Virtual $50,000 portfolio

[Super Stock Picker]

Pretty on time, this week!

So, the order for this week was:
Ultimate Price Momentum v2
Action    Ticker     Name
Buy       WPT        Westport Innovations Inc.

As a result of this buy order, we open a new position but also reallocate money among the various positions. The attached Excel document gives the exact calculations to find the figures leading to those sales:
- TIM: 678 shares @ $5.51, value $3,725.83, cost $2,532.11, perf +47.14%
- TCM: 117 shares @ $17.24, value $2,00713, cost $2,153.39, perf -6.79%
- HF: 203 shares @ $11.98, value $2,421.99, cost $2,177.99, perf +11.20%
- PSE: 142 shares @ $14.70, value $2,077.45, cost $2,125.75, perf -2.27%

And then, with the cash now available, we buy the new WPT shares as follows:
- WPT: 3,909 shares @ $2.62, value $10,241.68, cost $10,251.63, perf -0.10%

And we have then $1.37 left in cash.

To summarize, we have now the following 5 open positions in the portfolio:
- TIM: 2,774 shares @ $5.51, value $15,284.74, cost $10,319.28, perf +48.12%
- TCM: 563 shares @ $17.24, value $9,706.12, cost $10,314.16, perf -5.90%
- HF: 959 shares @ $11.98, value $11,488.82, cost $10,242.12, perf +12.17%
- PSE: 692 shares @ $14.70, value $10,172.40, cost $10,310.80, perf -1.34%
- WPT: 3,909 shares @ $2.62, value $10,241.68, cost $10,251.63, perf -0.10%
- Cash: $1.37

Virtual portfolio value is then $56,895.03 from a $50,000 capital. It gives a performance of 13.79% since April 30th, 2007.
Over the same period, the reference portfolio, Ultimate Price Momentum v2, as risen to 634.81 pts from 552.45 pts. Its return is then 14.91%.

PS: The attached Excel document has been used to get to those figures.

[bryanmcn]

This virtual portfolio now trails the reference portfolio by percentage point or two. What is your opinion on the reason for that? Is it the trade commissions, the cash holding or the slightly different stock percentage holdings?

[Super Stock Picker]

In the case of the $50,000 portfolio, the main reason why it looses ground to the reference portfolio is the trade commissions.
The stock's weightings are not exactly the same and may introduce another little skew though. And as far as cash is concerned, this position is almost always null or equal to a few dollars, so it is not a factor at all.

The size of the portfolio is then very important and it is good to see that a portfolio of that size has lost 1 point in almost 2 months. That would keep the difference with the reference portfolio still small at the end of the year.

[Super Stock Picker]

This week, let's go back to Tuesday and use the close prices of this session as Monday was the day off for Canada Day.

The order for this week was:
Ultimate Price Momentum v2
Action    Ticker     Name
Sell        TCM       Thompson Creek Metals Company Inc.

So, first we sell the TCM shares as follows:
TCM: 563 shares @ $17.40, value $9,786.25, cost $10,314.16, perf -5.12%

Now, we need to reallocate the cash coming form this sale between the 4 positions hold in the portfolio. The attached Excel Spread sheet gives the calculations needed to find the following figures. That gives the following 4 new buys:
- TIM: 532 shares @ $5.65, value $3,005.80, cost $3,015.75, perf -0.33%
- HF: 192 shares @ $12.13, value $2,328.96, cost $2,338.91, perf -0.43%
- PSE: 132 shares @ $14.41, value $1,902.12, cost $1,912.07, perf -0.52%
- WPT: 780 shares @ $3.19, value $2,488.20, cost $2,498.15, perf -0.40%

We are now left with $22.74 in cash.

To summarize, we have now the following 4 open positions in the portfolio:
- TIM: 3,306 shares @ $5.65, value $18,698.90, cost $13,335.03, perf +40.07%
- HF: 1,151 shares @ $12.13, value $13,961.63, cost $12,581.03, perf +10.97%
- PSE: 824 shares @ $14.41, value $11,873.84, cost $12,232.82, perf -2.93%
- WPT: 4,689 shares @ $3.19, value $14,957.91, cost $12,749.68, perf +17.32%
- Cash: $22.74

Virtual portfolio value is then $59,495.02 from a $50,000 capital. It gives a performance of 18.99% since April 30th, 2007.
Over the same period, the reference portfolio, Ultimate Price Momentum v2, as risen to 664.16 pts from 552.45 pts. Its return is then 20.22%.

