Super Stock Picker Forum

-- This thread is not updated anymore --
-- Please, refer to the MARKET TIMING (http://www.superstockpicker.com/market-timing.php) tab for the current value of our indicator (ou en Francais (http://www.superstockpicker.com/investir_en_bourse/indicateur-de-tendance.php))--

Hello,

We are currently busy coding our Indicator into our system, and it will take some time before everything is ready.

In the mean time, we will publish here the current value of this indicator plus the last 5 changes.

Note than since Jan-30, our Market Timing Indicator is now included in our daily emails. See this thread for more info (http://www.superstockpicker.com/forum/index.php?topic=1358.msg2608#msg2608).

Our Market Timing Indicator Current Value is UP

Also, note that on Mar-31, the alert level is set to 7961.21 (If the TSX closes below this value, the timing indicator will generate a new signal).

The last five changes are:

Date	Signal
17-MAR-09	UP
11-Feb-09	DOWN
05-Feb-09	UP
29-Jan-09	DOWN
28-Jan-09	UP

So if I understand correctly it has been down since September 2nd?

Can't say I am suprised.

D

That's right.

If you check the pictures and Excel files in the other thread about the Indicator, you'll see the performance lines flat as they are then all cash.

Hi SSP,

You write:

But is your system totally out of your control?
We still received enough buy orders (admittedly some have done pretty well, considering the market performances) well after September 2nd!
Maybe the "market timing indicator" completely conceived on that day, but even after your first posts about it, we still receive buy orders!
Should you not.. pull the plug? (Joking)

Louise

Hello Louise,

Indeed, our system will still generate all the buy and sell orders in the former portfolios even with the addition of our timing indicator.

When the timing is DOWN, we recommend to be cash and not to follow the orders in the former portfolios.
When the timing turns UP again, we recommend to buy the content of the portfolios and to start following the orders again.

I hope that makes it more clear now.

Also, note that we have introduced an alert level in the post that gives the current value of our indicator.

This alert level is the value that would make our indicator to switch if the TSX would close above this limit. This way, it is easier to anticipate the new signals.

Dear SSP,

could you please send us an email and let us know when the " Market Timing Indicator " has changed? This way we don't have to log in everyday to check if the  Market Timing Indicator has turnt up/down or not.

thanks
Jeff

Hello Jeff,

This will be done for sure, but it will still take some time to implement. For the time being we share the indicator value only in this thread.

We are currently busy integrating this indicator into our system. Once it will be done, it will appear in the daily email.

Louise,

When the coding will be done, some pages on the site will be automatically updated for the Timing Indicator the same way as what is currently done for the portfolios.

We will add a tab in the navigation bar, that we should name "Market Timing", and this will be the entry page for everything about our Timing Indicator: explanation, links to theory, historical signals and so on.

The current value of the indicator will also show up in some way on the homepage.

But let's do the coding first...

Regarding your other question, you really have to see the timing as an extra layer on top of the former portfolios. It is like a on/off switch.
But as you say, there is no warranty that a stock will not be a sell in 2 days, the same way as now, you don't know if you will have to sell in a week what you buy today.

Also, at some time, our indicator can produce glitches, and then generate buy and sell orders quite close to each other. We have tried to find a solution that limits the drawbacks, but there is a price to pay to get the comfort of the improved performances (more exactly lower volatility)

Hi SSP,
Thanks for this extra explanation.
I guess it'll be up to us, when a DOWN Market Timing Signal turns off to do our "due diligence" in order to decide whether we step back in with all or some of the previous portfolio holdings, or wait for new orders.

I'm sure it will be useful.


Louise.

Nov 29th
Only 243.57 points to go before the SSP indicator turns bullish.
Will we make it before the holidays?

Hello bryanmcn,

Actually, it is a bit less than that as the alert value for Dec 1st is set to 9493.00.

