sxc

[bryanmcn]

SXC has been a SSP pick in the past. I kept it on my radar and with its good looking chart added it to my portfolio recently. Up over 25% today on good news.

"Driven by new contract wins, strong client retention, cross-sell selling success and operational synergies, we generated record sales and profitability in the second quarter," said Mark Thierer, President and CEO of SXC. "As the Technology-Enabled PBM, we continue to benefit from our flexible and diversified business model which enables us to service a broad number of market verticals and a wide range of customers within each segment. This diversification has helped us to grow our business and expand our sales pipeline during difficult economics times. As a result of our strong financial and operational performance in the first half of the year and our positive outlook for the second half, we are once again raising our fiscal 2009 financial targets."

[Super Stock Picker]

Hello Bryan,

SXC is still one of our current picks in the Earnings Estimate Upgrades Monthly portfolio (http://www.superstockpicker.com/portfolio_Earnings_Estimate_Upgrades_Monthly+.html)

[garilou]

Hi SSP, (and Bryan)
The last orders, received for the Earnings Estimate Upgrades Weekly portfolio sent a SELL order for SXC.
Their next reporting is on Nov 5th I think, and my feeling is that the stock is short term somewhat overbought.
In the past year, there were only insider sells.
For the first time since July the shorts have increased on Sept. 30th.
More and more Funds managers let you know that the stock has still a lot a momentum, and that it is "never too late to buy a stock with momentum": for me those statements always trigger red alarm bells  .
So I'd start to be prudent with this one, it has had a nice ride though.

But my question is:
I just received (October 19th, 9:00PM), alerts for SXC with earning estimates upgrades for this fiscal quarter and year, and for next year.
On October 16th I received an alert for a next quarterly estimate downgrade!
But I receive those automatically, without knowing the source.
Is your recommendation really based on Earning estimates?
How many sources do you use?
The last Financial Post report shows a consensus recommendation of 7 analysts as a "hold" (a polite way to say "sell"), especially when one see the Consensus price target of $40.40 US (the stock closed at 51.82US  today)

Is the recommendation so that we expect that those estimate upgrades  are already priced in, and that the reports can only bring disappointment. Like the Momentum portfolios, this one is probably also automated.
I would like to know:
Are buy /sell recommendations for this portfolio based on upgrades (buy), and downgrades (sell)... or the reverse?
Am I asking something that is part of a secret recipe?

I know that you once said that this portfolio was somewhat obsolete, but since you still keep it.

Bryan, are you still long on SXC?

Louise

[bryanmcn]

Hi Louise
I sold SXC. Took my money and ran.
Bryan

[garilou]

Good move again Bryan!
I think it was way overbought!

And ... where did you run to?

SSP, no reply?

Louise

[bryanmcn]

Louise
I bought SXC on July 17th at $31.60 and sold it on Sept 1 at $43.94 when it hit a trailing stop. Since then I've made over 100 trades. Lately I have gone long on a large percentage of my portfolio. The largest percent, in fact, that I have had for many years.
Right now I am long on;
IMN
QUA
ERF.UN
AW.UN
TH
LIF.UN
GCE
RMX
HXU
SPB
JAZ.UN
SGF
CR
TCK.B
QMI
DWI 

What are you holding?
Bryan

[Super Stock Picker]

Hi Louise,

Yes, the Earnings Estimate Upgrades portfolios are also automatized like everything else on this website.

The database we use is the one from Zacks. We have also used GlobeInvestor in the past but the Zacks one is more complete (at least for stocks that are listed in the US).

So, the criteria we use to select the stocks in these portfolio are the earnings estimate revisions. Basically, the stocks that get the best recent revisions will be selected. When, they are not in this select list anymore, they are sold.

[garilou]

Hi SSP, thanks for the reply.
I think that my upgrades-downgrade come from Globe Investor. (They come from TD Waterhouse now, but they look exactly like the ones I used to receive from Globe Investor, and I think they are pretty close to each other).
 
When you system issued the sell recommendation, I also, as mentioned in my post, had received a downgrade (Oct. 16), then after your recommendation, I received those 2 upgrade recommendations.

Assuming that those 2 upgrades would have come just before you issued (thanks God) a sell recommendation, those upgrades being more recent might not have triggered a sell, or they might have triggered a buy!
I can understand why you once said that those upgrade portfolios were pretty obsolete!
I guess for your automated system, the name of the analyst wouldn't make a difference, but I think all analysis (what is the plural for analysis in English?)  should be signed.
I was once able to retrace the analyst (this was a long time ago), who had produced so good buy recommendations.
Later, after taking a big loss, I became part of a collective suit against the company, and just last week, I received a noticed that "we" had won, and that I was entitled to receive a compensation for my loss: I started to search in my archives to find when and at what prices I had bought them, then I calculated quickly that I could receive a huge 17$... not worth the trouble.
So I guess the analyst was him-self cheated by the company.

But as I said, too many upgrades tend to trigger a sell ring in my head. I do not buy only on momentum, I also do some "fundamental research", but in both direction, the momentum seems to win... except when artificially driven up by analysts.

So  last night, YEP!!! I shorted SXC, the perfect timing.
You order just confirmed what I was preparing to do.
But it is incredible what an analyst can have for an influence!
This banking analyst Dick Bove who downgraded Wells Fargo Wednesday afternoon is supposedly the one who provoked that sudden huge drop in the markets at the end of the trading session.
At least we know his name 
But the markets were ready for a correction anyway.

