Recent Posts

I'm still a bit confused by the delay filter that is used for the Ultimate portfolios.  And please forgive me for my amateur knowledge in this.  I am new to investing but am very much eager to get my finances in order and your program seems a great choice for me.

So, regarding the delay filter.  So it's a delay imposed by your software for 1,2,3,4, or 5 weeks before it performs an actual buy/sell into/out of the portfolio? So in that delay period i assume then it gathers more data about its underlying stocks and if during that period it changes it minds it will do so (e.g. if at the end of the day it wants to sell all holdings then it must wait 1 week for Ultimate v1 and if during that time the holdings performance changes then that sell is cancelled).

So then i assume this mean the software does not send email alerts on its intentions to buy/sell for 1 (or more) weeks or will one still get email alerts each day about the software intentions to buy/sell.  I'd prefer to get email alerts for say Ultimate v4 and v5 only.

Still researching more about your portfolios and tracking how well they are against other popular portfolios such as Couch Potato but so far i am very much liking what i see.  I do have some questions but seems best to do more checking through this forum to find my answers before posting.

It might take me some more days of researching this before i get the full confidence to pull the trigger and use my available cash to start slow but matching what your picker is doing.  Right now v4 seems more ideal for me.  Very fun stuff.

Hi new investor,
And Hi Bryan,(nice to read you again)

Happy to see some new life on the SSP Forum.
I come somewhat late in the discussion.

New Investor:

I think that following UPMv2 was a good idea.
But 15% loss seems a big loss though: Y to D, this has been the best performer of the 5 Momentum portfolios, with a lean 1.16% gain.
Have you read attentively how to build your portfolio and make the necessary adjustments when new orders come in?
If you have not done it yet, you should really read the "How it works", and take all the time necessary to understand it thoroughly.
Then if you have some minimal spread sheets programing abilities, you will be able to weight each of the stocks properly.

Although I follow strictly ... on "paper" on my spread sheets all 5 Momentum portfolios, I have started to give the stocks good checks before I got in.
The markets have been pretty volatile, but investors too complacent.
Each time a new stock comes in, I do a good fundamental research, then I wait for the right moment to get in, mostly based on the ATR 14.
So no, I do not follow the portfolio rules that I have worked so hard to program.

For some strange reason that SSP could explain, the portfolio UPMv4 that used to be the most profitable (and the most followed) is not as good as previous.
I started to stick more with UPMv2, that seemed to do better, it gives me time to watch the stock while they are in UPMv1), but as I said, I do not follow the rules strictly: I buy when I think it will be good, and get out very fast (Just got out of SHOP with a decent gain, but did not hold long: valuation is very high for a stock that will be great when it starts to make profits...)

But since a few weeks, even year to date, things for the Momentum Portfolios are not going as well as they used to.

The winner is the Earnings Estimate Upgrades Weekly with almost 30% Y to D.

It seems that investors have changed, and are afraid of stocks that have already had a good run.
And that they tend to trust the analysts more then ever.

I will have to adapt and make a new sheet with the same calculations for the Earnings Estimate Upgrades Weekly. It is easy, but I am so lazy and busy since I got my new young dog: she is so full of energy, and brings me so much joy, that I spend less time on investing (and doing pretty good too, especially in my US portfolio: 15% Y to D).

Anyway I hope we will see other discussions on this forum that used to be very active.

And if you read this, a good thank to all the SSPs: hope you are doing good.

Louise

Thanks Bryan. Appreciate the response.  Looking at weekly portfolio to buy few stocks for V1 either early or late is a good idea.

Hi -My portfolio has done about as good as the V1 states (just over 2%) although I tweeked it a bit. I used the weekly as a "heads up" to what stocks may be considered for the V1 and buy in early if it looks like the pick will run. I have also bought later than recommended if it seemed like the pick was burning out on the upside. For instance - I bought SHOP early at $91 and AUP late at $10.88.
I'm in for the long hall so I'm not worried about draw downs. I've noticed, over the years, that the SSP portfolios perform the worst just before they take off.

Just wanted to keep the forum going on the progress. I started using UPM V3 with $33,000 in Feb 2017. As of today, lost around 15% of the portfolio(i.e., $5,000). From Feb 2017, All the 4 transactions (bought and sold) for S (Sherrit International), TKO (Taseko Mines), NOA (North American Energy Partners), TCW (Trican well) ended up giving between 10 and 13% loss on each stock.  Of course, for TCW, TKO, and S, I bought at current price, but these stock buy signals were given way before I started SSP in Feb. So, I bought these at a different buy price than what is mentioned in UPM V3. 

I am planning to keep doing trades as per UPM V3 and see for few months. If the overall portfolio loss goes over 40%, I am not sure if I will stay, but lets see what future planned for me.

Hello,
I have a question on how the rate of return is calculated.
1. SSP assumes that all the money is fully invested.
2. Everytime there is a new buy signal or sell signal, the weight factors are recalculated based on each stock's performance and existing stocks are bought on the same day. So the buy price of the stock must change when you calculate the performance.

For example:
TCW stock was initially bought on 7th November 2016 (at the closing price on the same day) for $2.93 in Ultimate Price Momentum v3 (UPMV3). After 7th November, 2016, more than 5 sell signals are given (and few more buy signals are given) before 6th March 2017. For these sell and buy signals, there had to be re-balancing of the portfolio, causing to buy few more shares of TCW when these signals are given. The price of the TCW stock on these dates (for example: 14th November - sell IVN, 28th November-sell PIF and PIX) is definitely greater than initial price of $2.93. So as part of rebalancing, if more shares of TCW were bought, the average buy price of TCW would have been somewhere around $3.XX. But when I see the performance of TCW on 6th March, 2017 after sell signal is posted, I see the overall return as 57.68% (i.e., ((4.62/2.93) - 1 )*100). So TCW average buy price was considered at the original buy signal i.e., $2.93.   Doesn't this give wrong rate of returns for the overall portfolio?

Thanks Bryan for the response. I am also thinking of not re-adjusting for smaller changes in adjustments. For example, if the re-adjustment of existing stocks result in selling stock worth $200 or buy stock worth $350, I won't take re-adjust.

CIBC offers $6.95 trading fee, which is better than RBC, Questrade, TD etc..

I don't bother "readjusting". Its just not practical. I wish that SSP would simple work with a $100K (for example) portfolio indicate how much is invested in stocks and cash and deduct an average brokerage fee per transaction. It would make the advertised returns much more believable.
Losing 5-7% of your returns as fees is unacceptable in my opinion. 

Hello all,
I just started following UPM V3 with $33K. I am currently using Questrade (which I opened recently). Questrade charges ECN fees on top of their $4.95-$9.95 (1 cent per share). Though based on the volume of the shares I trade, you may get lower than $9.95 commission fee, with ECN fee added, it is very uncertain and in some cases, I may pay more than $9.95 per trade on average in fees.  If I go with RBC or TD they charge a flat fee of $9.95 or $9.95. 

In UPM V3, in calendar year 2016, there were 34 buy orders and 36 sell orders. Each time there is a buy or sell order, as per SSP suggestion, we need re-adjust the existing stocks to match SSP performance  based on this article.
http://www.superstockpicker.com/forum/index.php?topic=121.0
With some assumptions and rough calculations for 2017 for similar number of trades, if I go with RBC, I may pay between $1741 to $2368 i.e., roughly anywhere between 5.27 to 7.17% goes in trading fees. If I go with Questrade, I think I will end up at the same fee rates. In fact, Questrade will be even more uncertain..


If any one has suggestions regarding brokerage institutions that can provide lower fees, I really appreciate. Thanks in advance.