The Future?

[bryanmcn]

I hope someone took my advice and bought reverse ETF's on Friday. I wish I had!
Bryan

[garilou]

Hey BullBryan?
Don't they say: "Put your money where your mouth is?"

Yes I had listened to your recommendations, I had kept my HXD position, and added this morning one of yours:HOD.
Unfortunately, it was too late for today! We already new about the big drop of Oil, and because I was in a hurry, I got it too late: the drop was priced in.
So don't be sorry. I moved really too quickly: this is the type of thing to buy when the Oil is UP, and not already down.

But if its like my HXD, you said is was too early!  Maybe a few days too early, but I got a pretty nice ride today!!!
Might be the same with HOD.
But I'm starting to think that one must buy and put for sale right away. It not even a matter of day trading, I feel it's a matter of a few hours trading.

I've done that a few weeks ago (it was not an ETF, is was a regular - US - stock): I placed my order before the markets opened, went to Montreal, and a few hours later, with a nice gain of about 57$, what would have been a 500$ loss the next day. The TA looked nice though.... but the markets now, you can't turn your eyes away for more than an hour.

Louise

[garilou]

And ge,
Thanks for the article reference.
I only had a quick look, I did not have time to read it really thoroughly, which I will.
I am also a little bit skeptic on ETFs, they are really more betting than anything else, and I am sure that more experienced traders have a "know how" (like good poker players), that I do not have, at least not yet.

But they are so tiny proportions of my portfolio, it just adds a little adrenaline to the game... But I don't think I'll keep them very long: it's closer to horse racing bets than to portfolio building.
But that what I once said to my broker, LONG LONG ago, when I had one. I told him" OK you think I take to many risks (like shorting a gold stock while Gold was having an incredible rise), but if I did not do that, I might be betting on horses. [BTW, I did make a gain on that short, and both my broker and his daughter could not sleep all week-end): I covered on Monday with a gain of 150$, what was huge for me in that time, considering that it included 2 x $60 commissions]

Louise

[Super Stock Picker]

Hi,

Here is a link to an article that lists Canadian ETFs:
http://www.investorsfriend.com/Canadian%20Exchange%20Traded%20Funds%20Canadian%20ETF.htm

I haven't checked if there are some bearish ones that were not named here before...

[Super Stock Picker]

And another article about Leveraged ETFs and Microstructure Effects:
http://www.taipanpublishinggroup.com/taipan-daily-051309.html

[garilou]

Thanks for the links SSP,

As for the first one (list of Canadian ETFs), there is only one "1 time bear" bearish, not the most attractive one, the other ones are mostly the "ultra bearish " (2 times bear).
All links bring to pages that we (or I at least) will go directly to if I want info. And I find the comments... well so so.

As for the second link, the article is interesting and goes somewhat in the same way of thinking as the good article that ge sent, and that is really worth reading.

I think that both warn us not only but mainly against "ultra short" ETFs, which we did not discuss much here.
I too think it could be dangerous to build a full portfolio on "ultra shorts" as well as on "ultra long" ETFs, or simply ETFs.

For me anyway, ETFs are only like... a little bit of spice over a dull beefsteak.
I discovered them pretty recently, played a little bit on them to "do my teeth"(don't know if this expression is used in English), I was successful each time, but only because I watch extremely closely, they are also so versatile, and never fantastic results, maybe because im too unadventurous in my RRSP.

To tell the truth. I do not understand all the underlying concepts, and I am not sure I want to spend much time in trying to understand them.

But where else to turn these days in an RRSP??

Louise

[garilou]

Have we grown complacent?
Are we enough worried?

Just read:

Boring old VIX
15:10 EST Tuesday, Jul 21, 2009

Remember the VIX? Back when the world was ending, the volatility gauge was up around 80. But in the last eight trading sessions, the CBOE Volatility Index, as its properly called, has slipped below 25.

The VIX measures implied volatility using options contracts based on the S&P 500. In other words, high readings mean higher anxiety among investors. Lower readings, lower anxiety.

Some analysts read the latest figures as a sign that investors have grown complacent – they aren't as worried as they should be. Of course, others would suggest that better-than-expected earnings and moderately better economic reports justify the lower reading and signal another entry point to a hot market.

Copyright The Globe and Mail

Louise