help me to decide

[akis]

please guys help me should i buy the above stock or i missed the boat?

[bryanmcn]

Akis
The stock is in an uptrend so I would not short. If you buy, your stop should be set at just under $37 so your risking almost $5 or $20,000 if you buy 2000 shares. If $20,000 represents less than 2% of your portflio ($1,000,000) then this is a reasonable risk. Otherwise, reduce your position size.
Bryan

[garilou]

Akis,
I am a little late to jump in.
But even when you made up your poll, I think that you forgot to enter an option, like "Wait and see".
Have you" missed the boat"? You sure missed a great up stride since March, but who has not missed some of those?

Bryan was certain right to say that TCK.B was in an up trend, but it was somewhat overbought!
And now it is showing many signs of trend reversal.
Had you bought 20,000 shares at 42.00, you would already have lost pretty much, unless your are a millionaire like Bryan said, this would be significant (at least it would for me!), and with a stop at 35$, this is still a bigger risk.
We come back in the problem of deciding where to put the stop. I do not quite agree with a $35.00 stop.
There are at least 3 supports between the price now and $35.00, the lowest and strongest around 37.90.
I entered a reply to your post as a short,  just because I love shorting, I would not have... then. I would have waited.

Now as of Jan. 15, it could well be a short term short sale:
1. The stock goes down before the results of Feb 8 come out
2. Since August, there have been only insiders sales,
3. The volumes are decreasing steadily.
4. Since this post was started, a strong resistance has developed close to 41.80
5. It has been pretty heavily shorted since mid December, and 50% of the shorts have been covered between then and December 31, this covering might be a part of the last ups from January. The new short numbers should come out Monday, and my guess is that they will be up again.
6. Although I don't like to short stocks that are heavily held by funds, the funds are not buying much since last Sept. and Oct.
7. Most of all, I do not see Gold as a bullish commodity before a while.

I would not be surprised to see the stock go down close to 36$ in the short term.
IMHO, it is not a good idea to buy 20,000 shares of that stock, not now!
If ever you bought them, I would NOT wait till it reaches 35$ to sell.
But it all depends whether you are a short term trader or a "BUY and HOLD" investor.
And if you ARE a millionaire - in which case I wonder why you'd be on this forum  - why don't you go for a short:
Watch it for a few hours Monday, if it's not too late, try to sell as high as you can, and set a (mental) stop a 42.60.
The market is good for shorts sellers those days...
But if you are new to the forum, maybe you do not know us very well: I call Bryan "BullBryan", and my-self "BearLou"... He is the optimistic, and I am the pessimistic.

Louise

PS Bryan, I have been short again for 2 days on SXC... Was a little late, and I might cover on Monday. Thursday was my nicest gain.

[akis]

i would to thank you for your reply. can you please tell me how you find the information on how many short sells their are? as you can tell i am new to this. ty again

[garilou]

Hi akis,
I find the shorts on www.stockwatch.com.
There is lots of free information on that site, but if you want to know the shorts, you must pay a subscription, but the minimum subscription is really not expensive: a little more then $5.00/month.
I think this was the first site where I paid for registration, (I still have very few), but this one I have had for over 15 years at least, and the price has not changed once.
For sure they also have much more expensive subscriptions.
Unfortunately you don't find readily what percentage of the float is shorted.
For US stocks, there is a good site, where you learn not only the number of shorted shares, but also the percentage of the float and an evaluation of how many days it would take to cover them all [which often forces the price to go up, that is why I wrote that the covering of the shorts on TCK.B between Dec. 15 and Dec. 31 could account for part of the up move of the price.  But I always am surprised to see how long some shorters can hold, because this is expensive: when you short, if you win, the money comes right in every day, but if you loose the money goes out every day too, it's not "paper gain" or "paper loss".]

Anyway, back to Stockwatch, you can find more then the shorts: Block trades are also interesting. For example, I can tell you that on Jan 15, for TCK.B, there were 2 block trades of minimum 10,000 shares made very late (16:10:00 : 51,300 shares,  and 16:21:31: 76,100 shares ) at 40.80$ (-0.72).
In both case Buyer and Seller are RBC. Since those trades happened so late in the day, there could be many possibilities: inside RBC trades, or RBC had orders from clients for Monday, and managed to buy them cheaper after the session closed to resell them Monday morning with some profit. We know very little of what happens in the night...