PS: The attached Excel document has been used to get to those figures.

[investolator]

Hello there, excellent site, can't wait to spend more time looking around.  About your portfolio's, many of the buys are odd lots, and sometimes difficult to excecute at a given price.  If we were trading for real, would you actually buy the odd lots or round them up or down.  Thanks and keep up the great work.

[bryanmcn]

I agree with you that trading in odd lots would be difficult. We (ok me) gave the administrators a hard time early this year saying that duplictaing the portfolio's performance would be difficult to do. They have proven us (ok me) wrong by trading in this virtual portfolio and getting close to the same performance. I'm pretty impressed and won't pick at the odd lot issue (but you do have a point).

[Super Stock Picker]

Back to the close of Monday's session to update this thread:

The orders for this week were:
Ultimate Price Momentum v2
Action    Ticker     Name
Sell       HF        Hanfeng Evergreen Inc.
Sell       PSE       Pacific Stratus Energy Ltd.
Sell       WPT       Westport Innovations Inc.
Buy        VRS       Allen-Vanguard Corp.

First, we sell the 3 position as follows:
- HF: 1,151 shares @ $12.89 value $14,826.44, cost $12,581.03, perf +17.85%
- PSE: 824 shares @ $14.95, value $12,308.85, cost $12,232.82, perf +0.62%
- WPT: 4,689 shares @ $3.00, value $14,057.05, cost $12,749.68, perf +10.25%

Then, we proceed to two buy operations, one to open the new VRS position, and the other one to reallocate the dollars in the portfolio following our weighting rule. The attached Excel document shows the calculations done to find those figures:
- TIM: 2,746 shares @ $6.11, value $16,778.06, cost $16,788.01, perf -0.06%
- VRS: 3,051 shares @ $8.00, value $24,408.00, cost $24,417.95, perf -0.04%

And we hold $9.12 in cash.

To summarize, the following 2 positions are now open in the portfolio:
- TIM: 6,052 shares @ $6.11, value $39,977.72, cost $30,123.04, perf +22.76%
- VRS: 3,051 shares @ $8.00, value $24,408.00, cost $24,417.95, perf -0.04%
- Cash: $9.12

Virtual portfolio value is then $61,394.84 from a $50,000 capital. It gives a performance of 22.79% since April 30th, 2007.
Over the same period, the reference portfolio, Ultimate Price Momentum v2, as risen to 686.63 pts from 552.45 pts. Its return is then 24.29%.

PS: The attached Excel document has been used to get to those figures.

[Super Stock Picker]

Even that late, we can go back to Monday and update this thread with the close prices of this session:

The orders for this week were:
Ultimate Price Momentum v2
Action    Ticker     Name
Sell       VRS       Allen-Vanguard Corp.
Buy       CUQ      Churchill Corporation (The)

So, we sell our VRS position as follows:
VRS: 3,051 shares @ $7.69, value $23,452.24, cost $24,417.95, perf -3.95%

Then, we buy the new CUQ position and sell some TIM shares to keep in line with our weighting rule. The attached Excel sheet explains the calculation leading to those numbers:
Sell Tim: 615 shares @ $5.89, value $3,612.40, cost $3,072.65, perf +17.57%
Buy CUQ: 1,879 shares @ $14.40, value $27,057.60, cost $27,067.55, perf -0.04%

Then, the portfolio holds the following two positions:
- TIM: 5,437 shares @ $5.89, value $32,023.93, cost $27,086.21, perf +18.23%
- CUQ: 1,879 shares @ $14.40, value $27,057.60, cost $27,067.55, perf -0.04%
- Cash: $6.21

Virtual portfolio value is then $59,087.74 from a $50,000 capital. It gives a performance of 18.18% since April 30th, 2007.
Over the same period, the reference portfolio, Ultimate Price Momentum v2, as risen to 661.22 pts from 552.45 pts. Its return is then 19.69%.

PS: The attached Excel document has been used to get to those figures.

