I have been an active trader for the last 2 years and been following this board for a little while. I learned a lot from the experts here. But could someone tell me how risky is sports betting relative to risky stocks.
I placed few bets couple of weeks ago when I was in Vegas and now I am seriously considering signing up with an offshore sportsbook and allocate a small bankroll. I did some research and found a sports betting system (progressive system) that uses underdog bets to make profit. The system is explained in detail in
mrmartingale.com/system.html I will copy and paste it below. Could someone tell me how risky this could get if I use their picks with this system? Below is copY paste:
This system is highly profitable and suitable for bettors with small bankroll who are looking to build their bankroll rapidly. This system requires a 77.06 unit bankroll and brings in a profit of about 20 units each week per series with my picks (that is £200 each week if you are betting £10 per unit and £2000 each week if you are betting £100 per unit). You can expect to double your bankroll every month.
I will avoid all mathematical explanation using sequence, series and functions etc in order to make it understandable to everyone--instead I will use simple words and numbers to tell you what exactly to do. In this modified version we will use 2.1 factor after each loss instead of 2 (doubling up) and set the boundary to 6 instead of infinity (don't think this is just a double of system, read the rules of the system below to find out why this will defy odds and help you win for ever.) Lets say the starting bet amount = 1 Unit = U. Then using 2.1 factor after each loss we get the following sequence of bet amounts:
Bet 1 = U
Bet 2 = U(2.1) = 2.1U
Bet 3 = U(2.1)2 = 4.41U
Bet 4 = U(2.1)3 = 9.26U
Bet 5 = U(2.1)4 = 19.45U
Bet 6 = U(2.1)5 = 40.84U
Total (Bankroll) = U + U(2.1) + U(2.1)2 + U(2.1)3 + U(2.1)4 + U(2.1)5 = 77.06U. Therefore, this system requires a 77.06 Units of bankroll if you are to do 1 unit bets.
A failed session (6 bet losing streak) would cost us 77.06 units. Therefore, a successful session is when we gain 77.06 units without losing 6 in a row.
Rules of the system:
- Bet only on events with 1.91 (-110) or better odds. Do not randomly pick games with 1.91 (-110) or better odds. Always handicap the game and find the edge--play the side that has a win estimation of 50% or better. Best way to maximize profit is to bet on good underdog odds with a win estimation of 50% or better. My picks for this system have average odds of about 2.40 (+140) and because of this the system is highly successful.
- All bet amounts are for "risk", i.e. use the unit amount given in the bet table (bet1=1unit, bet 2=2.1units, bet3=4.41units, bet4=9.26units, bet5=19.45units, bet6=40.84units) regardless of the odd.
-Bet on the next game only after you are sure about the result of the previous bet. Whenever a bet wins, the next bet amount is bet 1 (1 unit). Whenever a bet is cancelled or voided, repeat the same bet amount on the next bet. Whenever a bet loses, use the progression until you win.
-If you ever encounter a six game losing streak, start over with a new bankroll. DO NOT CONTINUE THE PROGRESSION TO 7TH BET.
- Do not change your unit amount until you have completed a successful session. For example, if you start at 1 unit = £10 with a bankroll of £770.60, you should remain at 1 unit = £10 until your bankroll is doubled (1 successful session). Now that you have double the capital, you may increase your unit size to £20 or you may withdraw half your earnings and increase your unit size to £15. Once you start with the increased unit size and bankroll, you should wait until you complete a successful session with the new unit size and bankroll before increasing it again. It is recommended that you select a desired unit amount and stick to it forever instead of increasing it after each successful session--increasing strategy is for those who don't have big bankroll to start right away at big unit size. It is highly recommended that you go no more than 1 unit = £100.
- Play only at safe and reliable sportsbooks.
- Never randomly pick a game. Always cap your games and play only valuable bets with good odds. It is highly recommended that you use my picks to minimize risk and to maximize profit because I have been doing this since 2006 without failing.
Beauty of the System
Recently I have been getting many confused emails from non clients. It is very simple. You can apply this system everyday to couple of picks and continue it throughout your life. When I do the picks I will have 1 to 2 games during weekdays and 2 to 4 games during weekends. I make all the selections in a way so that they start at different times and don't overlap. For example Take a look at the recent picks from Thu, Jan 15, 2009 to Sat, Jan 17 2009:
Jan 15: NHL: Tampa - Philly
Pick: With OT: Tampa to win Odd: +125
Risked 1 unit. Won +1.35 units
Jan 15: NHL: Los Angeles - Detroit
Pick: With OT: Lost Angeles to win Odd: +165
Risked 1 unit. Lost -1 unit
Jan 16: NBA: Toronto - Indiana
Pick: Toronto to win Odd: +141
Risked 2.1 units. Lost -2.1 units
Jan 16: NBA: Sacramento - Milwaukee
Pick: Sacremento to win Odd: +100
Risked 4.42 units. Lost -4.41 units
Jan 17: NCAAB: Northeastern - Hofstra
Pick: Hofstra to win Odd: +149
Risked 9.26 units. Won +13.79 units
Jan 17: NCAAB: Creighton - Wichita St
Pick: Wichita St to win Odd: +155
Risked 1 unit. Won +1.55 units
Jan 17: NHL: Carolina - Buffalo
Pick: With OT: Carolina to win Odd: +135
Risked 1 unit. Lost -1 unit
Jan 17: NHL: Calgary - Phoenix
Pick: With OT: Phienix to win Odd: +185
Risked 2.1 units. Won +3.89
As you can see there are multiple games in one day but none of the games overlaps-- I select the game in a time schedule so that each game will start after the completion of the previous game. You just make the bets based on the previous results. During those 3 days, the picks went 4 wins, 4 losses for a profit of +12.08 units using the system. If we had bet these games simply as flat bets, the profit would have been nothing more than few units. If we had lost that Hofstra/Northeastern game, we would have went 3-5 and the profit would have been even higher than 12.08 units--because of the underdog odds, the return on the 3rd, 4th and 5th are very high. This is just a 3 day sample with 8 picks. Overall we have gone over 500 bets without losing 6 games in a row and that streak is enough to multiply the bankroll by many times (that means when a six game loss comes, it is just a temporary blip in the bankroll). When you start with using this system for your picks, the most important period is the first month. As long as you go without losing 6 games in a row during this period, your bankroll should be fine. I highly recommend using my picks with this system to maximize profit and to avoid losing your bankroll.