A long time ago, when I was still with a traditional broker, I had in a margin account shares that were worth about 35$, and I wanted to swap then to my RRSP account, but there was not enough cash for my RRSP to "buy" my shares. I don't know how she did, but she managed that during the night the shares were shortly valued only 25$, so my RRSP could buy them, and the next day I had in my RRSP a 10$ per share gain (not taxable), and in my margin account a loss of 10$ per share (deductible!).
I doubt that something like that would be possible today, certainly not even with the best discount broker, but I would not be surprised that all sorts of things happen during the time the markets are closed.

But still it is interesting some times to know who bought and who sold, because this gives you hints about for example if a Fund bought or sold intensively. I guess this is good, because if a Fund suddenly bought or sold huge blocks, this could distort the intraday course of trading.

Like for SXC, on which I am short but will probably cover today (Monday), knowing who bought blocks of minimum 500 shares at which moment of the day and at what price brings helpful information.
I can also find out that no one bought blocks of 1000 shares or more, when SXC is normally heavily traded.

Hope this helps.

But you did not tell us what your decision was at the end!
Did you or did you not buy those shares?

Louise

PS: Because you say that you are so new to it, I'd like to stress how important it is, when you consider a stock linked to commodities, to check that or those commodities with at least as much attention as the stock it-self. As for me, the best one is  http://futures.tradingcharts.com, because they do not only give you charts and prices but for each contract, the give you an extensive technical analysis according to many different TA analysis tools. Have a look! Some stock overreact to any change of the underlying commodity, others follow pretty well , others "under" react, or react late.
Too bad that I do not buy gold stocks anymore, (but I do short them when possible), the gold mines are too polluting, and I try as much as I can to invest "environmental friendly". Hard to find in the TSX!
But I do own stocks from a company that repairs the damages from gold mines! And it has been doing pretty well! And is still very cheap.

[akis]

garilou
I would like to thank you for your reply No I did not buy Tck.b because you have to understand I already lost $200,0000.00 in trading TD Bank Stock on margin so I lost my self confidence if you know what I mean.
I chose to trade banks because according to the pass data it was very solid stock, I did make my home work on these 3banks RY, TD and BNS trading and that’s how I got into trading, yes I did make some nice profit some days I was making $1,500.00 per day but I was not smart enough to keep it I spend it all.
I know you might think I am stupid to loss this amount but I am not; I just had very bad luck.
Back to our Tck.b you see I never did trade any other stock in my entire trading period, to me it does not make any sense that this stock jumped so high so I was worried to lose more money and as we say no pain no gain.
Yes I would like to learn how to pick stock with high returns I hope I will learn soon. Again I would like to thank you
 

[garilou]

Ikis,
Please see my reply that I posted in the forum "Beginner's Guide", where I guess it should be, because we are not talking about a specific stock anymore.
http://www.superstockpicker.com/forum/index.php?topic=1716

Louise

[akis]

sorry its a typo i lost $200,000.00 that is the right amount on TD Bank yes its lots of money i do have all the documents if you would like to see. i am not joking if you only knew the pain that i have. my last trade it was Dec. 2 2008, since that day i did not make any money from the stock market i am paying  the interest on my credit of line every month  and on top of this the interest are not tax dedactable if you know what i mean. Pleas note that i was trading from the year 2005 to Dec. 2,2008 5 days a week from 9:30 to 4:10 every day, i was trading only 3 Banks RY, TD and BNS these was solid stock until the market took a dive i did not buy junk stock so i can understand if i lost. i am writing this so to save some one from doing the same miss take like i did.

[toprngr]

Losing money is one of the unavoidable in the history of investment, even the ones good at it are suffering from misjudged investments. In fact, what you should do here is to take it as an advice and learn from it. Gaining experience is much more important than scared to step foot again. In fact, I feel that the pricing is a bit at its peak now. Wait for a few periods and see whether will it reach 3x+. And if it does, that will be the time.