Bonjour
Bonne Saint Valentin à tous
Voici donc l’heure du bilan, non pas du bilan cardiaque mais du bilan boursier. Ceci est le tableau des prix d’entrées et actuels (arrondis) de chacun des titres achetés l’été dernier ainsi que le % de gains ou de pertes correspondants.
stock juil 2013 fev-2014 % g/p
wfc 41 46 12
wpo(ghc) 496 658 33
wmt 75 76 1
wbc 76 96 26
usb 35 40 14
psx 58 75 29
pg 78 79 1
meg 9 16 78
mco 60 79 32
ko 41 38 -7
ibm 202 183 -9
dva 58 66 14
dtv 61 72 18
cop 59 65 10
axp 77 88 14
brk/b 116 114 -2
upro 73 93 27
hsu.to 20 25 25
hqu.to 29 41 41
Ayant investi une somme à peu près égale dans chacun d’eux, mon % moyen est de 19%. Depuis d’autres titres Buffett se sont rajoutés pour le prochain bilan.
su.to 36
lee 4
usg 29
xom 89
gm 36
lmca 129
bk 31
nov 74
cbi 75
Je possède maintenant 95% du poids du portefeuille de Buffett
http://warrenbuffettstockportfolio.com/index.htmlDepuis six mois je fais l’expérience Buffett. Il y a moins de trill que de jouer un 20 ou 30k en day trading mais j’y vais plutôt avec plus de 100k sur le long terme, je ne joue plus, j’investis, progressivement, sans me casser la tête ni les couilles. C’est l’idée même de prédiction à court terme que j’ai mis de côté incluant tous les indicateurs techniques qui viennent avec. Après tout 19% de 100k c’est quand même 19k ce qui n’est pas si mal en six mois. J’ai adopté sa philosophie, J’achète ses titres, je fais confiance au type et je laisse aller le temps.
Mais justement qu’elle est-t-elle sa philosophie?
Que recommande-t-il?
Buffett was asked by one investor if he should buy Berkshire, invest in an index fund, or hire a broker. Buffett delivered with his typical, common-sense rationale: We never recommend buying or selling Berkshire. Among the various propositions offered to you, if you invested in a very low cost index fund -- where you don't put the money in at one time, but average in over 10 years -- you'll do better than 90% of people who start investing at the same time."
"If you like spending 6-8 hours per week working on investments, do it. If you don't, then dollar-cost average into index funds. This accomplishes diversification across assets and time, two very important things.
Que pense-t-il du timing?
The oracle of Omaha warms investors against an incredibly common mistake: You shouldn’t try to time the market. He says it’s a mistake to predict or listen to others who predict the short-term movement of stocks. By the same token, he says you shouldn’t try to flip stocks like high-frequency traders do.
Instead, Buffett says the best thing the average investor can do is buy an index fund over time. That’s it.
‘’You don’t need to look at the prices of the stocks you own from week-to-week, or month-to-month, or even year-to-year,’’ says Buffett. ‘’If you own a cross-section of American businesses, and you don’t get excited (and buy) just at the very top, and if you buy in over time, you are going to do well.’’
As Shell points out, Buffett has become one of the world’s wealthiest people by following extremely simple philosophies. He buys into solid businesses that he can easily understand and holds onto the investments for long periods of time. According to him, doing decently well in stocks is ‘’very, very easy.’’
Que pense-t-il des fluctuations du marché?
Buffett a été inspiré dans son jeune temps par son mentor Benjamin Graham, son livre the intelligent investor a changé sa conception du trading.
Graham avait une allégorie à propos du marché. Il le considérait comme un individu un peu fou (Mr Market) un type bipolaire ayant des sautes d’humeurs, quelquefois super high et d’autres fois super down. Il ne faut jamais écouter ce type mais profiter de ces réactions :
Graham's favourite allegory is that of Mr. Market, an obliging fellow who turns up every day at the shareholder's door offering to buy or sell his shares at a different price. Often, the price quoted by Mr. Market seems plausible, but sometimes it is ridiculous. The investor is free to either agree with his quoted price and trade with him, or ignore him completely. Mr. Market doesn't mind this, and will be back the following day to quote another price.
The point of this anecdote is that the investor should not regard the whims of Mr. Market as a determining factor in the value of the shares the investor owns. He should profit from market folly rather than participate in it. The investor is advised to concentrate on the real life performance of his companies and receiving dividends, rather than be too concerned with Mr. Market's often irrational behaviour.
Que pense-t-il du cash?
The one thing I will tell you is the worst investment you can have is cash. Everybody is talking about cash being king and all that sort of thing. Cash is going to become worth less over time. But good businesses are going to become worth more over time. Of course, that's not to say that having a cash buffer for emergencies is a bad thing. However, having piles of cash -- tens upon tens of thousands of dollars in cash -- is a great way to guarantee a terrible return on a very large pile of money.
Connaissez-vous les deux lois de Buffett?
LA PREMIÈRE LOI : NE JAMAIS PERDRE DE L’ARGENT.
LA DEUXIÈME LOI : NE JAMAIS OUBLIER LA PREMIÈRE.
Je continue l’expérience Buffett car j’en suis satisfait. Prochain rendez-vous le 14 août 2014 pour un autre bilan et d’autres réflexions.
Grosbidou
