A virtual $20,000 portfolio (UPM v4)

[ruth]

Hi

I have attached my Excel work on this portfolio:
Note:
1. for the most part all commissions($10) are omitted (or I added $10 or $30 to the portfolio value)
2. cash is always 0 because of the fractions of shares used
3. the # of shares in the "actual new portfolio" was found by just dividing the "new amounts" of the "theoretical new portfolio" by the new share price.
4. I listed the TSX (XIC) as reference,
5. I would love to have the MOMv4 as a reference as well
6. I tried to send the whole file (til Aug) but it was too big. Hope you can still figure out the skews.  I can send the rest if you need more.

I used the above rules, hoping to keep the re-balancing as accurate as possible, but i still think i may have missed the mark somehow.

Any feed back is appreciated
Ruth

[Super Stock Picker]

Hello Ruth,

Welcome to this forum!

Congrats for your hard work of simulating the portfolio. That will be very interesting to discuss your findings here.

Could you upload your Excel file on the forum? You could edit your original post or make a new one and attach the file to it.

At first, my guess is that the weighting in your portfolio and the one we use to calculate our performances are not the same.

We see the same mechanism in the $50,000 portfolio. There is a skew introduced in the weighting system when new shares are bought following a sale order. The resulting positions have a cost that is an average between the former buy order and this new rebalancing buy.
Look at TIM as it is currently in the $50,000 portfolio. The TIM position does not show the same performance as what we get in the reference portfolio (but it is quite close in the $20,000 portfolio). This is because of the extra TIM shares we have bought along the way...

In the case of the reference portfolio, the performance are calculated with the weight equal to the performance since the stock was in the portfolio. A real portfolio, rebalanced each week, will show the weight that would take care of the buy price average.

So, these are only guesses but it is likely to introduce a skew in the performance between our reference and your simulation. Try to get your data up here and we will investigate deeper.

And the Price Momentum v4 performances will be uploaded here tomorrow (Daily performance figures). They are currently in xml format and need some work to be converted to an easier to use Excel spreadsheet. Actually, it should be a good idea to find a way to post them on the web site at any time...

[Super Stock Picker]

Here is attached to this post a csv file that gives the daily performance figures of the Ultimate Price Momentum v4 portfolio since its inception.

Do not forget that you need to be logged in the forum to see and download any attachments.

[ruth]

Hi

Sorry I didn't see this first (before my last posting).  I am new to this whole forum thing and didn't know how to find the reply from my last email. (until now!!)

Any way thanks for the numbers.  Much appreciated!!



Thanks again
Ruth

Here is attached to this post a csv file that gives the daily performance figures of the Ultimate Price Momentum v4 portfolio since its inception.

Do not forget that you need to be logged in the forum to see and download any attachments.

[ruth]

Hi

Thanks for the Daily performance of the MOM v.4.  I was able to duplicate your YTD stats exactly on excel.

I'm now working on your Low PEG portfolio and again I'm having difficulty duplicating the 2007 YTD.

Could you please send the Daily performance of the Low PEG?

Much appreciated and thanks for your response
Ruth

[Super Stock Picker]

Hello ruth,

Glad to hear that you have been able to recompute our calculations on your side.

We are sorry, we haven't been able to review your file and give our feedback soon enough. We are pretty busy those days.

Anyway, please find attached the daily performances file for the Low PEG Ratio portfolio.

[ruth]

Hi

Quick question on the YTD and TSX  YTD stats.

The YTD of the Portfolio seems to be from Dec. 29 of 2006 b, but the YTD of the TSX seems to be from Jan 2, 2007 ...

Am I correct or did I miss-calculate?  I've been using the XIC historical prices for the TSX, which are relatively close to yours, but only if I choose a start date of Jan 2

Thanks for your response
I've been having a lot of fun creating various "paper" portfolios and trying to find the best one for me ... I'm getting close!

Ruth