MTI use?

[LuckyWon]

I am curious how others are using the market timing.  Up until the last negative (May 3) I wasn't using the MTI.

So on this last MTI negative signal I tightened all my stops rather than selling.  I follow the V4 portfolio so these dates show what happened to me.
- May 3 I didn't purchase FTP as the MTI was close to going negative.
- May 4 The MTI went negative and I tightened my stops
- May 5 was stopped out of TPL (negative spike in the morning)
- May 7 should have been stopped out of VTR (but wasn't due to my own mistake)
- May 12 (today) was stopped out of RVX (negative spike in afternoon)

I am not comfortable with this method. It seems that in all cases I was stopped out by a spike in the market.

I still have VTR only due to my own mistake.  The MTI looks like it might have a chance to go positive today.  My gut says stay out... but we all know what emotion can do to.

So how have some other SSP followers dealt with the MTI?

[markcle]

I think the problem with tight stops for SSp is that these are very volitile stocks (as u experienced!),tight stops only work well for big slow elephants like TRP.TO for example- if trp drops ,say 5% in one day- u know somethings VERY wrong! Peter Grandich has an amazing track record for calling the market and he is sticking to his June/July prediction as the top (granich.com) and I beleive he'll be right again! He loves gold and calls for $1300-1500 this year- I hope hes right here too cause I'm loadin' up!

[bryanmcn]

I set stops according to previous tecnical support areas or by considering how much risk I want to take. Then I'll raise them over time. I noticed that this time I was almost completey stopped out of all my positions by the time the MTI indicator went down.

Here's what I do using VTR as an example;
If I entered now at $1.65 the initial stop would be around $1.40 so the risk is $.25
If my total portfolio size is say $100,000, I would not want to risk more than 1% or $1000. So $1000 / $.25 = 4000 shares. (My position size).

When the MTI turns down it seems to be a good time to look for buying ops. I made some decent money playing HXU, JIN and FFH when they reversed.

Lots of good deals out there still.
Bryan   

[markcle]

Bryan,

          Nice to here from an optomist for a change (re:Lots of good deals out there still). Every blog,article,video,etc, that I come across says "Look out below!!" I've read your stuff on here before-please share your thoughts on the good deals you are seeing . Only gold seems to be on the buy list of the people I follow and that is because everything else stinks:paper money,stocks,real estate,bonds!!??Where else to hide but gold (and ammo & beef jerky of course  )

[LuckyWon]

Hi Bryan,

Thanks for your post.  I am curious as to what you do with the stocks/stops once the MTI turns negative.  Do you just leave the stops in, tighten them up, or simply sell all the portfolio stocks on the day the MTI turns negative?

I have been following SSPv4 without the MTI, but feel that we are due for a pull back.  So recently decided to try and use the MTI.  This was my first experience using it.  I know that SSP just sells all portfolio+ stocks on the day the MTI goes negative.  I just feel that if the stock is still listed as a buy/hold in the non+ portfolios it might still increase in value, so rather than sell it, I tightened up my stops.  But I guess due to the volatility of them I was stopped out.  And now the MTI has turned back positive, for now... might be negative by the end of today.

I think that I am going to stay out for awhile and see what this MTI does.  I still hold VTR with my original stop in effect.  What's that expression for this time of year "sell in may and stay away" at least until the fall.

Cheers

[bryanmcn]

Hi Markcl
I think the best SSP weekly stock picks are;
TGL
BTO
ICI
FTP
and VTR
I would avoid;
WTN
and RVX
I'm neutral on COM

In my opinion it seems that oil has been pounded down too low. I would look for it (and oil stocks) to bounce from here. I may play HOU on Monday if it starts to reverse.
Bryan

[bryanmcn]

Luckywon
I watch the MTI too but I find it can be too slow in volitile markets like we're in now. It works well when a long downtrend starts or in catastrophic downturns but not in short market corrections like this one.
Generally I set my initial stops with plenty of room and gradually tighten them up as the stock gains but...
In these volitile markets I am more carefull. The past week I have been day and swing trading so if the stock moves against me I may just get out, admit I was wrong and take my losses.

As you guessed, the MTI turned down on Friday but I think we'll see volitility drop and the markets will stablize at higher levels this coming week.
Bryan