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Hi SSP,

I have the feeling that you are very busy in the moment,  but I would really like to receive a reply to my question.

Thank you,

Louise

[this week is worst]

Hi DCA,

I guess we don't chat very often but we seem to be the only ones to still express ideas on this forum.

I share almost 100% your allergy to ETFs.

If I was interested in Pharmaceuticals, I would certainly not buy an ETF.

Just a funny example:
Since a few weeks, in my US portfolio, I own (and trade a lot) Amarin -AMRN .
I trade it with (my own?) 3 thirds technique of down averaging.
Just yesterday I fell on an example of automated recommendations for ETFs that "could give us similar returns with lower volatility".
http://www.capitalcube.com/blog/index.php/etfs-with-exposure-to-amarin-corp-plc-february-26-2016/

 

Or I would not buy TAN to be exposed to CSIQ!

2015 was a great year for me, because in the portfolios were I couldn't short, (you know how much I like to short) I was long HXD and HED, which allowed me to keep stocks with great dividends.
I also owned CSH.UN, but also STB, FRU, AW.UN (that I sold completely with a too big profit  , I am now rebuilding a new position) and others similar.
After it cut its dividend, I also bought WIN: never believed I would do such a profit!

I did not do only good moves: since 2016, I even did very bad ones, so that 2 of my portfolios are doing great,(my registered accounts) but my last years winning portfolios are my 2016 big losers.

Back to ETFs.
When it comes to gold miners, there are so many, you cannot know them all!
Most just went up because of the probably short term boom in gold, and not for their intrinsic quality.
OK for Barrick, even Kinross (previously and since Thursday again) my favorite short.

Somewhat similar for the oil stocks.
For a few resilient ones, you have so many that went up when people naively believed the rumors of Saudis and Russians and even Iran possibly reducing production.
(That said, I still think that there is some upward possibility to oil: not $70 like some say, but also not $20 like others say)

But if during the long down period of the TSE, HXD and HED had been in the SSP portfolios, the returns would have been so much better.

And during this gold rally, HGU did even better as Barrick.
Had it replaced all other miners, then you would have other stocks in the portfolios, for the moment when gold will nose dive again.

Now look at the SSP portfolios: last week I already thought they were extremely risky, but this week is worst!

I have nothing against the sell of PRW.
But now all portfolios hold only gold miners!


You don't want me to ask what ETFs you own, fine, I told you mine.
My lazy portfolio also own HXU.

Thanks for your pharma ideas. Yes, too bad that so many were pulled down by Valeant.
Not all are so immoral. Never, ever, I would buy Valeant: what they did is unforgivable.
Now this sector seems over sold, that why I bought Amarin.
I choose it by first screening for a pharma stock located in Ireland and HEAVELY shorted.

Now to what you once called your best investment, https://www.kiva.org/, I would really appreciate if you told me more about you own experience.
My mother died aged 96 yo in July 2015, and we just received our inheritance.

I do not really need this money, so I gave a lot to charities, to my children and grand children.
I do want to keep some because I am not getting younger, and I was able to see how it was possible to keep my mom in good care thank to the money she had.

But I would be very interested to join you in KIVA.
I was always impressed each time I heard about the micro loans.

If you don't mind, tell me how you did to choose.
My question is not so much about who you were lending too (I pretty well know where I would like to lend) but how can you trust the intermediaries?
Especially in the agricultural sectors, how could I be sure that NOTHING goes to Monsanto, for example.
(All this could be in a private message)

I was happy to see your reply, and I really wish that SSP would reply too.

Hello,

Following the new listing and trading on the NYSE of Norbord Inc., the company has also changed the ticker of the shares listed in Canada on the Toronto Stock Exchange to OSB.

Our Low PEG Ratio portfolios are then swapping the NBD stock to the new OSB one.

Here is below the complete press release:
Norbord to Trade on New York Stock Exchange; TSX Ticker Symbol Changing To "OSB"

 TORONTO , Feb. 16, 2016 /CNW/ - Norbord Inc. (NBD.TO) today announced that its shares have been authorized for listing on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).  Norbord expects its shares to begin trading on the NYSE on February 19, 2016 under the symbol "OSB".  The Company will retain its primary listing on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX), but is changing its ticker symbol on the TSX to "OSB", effective February 19, 2016 .

In connection with its application to list on the NYSE, Norbord filed a registration statement on Form   40-F with the US Securities and Exchange Commission.  A copy of Norbord's Form 40-F is available at www.sec.gov.

