Market Movements

[bryanmcn]

Sept 23, 2009

We've seen a great run in the past few months but I think we'll soon see an end. There may still be some momentum left but this bull run must stop and take a breath soon or we risk seeing a harder correction. I am still long on a few postions but my finger is on the trigger. Lets hope for a pull back (and perhaps a buying op) soon.
Bryan

[garilou]

I couldn't agree more.
The MTI is still up for tomorrow (Friday 25th), but for how long still?
I just noticed a funny coincidence: The difference between the close of the TSX today and the MTI for tomorrow is exactly the amount of points that the TSX lost today: 231.78 points!
(No SSP, this is not part of my search for the secret recipe!)

A few more days like that and we'll be DOWN.
Today's loss in Canada is more analyzed the result of the fall of Oil,  because the TSX is so full of resources stocks, but in the US, the quarterly results of Research in Motion have been a terrible commotion, and everyone waits for a huge fall of NASDAQ tomorrow,(well... today) and probably the others too. Everyone braces for a deep red day! Imagine: the no 1 on the Fortune growth list!

But RIM was such a bubble! I shorted it too early unfortunately, but it has lost more the 3% during the trading hours and 11.27% after hours, as the report came out.
Had I not been stopped out, I'd have a comfortable gain this morning. I was so sure this report and the prospect of the 3rd quarter was not going to look like what the analysts predicted, it was all b.. s...! 
The funniest in such presentations is when they start by saying how satisfied they are!
And next quarter should be better, because the Holidays are coming! Do CEOs needs Xmas to get their Blackberrys ? Will children write a Blackberrys on their wish list for Santa?
LOL!


 

[bryanmcn]

Sept 26, 2009
Support on the TSX is around 11,000. If it starts to rebound there it could make new highs. Sept and Oct are usually down months so its hard to bet on a the continued Bull ralley but the charts are more right than wrong. The present pull back could be a buying op.
Presently I am out everything except;

CAS
WPK
HNU

Bryan

[worldraft]

Well I presently have some RIM but I'm contemplating buying more now that it plummeted or Waite a while to see if it will go down more. But I don't know what to do so today being Sunday I will take a bit of time to think about it and in the mean time if you guys have any suggestion please go for it.

Jean

[bryanmcn]

Here's what I would do. Look at the stock as if you don't own it. Would you buy? Gaps have a tendancy to fill so my guess is the it will rebound a bit. I'd you can't watch it carefully on Monday the place a stop just below the low of Fridays trade.

[worldraft]

Tanks for your advice, Ill be sitting in front of my of my computer Monday and will see what happens.
Jean

[bryanmcn]

Jean
I assume you sold?
Bryan

[worldraft]

Actually Bryan I bought a bit and I'll see what tomorrow will bring to see what my next move will be. After reading a bit and listening to CNBC as well as BNN I think that is very close to there bottom and it will start to climb again but how much & what time frame ??

[garilou]

worldraft,
You had said that you would do what Brian had recommended: "Look at the stock as if you don't own it. Would you buy?" (and you seemed to find that a good advice, as I do also think was the best advice you could get).
Apart from listening to "CNBC as well as BNN", what else positive made you choose specifically this stock (remember... that you do not own it), among all the others? Because it had become "cheap?"
You said you read a little bit: analysts who had goofed so much, and still say "We remain positive on RIM, Xmas is coming?"

This confirms my long time say, that the only advices that we really listen to are those that we give to others...

As for the market movements, I really do not know where we are heading.

Although the predictions for a new crash have not quite happened yet, I still think it has to happen, there have been too many bubbles in the past months. Where ever you turn, you can see green or red, you look at the indexes on a 3 months charts, and your think: "Wow, strong resistances for the DOW, the S&P, and the S&P TSX". Then look at a 6 months chart, and you think: "Oh just a small correction", then look at a 1 year chart, and you think: "not that bad"... and look at a 10 years chart... we are still so low, but the markets have jumped so much more than the economic outlook... We'll take years to come out of that mess. How could say... we, and the US still more, have created so much depths just trying to bring back a system that could not work anymore.

