Predictions?

[bryanmcn]

OK all you techies. Whats your predictions looking at the DOW, SPY, TSX charts?
Have we retraced to a support and the bounce back has begun or is this a dead cat bounce?
Anti up!
No fair waiting till tomorrow either.

[burd]

I got 5 bucks on the market to continue its down trend. I will feel better when I see 250+ point gain with large volume. Until then I will be very cautious. I also need a little time to heal from my loss in lpx.

Heres a little write up on the us market

Wall Street’s attempted rally took a direct hit Tuesday from the housing market, as stocks tumbled broadly on heavy trading.
   The Nasdaq skidded 2.2% while the S&P 500, Dow and NYSE composite lost 2% or more.
   Volume swelled across the board, marking a distribution day of higher-volume selling.
   A single distribution day is often all it takes to effectively kill a rally try. And Tuesday’s sell-off showed not just distribution, but weakness on multiple fronts.
   It was the steepest decline in the major indexes since the market’s Feb. 27 jolt. All closed near session lows. Breadth was lousy, with declining stocks topping advancers by more than 9-to-2 on both the NYSE and Nasdaq.
Looking back at market bottoms in the past decade, it’s taken more than three months on average for a successful rally to take root

[bryanmcn]

Hey Burb
I think you lost that $5 bet. The Dow is up over 10% from March 14th.
Who would have guessed?!

[bryanmcn]

During the period from March to November 2007 the DOW rose 17%

[garilou]

Wow! This is an old topic!

Poor bryanmcn, you did not get to many replies when you started this topic!

March to November are...let me count: approximately 38 weeks!

What's important, is that between July 7th till August 4th 2008 (4 weeks), it gained 5.7%, lost a few since then though: From July 7th till August 11th, it is" a 3.9% gain in 5 weeks!
For an index is not too bad!

But who cares anymore what happened between March to November 2007?

But I am not going to do predictions, and not bet on them!

Well.. maybe... a small 5$ (USD) that it will go up another 8 to 9% in the next 2 to 3 months?

It would be a good Topic for a poll, wouldn't it?

But since we are on SSP, trading TSX stocks, we should try to guess the TSX: the time is over when the TSX walked along with the DOW!

Louise

[bryanmcn]

Most of my portfolio is in RSP's. I can't short.

[Super Stock Picker]

But even in a RRSP, you can still buy puts or bear ETFs, CAN or US...

It is not shorting but it is a good option in a bear market.

[Victor]

Bryan,

I'm starting to look into these for a swing trading strategy in a registered account.  Just need some time !  It is on the list of projects though.

Cheers,

Victor

[garilou]

But even in a RRSP, you can still buy puts or bear ETFs, CAN or US...

It is not shorting but it is a good option in a bear market.

I have never tried those types of investments. I'd have to lean more: I've tried once, and gave up.

But for taking US positions in an RRSP, I've done it twice, and then when I sold, my broker took such a huge amount to change back from USD to CND  , it discouraged me to do it again. I don't know if all brokers have the same practice. I know that TD Waterhouse (my discount broker) has been penalized for not giving enough information about those extra fees to its clients, but for me it was too late...