223 points then. Giddyup!

so if TSX couldn't close above 9493 for Dec 1st, i guess a new date with a new number will be set and we can see the changes then on this board, am i right?

Thanks

Hello jeff,

That's right. As we are close to the alert value, we'll update this post on a daily basis. This way, you'll be able to know what's the alert value for the next trading day.

And the same applies if the TSX closes above 9493 as there will be a new alert level set for the next DOWN signal as well.

Hi SSP,

I am still a little bit confused.  ???
I have re-read all the posts and replies in this topic (Our Indicator Current Value ) and in the topic Introduction to our Market Timing, since the beginning.

In your post from 10 November 2008 you wrote:



From which post were you talking about?

On 12 November 2008, you wrote:


 
Since then, it seems that you have been more busy installing your "TRADE CFD" on your web site, as the MARKET TIMING tab  still refers to this topic. (Not talking of the French part of the web site!!!). :-\

According to your spreadsheet TSX_timing.xls, we would be on a DOWN signal since September 2, which means that since then, we should have been "at cash", and none of your buy orders should have been "obeyed".
But you keep publish daily performances. Yes, I remember: both system will go on, one blind to the other one. I mean: your initial system will keep generating buy and sell orders, and it will be up to each of us, either to stay at cash (because of the DOWN Timing system), or to decide to go with the orders.

Since you published that spreadsheet, I have never read about this level of 9493.00 set for Dec.1st in this topic, until you replied to Bryan's "Giddyup" reply (Reply #13 )!

Have I missed something? Where should I have seen that the "target" was 9493, and the target day Dec. 1st, (if Bryan had not written his "Giddyup" reply)?

Where did Bryan (and maybe others) find that?
Has my ignorance something to do with the fact that I receive my daily Orders in French?

Anyway, if the SSP does NOT close at or over 9493 tomorrow -Dec.1- (no matter if it touches it during the day) we will still be under the DOWN "regime".

In your last reply to Jeff, you write:


And if it does, where will we find this? Will there be a date attached to it?

It's OK to KISS (KEEP IT STUPID SIMPLE as you replied to me a while ago), but maybe we could also say MICS (MAKE IT CLEAR STUPID)   :)

Louise

Hi louis
I think I can answer your questions;
The indicator with the 9493 taget is here;
http://www.superstockpicker.com/forum/index.php?topic=746.0
As for the answers to your other questions;
 - Yes
 - Same URL as above
 - Same URL as above
 - Maybe
 - Yes
 - Same URL as above
 - Yes

Ha ha!

Hi Louise,

The alert level was first introduced in this post:
http://www.superstockpicker.com/forum/index.php?topic=746.msg1848#msg1848

This is a level that changes every day, it gives you the value the TSX should reach in order to generate a new signal. Indeed, our algorithm makes it easy for us to find what value is needed to make a change if reached at the next trading day close, so we will publish it.

So, no crystal ball were used to get Dec-01 and 9493. The value was found on Friday and the alert level is then set for the next trading day.

For the time being, as bryanmcn has pointed you, this value is refreshed in the first post of this thread that gives the current indicator value.

And to answer another one of your questions:
You have received the exact same information if you receive our orders in French or in English.

Hi SSP,

OK I had not realized that the specific post was the one that was updated after each trading day.
Is it not rather
http://www.superstockpicker.com/forum/index.php?topic=746.msg1799#msg1799 ?

So now I know that I just have to check that specific post (that I have bookmarked) regularly.

So tonight, you will establish another alert level and post it there. Right?

Sorry sometimes I am fast sometimes it seems that I am quite slow...

Thanks for your reply.

Louise

Hi Louise,

Yes, the link you propose is the best to see the indicator current value and the alert level without any scrolling.

And yes, we have now updated the value with the new figure for Dec-02.

Dec 2, 2008 new indicator value is 9420.20
For archive purposes.

