superstockpicker's old picks

[jeff]

keep an eye on superstockpicker's "sold" stocks. Some of them, or even most of them (just my feeling, i don't have the statistics) may keep rising or may rise again after a short break. most recent examples: VRS, i bought it back at $5.85, up 11% now and still looking good; WIN, I bought it back today at $5.42, looks like the correction is over; ML, i did not sell at all.....

Today i followed superstockpicker and bought SW at $25.95 in the morning.

thank you!

jeff

[Super Stock Picker]

Hi jeff,

Thanks for the insight. Indeed, it would be interesting to get more data on that.

But, I also had once the feedback of another user, and he actually told me that after a stock is sold, in the next few weeks the price were almost always down.

His remark had actually given me the idea of testing a short strategy of some sort.

I had no time to run the formal analysis yet, but here are the parameters of his study:
- stocks sold in the Price Momentum portfolios.
- prices higher than 10$.
- performances measured after a few weeks (the exact value he uses was not well defined).

Both approaches make sense as after a sell in our portfolio I would expect a correction to continue (giving the opportunity to short the stocks) but that does not mean that the stocks may not go high again after that.

[DCA]

This sounds like a very risky strategy.  I note that many of the stocks that are sold boomerang back with a buy a short time later.  (FNI, PSE, HF....)  I look for my shorts elsewhere.

There seems to be a large tracking error with SSP also.  I note that in the last few months stocks that were recorded as a loss by SSP where gains for me and some that SSP recorded as a gain where a loss for me.   

D

[Super Stock Picker]

There seems to be a large tracking error with SSP also.  I note that in the last few months stocks that were recorded as a loss by SSP where gains for me and some that SSP recorded as a gain where a loss for me.   

This is strange. We are listing the close price of the session when the trades have happened, so is the offset you see caused by the difference with the intra day price you have in reality? If yes, it should happen for gains or losses that are pretty small.

I would rather expect that your returns are lower then the listed ones as we do not account for the transaction fees...

[DCA]

No, I do not see it as strange.  A lot of SSP stocks will vary by 10% in a day.  With some trades I have been lucky and have made the buy or sell at the low or high for the day.  Others not so lucky....

On the nice clear winners or losers that move in one direction it is easy to corelate with the SSP performance.  It is the stocks that move sideways while bouncing up and down that provide the uncertainty.

Transactions costs are not really an issue.  Mine are below .2%.  My bigger concern is volume.  Some of the stock picks I have had to spread purchases and sales over several days because of low volume.  Some stocks I have filtered out because of volume concerns.

DCA