I am almost totally at cash, except for AW.UN that goes sideways since months, but brings a good dividend, and some fixed income that bring almost nothing, and 3 US stocks that I shall probably liquidate in the 2 or 3 next days.
I'm out out out! too much time consuming: I do so much research, technical and fundamental, and I see contradictions everywhere.
Then at last I find one or two good prospects, they do well  for a few days, and all of a sudden... I'm getting scared and tired.
I just bite my fingers when I took what I thought was a good profit, that could have doubled had I waited 2 months more, (both on my longs and my shorts, although shorts are a different story, because they are settled every night).
I have become too impatient, simply because I don't feel it anymore.
And I think that no one does!
I would hate to be the one who earns his life by having to give every night his/her opinion and explanation of what happened during the day. Those who do that need a lot of creativity 

But every night the MTI stays UP... and SSP's portfolio keep doing pretty well...


Louise

[bryanmcn]

Hi Louise
There is much truth in what you say;
 - The markets have risen significantly without much of a breather.
 - Sept and Oct are traditionally down months (Sept was up so maybe Oct will be even worse)
 - The sentiment in the market is still cautiously good (VIX is still at the high end of its normal range) indicating that a contrarian position would be prudent.
 - We are seeing signs of frothing and topping on the charts.
 
But with all of that there is still one truth that indicates we should all be 100% long invested right now.

Its a BULL market!

If your 100% long when it turns, you can get out with a little pain, but if your 100% out you will miss a big move up and the big money.

I won't try to time a top.

Its a BULL market. 

I'll get out when it turns bearish.
Bryan

[worldraft]

I listen to all of you and I think your all right. This said one must after looking at most of everything And the fact that Sept & Oct are USUALLY bad months and that Christmas is in the next corner & that very good , so here 's what I think. Rim's share just had a bad quarter after being in a rescission, witch I think it's normal and that Apple has just come out with an inspiring product 2 months before Christmas???
The question at this time is:
1.Will apple come out with another nice product.
2.Is RIM going to bring out there new glamor for Christmas.

The prices just went down but what's going to happen...Well I bought some so We'll see.

Jean

[garilou]

Hi worldraft,

First I would really not count onXMas in the case of RIM.
Second, one might have a largerview.
I just found this interesting article about RIM:
Be Careful With Dangerous RIMM
http://www.thestreet.com/story/10605277/1/be-careful-with-dangerous-rimm.html
Really worth reading. Tell me what you think
Remember though that all prices are quoted in USD.

And Bryan, my wish to be at cash is not only motivated by the question if  we are in a BEAR or a BULL market. There are other considerations too, more personal.

Louise

[garilou]

He Brian,
Are you sure still we are in a BULL market?
Well let me know when you think it's a bear market, because my losses are becoming unbearable.
You know I will never hold someone else responsible for my decisions, ( but after all, we all interact), but I must admit that I was influenced by your post and postponed my decision to go all at cash, the day did not seem quite the best for that...
Are you still long on HNU?
I hate to put stops... almost each time I regret it. But in some cases it has saved me from bigger losses.
Only 1 of my US stocks did better then -1.2%!!!

So tomorrow is the big money, since it seems that today's down was due to the fear of tomorrow.
Oh no! It was October 1st! maybe this was the reason for the big crash from today.
In that case... were heading for a hard month.
But others say that September is the worst month in the Year...

worldraft , you must LOLing, you had one of the very few good cards in your hands today 



 

[worldraft]

Admittedly I was a little happy with rim today, but It's not to say I'm not very cautious cause I know that the market is very very skittish and a nothing can spook it, so for now I'll site here and eat my finger nails and watch the market.

[bryanmcn]

Louise
Yes the Market trend is still up. The small correction we experienced this week is, in my opinion a buying op. (Although I must admit I find it hard to find individual stocks with decent charts).
I stopped out of HNU and yes, it was frustrating to see it bounce. HNU is VERY volitile so when I buy I limit my exposure (# of shares) accordingly.
My portfolio is changing daily and what I buy today I could sell tomorrow. The markets have had a long run and its October so I keep my finger on the trigger. They say the markets "climb a wall of worry" and I hear a lot of "analysts" are worried so I will take a contrarion view for now and stay long ... with tight stops.
Bryan