Well, I write too long again. but thank you!

Louise

[garilou]

Hi Bryan,

I could never manage so many as you do!
Even now, I feel I am in too many!
You may have read in my post to SSP that I am now "happily shorted" with SXC.
My "love-hate affair" with SXC started somewhat earlier then yours. (I am joking, because I never love my stocks, I just love or hate my-self... not even: a good win is rewarding, but I won't hate my-self for a loss)

I bought  it one June 11, at 29.18, and bought more on June 12, at 29.24.
On June 22... I was stopped out, with a small loss.
I got back in on Aug, 10. (I had missed the big jump from Aug 6th, at 41, and got out on Sept 23 at 51.00), and YEP! at 3:00 Wednesday during the night (you can notice that I am a night bird), I placed my short order on it, at $53.10.
I was afraid - like it happened to me sometimes- that I put my  price to high, (but you can't put a price lower then the closing price), and I got it!!!
Had I missed it, I could have changed my price this morning, but I did not want to miss the first part like I missed RIM.

So my holdings?
US:
Got rid of 2 recently: SNM first, (I had to make room for my RIM short) than TIE, (the same, I had to make room for my coming SXC short),  both with small profits,  (annualized % not too bad)  but pretty happy, because both started to drop the day after I sold.
Wednesday morning, I still had one (ISH) that did so great, so this time, because I had to leave the house, and at 11:30, it had gone up another 1.50 or so, I did put a stop ( I hait stops)!
The stop triggered, and I got out higher then the close.
One of the few times I am rewarded but a stop. (An annualized gain of 107 %)
But I'll get back in soon, because if it was hit by the general down break at 3:00 PM, it never went lower as the open, and managed to recuperate 0.75$ with a good volume in the last minutes of the session. And unless the correction is there for a while, this stock has still pretty high to go.
If I can, because shorts are not "marginable"
So my last US long is Global Solar Index ETF (TAN).

On this side of the border:
Long:
SRSP
AW.UN (had another nice jump Wednesday!)
GZM.UN
DAY.UN
BQE (very small position, I want to wait and see how it goes)

And too much of a sort of TD Waterhouse Money Fund that used to bring an acceptable "income", that I bought quickly when my husband died and had no idea what to do when his SRSP was transferred to mine, and did not feel like doing anything: as a matter of fact, when they saw that I had so much cash in my SRSP,  they knew I was mourning, (the transfer had taken months!) they called me to offer this until I could take decisions: then came the big crash, no shorts in an SRSP as you well know!
But now, the return is too small, I must find something solid.
Don't know what apart maybe other income trusts.

I like to play around with my US account, and I make my CND shorts on the margin of that account, but I do not want to risk anything in my SRSP
They only good point of this fund, is that it's is slightly better than cash, but it is like cash, probably because it's a TD Waterhouse specific money fund: when I want to buy something, and have no cash, I'm automatically asked if I accept that they take some from that Fund, I don't have to sell it before.
My  shorts:
RIM
SXC


And then there is the
TSFAthat is so limited this year.
DGS
HTE.UN

OK, Father, I confessed everything (but not all my previous sins)
I always appreciate your comments, if you have any!

Louise

[bryanmcn]

Louise
Are you holding DGS Canadian or US?
Bryan

[bryanmcn]

Louis
Wow - HTE.un jumped over 30% at open! Nice pick!
Bryan

[bryanmcn]

Louise
Are you sure you want to short anything in this market? SXC is on an uptrend and even RIM can rise with the buying pressure we've seen lately.
Bryan

[garilou]

Hi Brian,

Thanks for caring for my portfolio!

1. I hold the Canadian DGS. Not sure if I like it though. I still give it a chance, my luck on HTE.UN has made my CELI jump as I would never have expected!

2. HTE.UN: For this pick, I must thank Victor, but I doubt he knew what would make it jump so much: a Korean has entered into an agreement to buy it with a huge premium: $10.00 per unit. But I did not wait: I just could not believe my eyes this morning, when it opened at 9.80! Sold at 9.73: 1887% annualized gain. I guess it was a pretty well held secret!

3. Covered RIM early this morning, at 69.25: 484$ profit not so bad in 7 days (120% annualized), but you are right, the volumes mostly, indicated that it was becoming very risky. I own long ones that do not increase that fast! They don't seem to feel the uptrend...

4. SXC is also very risky, and I must drive to Montreal tomorrow morning, so I just placed a stop order that, if triggered, will make me have a loss (with a stop, you never know at what price it will really go). I though about giving a buy order, and cash in a small profit: the prices seem to give a bullish trend, but the decreasing volumes keep it bearish. I'll give it another day or 2. But if it was not from to daily mark-to-market adjustments, I would wait longer.

5. Update to my "confession": I bought ISH again this morning while it was still in negative territory but showing sign of reversal, at 34.95,(I had been stop yesterday at an average from 35.59),and it finished, and it closed at 36.43! So the official increase for today is +3.83%, but for me it was 4.2%.

But not all is so rosy....

Louise

PS. Since it's out of topic, I'll ask you something  else (maybe tomorrow) in a new topic.