, All the 4 transactions (bought and sold) for S (Sherrit International), TKO (Taseko Mines), NOA (North American Energy Partners), TCW (Trican well) ended up giving between 10 and 13% loss on each stock.  Of course, for TCW, TKO, and S, I bought at current price, but these stock buy signals were given way before I started SSP in Feb. So, I bought these at a different buy price than what is mentioned in UPM V3. 

I am planning to keep doing trades as per UPM V3 and see for few months. If the overall portfolio loss goes over 40%, I am not sure if I will stay, but lets see what future planned for me.

[bryanmcn]

Hi -My portfolio has done about as good as the V1 states (just over 2%) although I tweeked it a bit. I used the weekly as a "heads up" to what stocks may be considered for the V1 and buy in early if it looks like the pick will run. I have also bought later than recommended if it seemed like the pick was burning out on the upside. For instance - I bought SHOP early at $91 and AUP late at $10.88.
I'm in for the long hall so I'm not worried about draw downs. I've noticed, over the years, that the SSP portfolios perform the worst just before they take off.

[newinvestor1]

Thanks Bryan. Appreciate the response.  Looking at weekly portfolio to buy few stocks for V1 either early or late is a good idea.

[garilou]

Hi new investor,
And Hi Bryan,(nice to read you again)

Happy to see some new life on the SSP Forum.
I come somewhat late in the discussion.

New Investor:

I think that following UPMv2 was a good idea.
But 15% loss seems a big loss though: Y to D, this has been the best performer of the 5 Momentum portfolios, with a lean 1.16% gain.
Have you read attentively how to build your portfolio and make the necessary adjustments when new orders come in?
If you have not done it yet, you should really read the "How it works", and take all the time necessary to understand it thoroughly.
Then if you have some minimal spread sheets programing abilities, you will be able to weight each of the stocks properly.

Although I follow strictly ... on "paper" on my spread sheets all 5 Momentum portfolios, I have started to give the stocks good checks before I got in.
The markets have been pretty volatile, but investors too complacent.
Each time a new stock comes in, I do a good fundamental research, then I wait for the right moment to get in, mostly based on the ATR 14.
So no, I do not follow the portfolio rules that I have worked so hard to program.

For some strange reason that SSP could explain, the portfolio UPMv4 that used to be the most profitable (and the most followed) is not as good as previous.
I started to stick more with UPMv2, that seemed to do better, it gives me time to watch the stock while they are in UPMv1), but as I said, I do not follow the rules strictly: I buy when I think it will be good, and get out very fast (Just got out of SHOP with a decent gain, but did not hold long: valuation is very high for a stock that will be great when it starts to make profits...)

But since a few weeks, even year to date, things for the Momentum Portfolios are not going as well as they used to.

The winner is the Earnings Estimate Upgrades Weekly with almost 30% Y to D.

It seems that investors have changed, and are afraid of stocks that have already had a good run.
And that they tend to trust the analysts more then ever.

I will have to adapt and make a new sheet with the same calculations for the Earnings Estimate Upgrades Weekly. It is easy, but I am so lazy and busy since I got my new young dog: she is so full of energy, and brings me so much joy, that I spend less time on investing (and doing pretty good too, especially in my US portfolio: 15% Y to D).

Anyway I hope we will see other discussions on this forum that used to be very active.

And if you read this, a good thank to all the SSPs: hope you are doing good.

Louise