To be exact, the indicator can only get two values, UP or DOWN.
What is set to 9420.20 on Dec-02 is the alert value which is the level the TSX should reach to generate a new (UP) signal.

Done.

Alert level is now set under 9000.

Hello SSP,

I just wanted to say Happy New Year and congratulate you on a wonderful site. I used your Market Timing Indicator (MTI) as an excuse to overweight equities on December 29th. IMHO, I believe the market oversold and guessing the indicator would go long on the 29th, invested about mid day. So far, so good. Although possible to get whip sawed, I would rather this risk, then end up holding equities in a down trending market. This year was very bad for equity investors, (me inparticular) so good riddance to 2008.

My question is in regard to your MTI. The UP/DOWN signal is generated by using a few simple moving averages. Right? Assuming we get continued UP signals, is the alert level (now at 8463) going to follow the market up? It doesn't appear to have moved. If it does, move up over time, can the difference between market closing and the alert level, be used in any useful way? With the start of the narrowing of the spread perhaps suggesting a town turn. Also, does your 'TSX_timing' calculate the alert level. If it does, would you be able to attached the updated sheet?

Perhaps this question is better for another thread, but I notice, two stocks, (WPK & SXC) to be in 7 of your portfolios at the same time!!! It would seem if there was ever a time, it would be now. Your thoughts?

Thanks again SSP
Dave
 

Finally!
We have a positive market timing indicator. Giddyup

Hello sawyer,

Our Market Timing Indicator is indeed build around simple moving averages but it is definitively not as simple as moving averages :-)

So, yes, the alert level should somehow follow the direction of the market, but for sure, there will be some days when it will not be the case.

And we haven't studied yet if there is something interesting in the spread between the alert level and the the close value of the market. The most obvious information is that when both are getting close, then the odds to get a new signal are higher...

It will not be possible to publish the history of the alert level the same way as the indicator here on the forum. But when the tool will be fully implemented then, we should be able to publish both historical values. Then, those files will be available for download.

---

And regarding the other part of your question, when a stock is present in all our Price Momentum portfolios, it just mean that is has been bought in the Price Momentum Weekly at least 5 weeks ago and it has not received a sell order yet (plus it has been caught by the monthly version too).
Actually, a simpler way to see that is just to look at the holdings in the Ultimate Price Momentum v5 and you get the full list of stocks that are in all our weekly versions of our Price Momentum portfolios.

Thank you SSP,

The 29th was one of those days when the odds of a new signal being generated were good. For those using it as a reason to go long, the timing was excellent. It called the market right-on! Congratulations to whoever designed the indicator. Now, with the alert level lowering slightly, as the market rises, we can hold our longs overnight! :-)

The rise in the agricultural and energy stocks, since the December 29th, has been dramatic. I guess a rising tide, lifts all boats, but these sectors did very well. Perhaps as these sectors were so oversold. My best performer since the 29th was VT with over a 20% return. I couldn't bring myself to hold it over this weekend.

The difference between the alert level and where the market closes might yield some interesting information for trading. Your MTI, had you out of the market between Sept and Dec, which is great, but there were opportunities, in these months. As an example, I was invested quite heavily on the long side shortly before the US election, having bought on dips. I should have got out on Nov 4th, (with a significant gain) but hung on past the 4th. I was wondering if knowing this difference might have helped me make the decision to exit. For sure, knowing the history and the alert level would help make a more informed decision.

Thanks for answering my questions.
Dave

I was impressed by the way the MTI alert level followed the market down, while giving a sell signal on the market. With the buy signal since the Dec. 29th, the alert level has not changed very much. When the TSX closed, very close to 9500 on Jan 6th the spread was very large. (close to 1000 points) So generally, your alert level seems to act differently depending on whether there is a buy or sell on the market. When I look back at the TSX to the year 2000, staying out of the market when below the 50 day MA, appears like it would work well. I wonder how your portfolios would have performed using that simple principal.

