ONR

[bryanmcn]

As soon as you start second guessing SSP you can't expect to duplicate their returns.

[desus]

I like to think of it more as inserting in a bit of my own judgement and analysis into the decision making rather than second guessing SSP, as you suggest above.  SSP is based on technical variables and I think it is important to insert 'other' variables into the mix when deciding whether or not to enter into a position. I just like to do a bit of my own due diligence and research. 

In the case of ONR, there is lots of sensitivity to TSX downturns and I am willing to hold for a bit longer despite the technical sell signals generated from recent market unease.

As for trying to duplicate SSP returns - this is not my main.  We lose this battle as soon as we pay commissions.  In my opinion, I like to think of SSP as a great resource for identifying strong stocks to put through screening.

desus

[bryanmcn]

I agree with your strategy whole heartedly.
You were spending a lot of time figuring out the exact SSP trading methods so I assumed that you were following their trades to the letter.
I have been watching on the sidelines since June. It hasn't even been tempting to jump in yet.
A base seems to be forming for the TSX but I'll wait for a solid upward trend to form before trading unless some individual stock looks good.
  The DOW looks good though.

[garilou]

Desus wrote:

I like to think of it more as inserting in a bit of my own judgement and analysis into the decision making rather than second guessing SSP

and bryanmcn wrote:

I agree with your strategy whole heartedly.

Although this might be a discussion which we could have in another topic, I tend to agree with both of you. Either you stick to SSP strategy, other you walk your own way to the best of your knowledge... and feelings.

I did not get out of the market like bryanmcn did in June, but I ... shorted a lot!
When SSP sends a sell signal, it's not for nothing! I shorted also in the US markets.
Now I am starting to buy again but carefully.

As you suggested in another topic, bryanmcn, (although I did not agree with your critical remark that SSP did not have time to do it, they do a lot I think!), I am now preparing a very sophisticated spreadsheet , that will allow those of us who want to, to follow strictly the SSP system to do the calculations very easily: building a fresh portfolio, follow its progress, and reallocate when a sell/buy orders arrive.


I'll have it first check by a total stock markets "ignorant" just to see if the sheet is usable by someone who knows nothing about markets and little about Excel, then I'll have it checked by Super Stock Picker, but I think it will take me another few weeks till it's ready for all portfolios and to translate it in French.

When it is ready, then I think I will really go 100% with one of SSP portfolios.


But as for ONR, I still hold, bought it late though when it became irresistible..


Louise
 

[bryanmcn]

First;

I have been following SSP for quite a while now and I have profited greatly from their system. When times are good, they are REALLY good!

But when things turn down in the market, the SSP system requires that they stay invested 100%, so when things are bad, they can be VERY bad. The recent 40% drawdown has most probably shaken out a lot of SSP followers. I mean  ... come on! ... Anyone that lost 40% of their portfolio in the past 2 months has GOT to be hurting.   

In my previous posts I challenged the SSP group to create a virtual portfilio and they did. The results in the $5000 portfolio were not as good as the $50,000 one because of the transaction fees but the $50K portfolio matched the performance closely. My criticism of SSP (nothing  personal guys) is that they didn't keep it up. Which leads me to believe that no one person could follow the system exactly either (why would they want to?).   

I must say again ... SSP has made me a ton of money. When I look at the performance of my portfolio in the past year I am amazed! 

[metro]

Louise,

Im sorry to see the hit ONR took today. If you have faith in this company than its an excellent time to buy at a big discount.

[garilou]

Hi you two!

bryanmcn, I replied to you in another topic:
Should we stick to a strategy?
http://www.superstockpicker.com/forum/index.php?topic=655.0

metro, you wrote:   

Louise,

I'm sorry to see the hit ONR took today. If you have faith in this company than its an excellent time to buy at a big discount.

 


Well metro, I appreciate your empathy, but do not be too sorry for me.

I was not at home today, and did not see what was going on, and since I hate stops... well it happened.
SSP sold ONR in all its Ultimate Price Momentum v1 to v4 (with weekly delays), I did not listen to them!
I am sole responsible for my loss but it won't prevent me from sleeping!


Now, whether I have faith on not should be taken into consideration,
The question is mainly if the market has faith or not.
ONR is in the business of energy. I should have sold before, I though that the energy bear trend was going to be very short, I made a mistake.

I very rarely buy more of a stock when it goes down. I'd rathe sell (or sometimes hold when the stock brings a huge dividend: for example, I did not only held to YLO.UN but did buy more when it went down, because the dividend went up from 9 to 12%! And now the stock is going up).
But this is an exception: I have lost enough when I was with a traditional broker and called him to ask about what I should do, and all the time received the answer "Well it's time to buy more, the stock was once worth that much!" I have paid to learn!

There is always a reason why a stock goes down, even if we do not know!
And it often puzzling, like I wrote 2 or 3 days ago in my post:
How can we interpret the news?...

Oups!  I wrote it and forgot to post it! No wonder I had no replies 
I'll adapt it and post it now.
Done:
http://www.superstockpicker.com/forum/index.php?topic=654.0

Same problem with interpreting the news: Yesterday they published their financial results.
At first sight it looked good.
But then...
"Open Range Energy loses $31,439 in Q2 2008"
Mr. Scott Dawson reports
OPEN RANGE ENERGY CORP. ANNOUNCES RECORD SECOND QUARTER RESULTS AND PROVIDES OPERATIONAL UPDATE
Well whatever Mr Dawson says, the market did not like those results...

We never know when the bottom will arrive!

Why should I not short it on the short term, then buy it back when the trend turn upwards?
Because I still think the stock will go back up, ( It still has a 5 stars rating of ***** ! so I guess I'm not the only one who thinks like that) but don't know for sure or when. I'll check the trend in in the commodities.

Louise   

[bryanmcn]

SSP has given me and the followers of the portfolios some excellant picks. I think we should follow the strategy as our independant risk tolorance allows. I am a wimp when it comes to risk.
I dissagree that one must tolerate high risk to get high returns.
My tactics are;
1) Check out the weekly and V1 SSP picks
2) Apply some simple TA rules as a filter
3) Filter a little more by eliminating low volume (lightly traded) stocks or penny stocks  that trade under a dollar (I occasionally make an exception to this rule)
and finally 4) decide what the maximum loss I could tolerate woul dbe and adjust the number of shares I buy accordingly.

I'll be following SSP and watching the TSX closely over the next few weeks as I think an entry point is coming. The TSX has based and could make a move up from here. The SSP weekly and V1 are also forming a base. 

Does anyone want know when I get back in?

[garilou]

Hi bryanmcn, (our hero!)

This all very interesting, but again I think you are posting in the wrong topic, and you will have less "visibility" under topic ONR as in a strategy topic.

2) Apply some simple TA rules as a filter 

I guess TA stands for Technical analysis. Which ones specifically?

Does anyone want know when I get back in?

I sure do! Let me know!
Louise

[bryanmcn]

I just look for the most recent postings and reply.
I use candlestick charting and trend analysis to keep it simple.