My Oil and Gold investments need help on timing

[guydumont]

SO Im in these two mutual funds long term.

Energy fund:
Top Holdings
Petrominerales Ltd.
Petrobank Energy & Resources Ltd.
Petro Rubiales Energy Corp.
Niko Resources Ltd.
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd.
Suncor Energy Inc.
Cash & Cash Equivalents
Talisman Energy Inc.
Celtic Exploration Ltd.
Oil Service HOLDRs Trust

Precious Metals fund:

Top Holdings
Randgold Resource Ltd.
Silver Wheaton Corp.
IAMGOLD Corp.
Compañía de Minas Buenaventura SA, ADR
Goldcorp Inc.
Cash & Cash Equivalents
Osisko Mining Corp.
San Gold Corp.
Kinross Gold Corp.
Semafo Inc.

Question 1:  When will oil run out?  When should I exit this mutual fund?  Peak oil real?

Question 2:  If gold will hit 2500/ounce in the next 5 years when would you exit?  What price? 

Im planning on investing in each every week for the next 7 years unless water ends up in our gas tanks and the US gets rid of it's 15 trillion dolar deficit.lol  This will never happen in my opinion. Comments and opinions are welcome. 

[bryanmcn]

Hi Guydumont

In my humble opinion;
1) Before oil ever runs out, the price of it will rise so high that nobody will want it and we'll start using substitutes instead. So we'll never really "run out". But to answer your question; exit when the trend is over. Watch the trend of oil prices and oil companies and when you see the charts start hitting lower lows and lower highs, cash in! When the cover of Newsweek says "When will Oil Stop rising?" its usually a good sign that its topped.
2) If everyone agrees that gold will get to $2500 then sell now because the price is already build into your holdings. So you want to hope, (and this is closer to reality) that not everyone believes this because when the price continues to rise, they'll be suprised and start buying - driving up the price!

Gold seems to be rising because the US dollar is week against other currencies because they dumped a trillion stimulus dollars into their economy and because the expectation is that interest rates will rise. (Gold is a hedge against inflation). Exit when the same indicators as mentioned in 1) show up.

Canada is a good place to invest right now.

eh? 

[guydumont]

I apreciate the advice.  Thanks bryan.   Do you think oil companies would ever become solar or other type of energy giants?  I just can't seem to see billion dollar companies packing up and taking off when other forms of energy take over..  2025-2045???

Oil companies are too greedy and I believe they will buy any other form out and release for themselves.  Just my opinion.  I could be wrong on this one. 

And if the USA keeps on printing.  Health Care and stupid decisions and more perpetual war.  Wouldnt gold companies keep on going up?  It costs them an AVG of 500 per ounce to mine gold.  If the price is at 1000 long term, wouldn't these companies still make huge profits as long as gold stays over the 1000 mark?   

I trully dont fully understand how these companies are valuated so any help here is apreciated.