Hello sawyer,

Well, in its definition, there's nothing different for UP and DOWN signal. I think what you've seen is more about the market behaviour itself.
If the market keeps going down for a few more days, it would make the last rebound very short lived. If you compared to the last DOWN signal, the market has kept the same direction for a while and with an impressive pace.

Regarding the years 2000, our portfolios were not there yet. So we can not back test this period. We can back test the indicator itself, but as its main usage is the volatility reduction of our portfolios, it might not show its full effect when only the market as a whole is considered.

Regarding a 50 day MA, it is obviously a good indicator of the medium term trend. But when building an indicator, you have to consider how efficient it is to give you an information about the current trend and also how often you could be whipsawed.

Hi SSP,

Could you elaborate a little bit more on what you wrote to sawyer, when you say:


Is it unhiding the "recipe" to tell us what else as the market as a whole is considered?

Thanks,

Louise

Hello Louise,

No, sorry, we were not giving any clue about our recipe.

What I was mentioning is that we could back test how the indicator would have timed the market. Then, we can compare this timing to the market without timing.
But this is not how our indicator should be assessed. Its purpose is to lower the volatility of our portfolios. And as our portfolios have no history before 2004, the back test of the indicator before that date would not bring a lot of information.

Does that explain better the meaning of our previous post?

It would be interesting that you update the graphs of the UPv4 with and without the market timing indicator to show the work of this indicator (the graph in the "home page" of the tab "Market timing").

Thanks,

jmath38

Hi SSP,


It's OK!
This why I asked before, if elaborating would mean unhiding the "recipe", because I know you do not want to give the recipe.
I was not asking for the recipe.
For the rest, I understood pretty well the meaning of your previous posts.

But as jmath suggested, it might be interesting to see what happened to the UMPv4 since the DOWN signal was lifted, as you had done before, while the DOWN signal was still active, and a comparison with and without the MTL.

But I would not insist on this, since you said recently that the tool is not completed, that you are still working on it, and you might think again that I am trying to get the recipe, which I am not!
In between I am trying to develop my own little one... and it is far from easy!

Louise

from 29-Dec-08's up signal to to today's (20-Jan-09) down signal , we came back to where we were in December. So December 29th's up signal did not generate any gains.  :(

Jeff, you write:



We are in a difficult period, that's for sure, but I think you are somewhat too negative.
Yes it's sad to be back where we were, in a sense, but to say that the UP signal did not generate any gains is not quite true.

During that period, and even before the previous  DOWN  signal was lifted, many SSP choices made pretty well.
In another topic, we discussed a lot about DDS, but it generated a pretty good profit for those who were not turned away by the E-Trade false alarm.

SXC did a pretty good ride too, although a good part of it was during the  DOWN  period.
As we understood, the goal of the MTL is to prevent too much volatility in the portfolios.

Even if we do not know the MTL recipe, the buy and sell orders still come in, which means that some stocks still have (or had) some momentum in them.

Whether "we" make gains or losses, we are in among the lucky ones who can afford to trade on the markets.

The really sad thing about that  DOWN  signal, is that it reflects that lots of people will have a real hard time in the coming months.
 
Louise

Hi Louise,
 
after the December up signal TSX did rise a lot, but if we followed the signal strictly and did not sell TSX until the down signal was issued, we gave back all the TSX gains and ended where we were. with my last post i mean: This completed up-down cycle did not generate gains.

Hello jmath38,

This is done.

Hello jeff,

Do not forget that this is not the primary purpose of this timing indicator.

We do not assess the indicator in terms of points gained over the market or by counting a success percentage of good calls, but we want it to give us a timing to reduce the volatility of our portfolios.

The indicator, by itself, is not that good, as it does add value to the market itself (except in 2008 of course). To make it useful, you have to time something that is more volatile than the market.

Our portfolios are good examples. You can also think at timing some ETFs that give 2x the market perf.