[Super Stock Picker]

Back to the close of Monday's session to update this thread:

The orders for this week were:
Ultimate Price Momentum v2
Action    Ticker     Name
Buy        SMX       Smtc Corporation

To free cash for this new buy and to comply with our allocation rule, we have to sell part of the two previously open positions. The details of the calculations to find the following figures are given in the attached Excel document. Here are then the 3 trades executed:
Sell TIM: 1,729 shares @ $5.70, value $9,845.35, cost $8,620.37, perf +14.21%
Sell CUQ: 597 shares @ $14.50, value $8,646.55, cost $8,606.75, perf +0.46%
Buy SMX: 2,530 shares @ $7.30, value $18,469.00, cost $18,478.95, perf -0.05%

So, we end up with the following 3 positions open in the portfolio:
- TIM: 3,708 shares @ $5.70, value $21,135.60, cost $18,475.79, perf +14.409%
- CUQ: 1282 shares @ $14.50, value $18,589.00, cost $18,470.75, perf +0.64%
- SMX: 2,530 shares @ $7.30, value $18,469.00, cost $18,478.95, perf -0.05%
- Cash: $19.16

Virtual portfolio value is then $58,212.76 from a $50,000 capital. It gives a performance of 16.43% since April 30th, 2007.
Over the same period, the reference portfolio, Ultimate Price Momentum v2, as risen to 649.50 pts from 552.45 pts. Its return is then 17.57%.

PS: The attached Excel document has been used to get to those figures.

[Super Stock Picker]

Short update this week, as there are no new orders. We'll just update the value of the portfolio:

- TIM: 3,708 shares @ $5.60, value $20,764.80, cost $18,475.79, perf +12.39%
- CUQ: 1282 shares @ $12.00, value $15,384.00, cost $18,470.75, perf -16.71%
- SMX: 2,530 shares @ $5.53, value $13,990.90, cost $18,478.95, perf -24.29%
- Cash: $19.16

Virtual portfolio value is then $50,158.86 from a $50,000 capital. It gives a performance of +0.32% since April 30th, 2007.
Over the same period, the reference portfolio, Ultimate Price Momentum v2, as risen to 570.33 pts from 552.45 pts. Its return is then +3.24%.

PS: The attached Excel document has been used to get to those figures. (You need to be logged in the forum to get access to the attachment)

[Super Stock Picker]

This week's update takes place with the close prices of Tuesday as the TSE was closed on Monday.

The orders were:
Ultimate Price Momentum v2
Action    Ticker     Name
Sell        SMX       Smtc Corporation
Buy        ALS        Altius Minerals Corp
Buy        DRX        Adf Group Inc.

So, we first start by selling the SMX shares as follows:
SMX: 2,530 shares @ $3.94, value $9,958.25, cost $18,478.95, perf -46.11%

Then, we buy the two new stocks to add to the portfolio and we rebalance the two other remaining positions. The attached Excel spreadsheet gives the exact calculations done to find the following figures:
- Sell TIM: 1,278 shares @ $7.04, value $8,987.17, cost $6,374.39, perf +40.99%
- Sell CUQ: 442 shares @ $11.95, value $5,271.95, cost $6,374.75, perf -17.30%
- Buy ALS: 636 shares @ $19.03, value $12,103.08, cost $12,113.03, perf -0.08%
- Buy DRX: 2,684 shares @ $4.51, value $12,104.84, cost $12,114.79, perf -0.08%

So, it gives the following portfolio, with 4 open positions:
- TIM: 2,430 shares @ $7.04, value $17,107.20, cost $12,101.4, perf +41.37%
- CUQ: 840 shares @ $11.95, value $10,038.00, cost $12,096.00, perf -17.01%
- ALS: 636 shares @ $19.03, value $12,103.08, cost $12,113.03, perf -0.08%
- DRX: 2,684 shares @ $4.51, value $12,104.84, cost $12,114.79, perf -0.08%
- Cash: $8.71

Virtual portfolio value is then $51,361.83 from a $50,000 capital. It gives a performance of +2.72% since April 30th, 2007.
Over the same period, the reference portfolio, Ultimate Price Momentum v2, as risen to 604.80 pts from 552.45 pts. Its return is then +9.48%.

