Harry Dent Jr's Predictions

[bryanmcn]

I have been reading books by Harry Dent since the early 90’s. He got all the movements in the market right through the nineties, past 2000 and to the present correct. He bases his predictions on demographics and the baby boomer spending wave. He says that spending habits are fairly predictable by age and therefore the behavior of the economy and markets move in predictable cycles. His latest book is entitled “The Great Depression Ahead”. He says that we are in for a short term (6 – 8 month) rally in gold, metals, oil stocks and the market in general as Obama’s stimulus package provides some short term relief and sparks a little inflation but that nothing can stop the downward movement of the markets and the economy and he says the depression will last for 10 to 15 years! He recommends watching for higher bond yields in mid to late 2009, sell all stocks and investments and get into long term bonds. As the depression hits the bonds will go up in value significantly.
You can hear him speak on you tube at;
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8sMdpuYbjBY

[ZhenHeil]

           He means that the cycle of life depends on the economy?


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Definition

[bryanmcn]

Actually its the other way around. The economy to a large part is affected by demographics and the 40 year spending wave. He says that the economy os slowing because the wave of boomers born after WW2 have peaked in their spending (around age 45 - 50) habits. As they save and spend less, the economy will slow. He predicts that this will continue for another 15 to 20 years until the echo boomers (children of the baby boomers) hit their peak spending.