By the way, do not forget that there will be some wrong calls and whipsaws as well along the way. You have to expect this.

Hi SSP, Hi Jeff

SSP, you have updated the image showing the influence of the Market Timing Indicator, but since you go back so far in the time, it is somewhat difficult to see the real effect for us who had the first information as to those UP and DOWN signal on October 24 2008.

In order to show more the influence this tool can have to protect the portfolios, I have prepared this spreadsheet, taking all the orders (closed and still opened as of Jan 21), that were in the range from October 24 2008 till Jan 21 2009 for the portfolio UPM v4.
I think this will be, because closer to now, easier to see how the MT has changed the results.
Sure they are somewhat theoretical, because I took, like you do, the closing prices, which could differ slightly when one bought or sell, not only because the price fluctuates during the trading hours, but also because some were hard to buy or sell because of the volume problems (but this is another topic).

And Jeff, it might show you that it might be true that the portfolio did not gain much during those UP and DOWN signals, but that we could have lost much more! Weather the indicator is perfect or not, it worked!

And thanks again, SSP, to have us let us known about the indicator before it was finished.

I hope this will be useful, like a magnifying glass.

Louise

PS. I have not taken into account the allocation system. I just compared opening and closing positions. The results could be different, but I think not many users are strict followers of the allocation and re-allocation system. And since my %age results are the same as those posted by SSP, it  lets me think that SSP does not apply it's allocation system either  ;) .

Hello Louise,

About the graph, you can also right-click on it and select "view image". That opens the image bigger, so it is a bit easier to read.

A note about your research: you have been able to check the average return of the recommendation with and without timing. The difference between the two results shows that the timing has helped over this period. But, the figures are different from the portfolio's return over this period.

That leads to another part of your post. We are still using, and we will always do, the same allocation rule as ever. It is all automatic so it will never change. The fact that you can find the same returns without our allocation is certainly due to the fact that no stock has got a huge positive or negative return during this period. As a result, the portfolios performances are not too far from a simple average.

Hi SSP


You can imagine that I had done that first!
But big or small, the picture still showed so many years back that the short period between October 24th and now were still very difficult to see.

When I wrote the post I was pretty tired, because making that spreadsheet took me a lot of time.
It was my last interpretation that was wrong when I wrote:"...it  lets me think that SSP does not apply it's allocation system either" ,
I am somewhat mad at my-self that I did not think long enough to see that sentence was really erroneous.

But you also did not see where the mistake was.


The real reason?

I took the data for each single stock, and compared the percentages using the history page, where you show the buy and sell orders, with the dates and close prices.
On that page we only see the progression stock by stock, and not the progression of the portfolio with the allocation system.
That is why I come to the exact decimal to what the history page showed.

When you post your portfolio returns, you do apply your system, but those are on another page.
Doing the same exercise applying the allocation system would have been in retrospect more exact, but I would have needed days to do that..

Still I think that the spreadsheet shows that without the Market Timing, we could have lost much more, which was my intent.

I just hope that I did not introduce confusion for those who would try to do as I and a few other people did: take the time to really understand you allocation system.

I have "paper tested" it a lot, and could see that using the allocation et reallocations really brought better returns then simply buying and selling some of the stocks recommended. Sure, "paper trading" is never the same... still it is worth applying it, (in better markets as now).
But as long as the volume filter will not be completed, it will stay hard to apply you system: when the allocation said: buy 8000 shares of a penny stock, and a few days later, sell 1 or 2 thousands in order to buy another one or to ajust for the new prices of the stocks in the portfolio, when that stock traded in a way that it was almost impossible to buy or sell it, at least at prices comparable to your system that only considers the closing price, and that even if only 1000 shares or sometimes less were really traded on that day, or one big trade had brought the stock 5 to 10% higher or lower...it is much easier on "paper" than in real life.

But (repeat) this is another story, I guess it will come sometime.

Louise