Norbord Profile

Norbord Inc. is a leading global manufacturer of wood-based panels and the world's largest producer of oriented strand board (OSB).  In addition to OSB, Norbord manufactures particleboard, medium density fibreboard and related value-added products.  Norbord has assets of approximately US$1.6 billion and employs approximately 2,600 people at 17 plant locations in the United States , Canada and Europe.  Norbord is a publicly traded company listed on the TSX and will soon be listed on the NYSE under the symbol OSB.

Hi Garilou,

I must admit to having a near allergic reaction when I hear ETF.  (Though to be honest I have money in a few. Don't tell anyone!)  Lately I have been given attention from a variety of brokers pushing their "Managed" portfolio services.  Usually involves investing all my money into ETF. {one even had the audacity to suggest all of it into one mutual fund of a competitor.  I did not go for that but I did drive over to the competitor and open a brokerage account there}

So let me channel SSP here:  The principle of an ETF is that it allows a person with a small amount of money to diversify over a broader range of stocks than they could on their own and not have to worry about the buying and selling of individual stocks.  By their very nature they are designed to smooth out the effects of short term momentum in prices.  This momentum is the very thing that the portfolios here are intended to exploit.

Shaking that off, cueing dancing flames background lights and returning to my normal voice:

The Economist magazine states that 2015 was the "Year that Nothing Worked" in that no investment scheme seemed to achieve a profit.  I can attest that my SSP return for 2015 was -15.3% making it the worst ever year following the second worse year.  Thankfully my other investments picked up the slack so I can still claim to have done better than market.  Still, to be honest, I do not think any strategy I have worked in the positive sense.  Although, just to brag my Norwegian gas stock gained 33% (Thank you Mr. Putin) and I happy with RLI and GIG.  Still those are exceptions and it has been a while since the last 10 bagger.

Personally, I am returning to my love of Pharma.  I think the news on Valent has beaten up the sector and there are still plenty of pharmas willing to squeeze the sick.  I have my eye on MSL and GUD.

My equivalent to ETF is CSH.u and PLC.  The first has a steady supply of customers that it often is willing to pass onto the second.  In fact, you could say that the customers of the first are dying to leave and the second has customers that are dying to arrive.  Good dividend stream but not very exciting.  I will resist the urge to use the third obvious cliche.

And now to salve over the damage to my Karma from the above diatribe may I direct the attention of the readers: https://www.kiva.org/

D

We are pleased to announce that the issue is now fixed. The Market Timing page has been updated with the proper information. No signal was generated since Jan-29.

The issue had also an impact on our graphs that have been corrected as well.

Hi Louise,

Yes, it should be updated every day, but we have run into some technical difficulties.

We hope to get it back to normal very soon.

Best Regards,

["DOWN".]

Hi SSP,

Sometimes, it is not enough to go at cash when the MTI is "DOWN".

Some stocks can still do pretty good, as your non "+" portfolios performance show.

But in the past months, HXD and HED have done great, and hedged well.
Those have been in the portfolios where I cannot short (REER and CELI).
They allowed me to buy high dividend paying stocks, while they were cheap.

Recently, Gold has done very well, but not all miners have done equally.
In the moment your portfolios are pretty loaded with gold miners.
Why not introduce the ETF HGU?


Today it went up 4.30%, more then ABX (0.72%), RIC (1.19%) and K (3.46%) - my favorite short not doing too good these days, NMI (3.46%), not to talk about some who did really bad CGG (-4.08%).

Sure, when gold goes down, HGU will fall sharply, but again, possibly not as much as other gold stocks

Anyone's thoughts?

Hi SSP,

I wonder why the MTI has not been updated in the recent days.
When I look the page http://www.superstockpicker.com/market-timing.php, it always says:
"On Jan-29, the alert level for is set to 12844.87"

I thought this page was generated automatically.

Have a good week!

Louise

Hi DCA!
I had not seen your reply. The Forum has turned so quiet in the past years.
Nice to hear from you again.
Yes the biothechs are so unpredictable.
There are only 2 ways to trade them:
Either buy in the morning and sell at the close (bad news come always after hours).
or through the ETF HXC (Valeant hurt them all, but it should recover)

Your regret about Valeant remembers me when, more then 20 years ago when I sold Nortel (wasn't the name different them? I can't recall it), only 5 days after buying it :my son had asked me if I could lend him some money to buy his very first car - and that was the only stock I owned that I could sell with a small gain.
My broker thought I was foolish, but I held to my decision.
And each transaction in that time was $60.00!
The following day it fell more then 20%, and my broker called me at least 3 times, trying to know from where I had had the insider information!

LOL. We are not always so lucky.

Biotechs can be tricky
and go bump in the night.

I should get that in glow in the dark letters on a T-shirt.
I was cursing myself for having left Valent at $200 until it went bump in the night.

My Stockpicker portfolio still has not recovered from DND. (now CPH)  I blame Justin Beiber for that one.

D