PS: The attached Excel document has been used to get to those figures. (You need to be logged in the forum to get access to the attachment)

[Super Stock Picker]

Short update again this week, as there are no new orders. We'll just update the value of the portfolio:

So, the 4 positions open in the portfolio are the following:
- TIM: 2,430 shares @ $7.44, value $18,079.20, cost $12,101.4, perf +49.40%
- CUQ: 840 shares @ $13.85, value $11,634.00, cost $12,096.00, perf -3.82%
- ALS: 636 shares @ $18.24, value $11,600.64, cost $12,113.03, perf -4.23%
- DRX: 2,684 shares @ $4.54, value $12,185.36, cost $12,114.79, perf +0.58%
- Cash: $8.71

Virtual portfolio value is then $53,507.91 from a $50,000 capital. It gives a performance of +7.02% since April 30th, 2007.
Over the same period, the reference portfolio, Ultimate Price Momentum v2, as risen to 631.24 pts from 552.45 pts. Its return is then +14.26%.

PS: The attached Excel document has been used to get to those figures. (You need to be logged in the forum to get access to the attachment)

[Super Stock Picker]

Short (late) update again this week, as there is no new orders this week again. We'll just update the value of the portfolio:

So, the 4 positions open in the portfolio are the following:
- TIM: 2,430 shares @ $5.35, value $13,000.50, cost $12,101.4, perf +7.43%
- CUQ: 840 shares @ $13.28, value $11,155.20, cost $12,096.00, perf -7.78%
- ALS: 636 shares @ $16.62, value $10,570.32, cost $12,113.03, perf -12.74%
- DRX: 2,684 shares @ $4.02, value $10,789.68, cost $12,114.79, perf -10.94%
- Cash: $8.71

Virtual portfolio value is then $45,524.41 from a $50,000 capital. It gives a performance of -8.95% since April 30th, 2007.
Over the same period, the reference portfolio, Ultimate Price Momentum v2, as fallen to 26.38 pts from 552.45 pts. Its return is then -4.72%.

PS: The attached Excel document has been used to get to those figures. (You need to be logged in the forum to get access to the attachment)

[Super Stock Picker]

Hello,

It is time for us to try to catch up with the late updates of the virtual portfolios.

So, let's start where we've left, on August 27, 2007.

On this day, the orders were:
Ultimate Price Momentum v2
Action    Ticker     Name
Buy        VRS         Allen-Vanguard Corp.

So, we buy the new VRS stock and we rebalance also the remaining positions to maintain the proper balancing. The attached Excel spreadsheet gives the exact calculations done to find the following figures:
- Sell TIM: 479 shares @ $6.12, value $2,921.53, cost $2,385.42, perf +22.47%
- Sell CUQ: 166 shares @ $13.60, value $2,247.65, cost $2,390.40, perf -5.97%
- Sell ALS: 126 shares @ $19.15, value $2,402.95, cost $2,397.78, perf +0.22%
- Sell DRX: 532 shares @ $4.07, value $2,155.29, cost $2,399.32, perf -10.17%
- Buy VRS: 1,017 shares @ $9.55, value $9,712.35, cost $9,722.30, perf -0.10%

A a result, we have the following 5 positions open in the portfolio:
- TIM: 1,951 shares @ $6.12, value $11,940.12, cost $9,715.98, perf +22.89%
- CUQ: 674 shares @ $13.60, value $9,166.40, cost $9,705.60, perf -5.56%
- ALS: 510 shares @ $19.15, value $9,766.50, cost $9,715.25, perf +0.53%
- DRX: 2,152 shares @ $4.07, value $8,758.64, cost $9,715.47, perf -9.85%
- VRS: 1,017 shares @ $9.55, value $9,712.35, cost $9,722.30, perf -0.10%
- Cash: $13.83

Virtual portfolio value is then $49,357.84 from a $50,000 capital. It gives a performance of -1.28% since April 30th, 2007.
Over the same period, the reference portfolio, Ultimate Price Momentum v2, as risen to 574.70 pts from 552.45 pts. Its return is then +4.03%.

PS: The attached Excel document has been used to get to those figures. (You need to be logged in the forum to get access to the attachment)

[bryanmcn]

This virtual portfolio is only a few days from being 6 months old. Your calculations say that the return is less than 6% but the reference V2 portfolio on the home page shows a return of 87%. You are over 900 points on the reference, not 583.
Can you explain?
Thanks