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Title: PREDICTIONS Post by: bryanmcn on October 11, 2008, 08:29:51 AM Oct 11, 2008
Read to the end to hear my prediction. Believe it or not I have made some money trading ETF's (17% on HGD and 30% on HED) since Oct 4th. Thank you Victor and SSP. I wish I had known about these back in June. I sold them yesterday because I don't want to be stuck unable to trade on Monday (Thanksgiving) if the market rally's. This is a wash out. There is panic selling and the shorts are now in control. Washouts (like in '87) end with the shorts having to cover their positions. Tipical corrections run their course at the 50% retracement level. We are very close to that. The Dow has support (ok ... it was 6 years ago) between 7500 and 8500. Commodities and markets are all WAAAAY under their moving averages. THEY WILL REBOUND. We are in a down trend and momentum is strong but there is no fundamental logic to this much of a decline. This is ALL PYCHOLOGICAL!! (of course 80% of market moves are pychological). So.... my prediction. Within a week or so (before Oct 24th) we will see a HUGE bounce. In the DOW, possible a 1200 point day. When it starts to move up, it will ROCKET up, possibly to 10,000. Think about it. The DOW has had 7 straight days of losses. 7 trading days ago it was over 10,000. Now its at 8500. It HAS to correct. The shorts will have to cover and the buyers will jump in. This correction must be corrected. Title: Re: PREDICTIONS Post by: bryanmcn on October 11, 2008, 09:06:20 AM Is HAD.to the Canadian ETF for the DOW?
Title: Re: PREDICTIONS Post by: Victor on October 12, 2008, 09:17:23 PM Bryan, good on ya! Wish I'd done the same!!
I concur on your prediction, unless Monday continues the decline. Otherwise the bounce should come, and I'm thinking 25-30% as an index target (pick your index). With a weak economy I'm guessing the rally is not sustainable. The HAD is agricultural commodities. Not sure how the mix is done, probably using somebody's index. Cheers, Victor Title: Re: PREDICTIONS Post by: garilou on October 14, 2008, 01:23:01 AM Pretty good prediction Bryan!
Maybe it was not quite 1200 points, but what happened Monday came much earlier as you predicted! Let's see how it looks like on October 24th! You wrote: Quote This is ALL PYCHOLOGICAL!! (of course 80% of market moves are pychological). PYCHOLOGICAL: was that a typo or a joke? But you are right, and psychologically, investors are fundamentally optimistic. The notion that the "market is always right" or that it is rational might not be totally wrong, but in the long term only. So sure the correction must be corrected. I guess Tuesday, the TSX will follow, as are the Asian markets doing at this time! The jump we saw might be a first reversal signal, but I think it will need some time to become a real bull trend. Do not forget it happened after the US government, as they say, "nationalized" the markets! So now, want it or not, can afford it or not, all Americans are "investing" in the markets! There will be many ups and downs coming. (That's my prediction, I am not an optimistic) Because apart investors, there are consumers, and they are the ones who will make the companies do well or not. But the last weeks markets have created real undervalues, and even if they do less good profits, there is room for higher stock prices. There will be many ups and downs coming. (That's my prediction, I am not an optimistic) Let's wait and see when the empty SSP portfolios will start to fill up again ;) The shorts covering was probably a good part of that "unusual gap up", and I got caught be my not covering my short on IBM >:( You certainly did the right thing in short term trading! And short term trading should still stay the rule for a few weeks Happy for you, Louise Title: Re: PREDICTIONS Post by: bryanmcn on October 14, 2008, 06:43:53 AM I should add ...
Overall the markets have strong downward momentum. Mondays rebound is short term. I wish it had of been a little less extreme. Its hard for most swing investors like us to take advantage of these gaps and violent daily moves. I don't see this as a reversal but for many its an opportunity to gain back some losses and get out. Looks like a dead cat bounce to me. Don't forget to vote! Title: Re: PREDICTIONS Post by: garilou on October 14, 2008, 04:55:24 PM Bryan, Well I think we both predicted well. This was a short term, artificially produced, rebound. I loved your "Looks like a dead cat bounce to me." The great Guru ( Cramer) wrote today: Shorts Got Booted Out of Paradise Probably many did cover their shorts, some maybe were forced out of them. I told you I thought that part of yesterday's huge bound was probably due to shorts being covered. Well not me! I held to my shorts! I got quite a (paper) loss on IBM yesterday, a very smaller one today. It's a hold! Shorted the US TD Bank (my bank - it's a shame) yesterday, had a few cold sweats this morning, but now I'm almost back to where I was Monday night. But this won't be a long hold I think. Cheers, Louise PS. And once I started to be reassured, I did go and vote! Title: Re: PREDICTIONS Post by: bryanmcn on November 14, 2008, 07:42:21 AM I recently came across this site that offers daily technical commentaries.
http://www.iepstein.com/ExternalApps/Full/FuturesTV/IndexReviewVideo.aspx I have noticed that he is usually a bit wishy washy about where the markets are going but not yesterday (Nov 13). He clearly is sending a message. COVER YOUR SHORTS! He's not saying to go long but says that Nov 15th is a very important day and explains why so its a good time to be in cash until then. Interesting to note that he called a bottom at mid day when this video was shot and the markets shot up after that. Title: Re: PREDICTIONS Post by: garilou on November 15, 2008, 04:35:17 PM Hi Bryan, I went to the link you gave, (thank you), and watched both Epstein's videos (13 and 14 Nov). (I agree with your "wishy washy"): what he says seems to make sense, but I think he is a little too much on the charts, and not looking at the whole picture. I find the guy somewhat pretentious, but that's OK, the guy has something to sell. But let's come to the point of covering the shorts. I have covered all my shorts between 3 and 5 days ago, and I regretted it, because, although I had real good gain on IBM, it could have been so much bigger, had I waited. Remember in my previous post, I had said IBM was a "hold" (meant a short position hold)? Well I did not hold long enough. I shorted it twice and still bite my fingers that I did repeat it a 3rd time. For another one, I had a really small gain, which also could have been much higher if I had waited 2 hours more: I had placed my orders late at night, woke up to late in the morning: in the moment I wanted to modify my limit buy order, it was already filled. Well, no one ever got poor by cashing small gains. I never have big "baskets" at the same time. [It reminds me of a friend, xx years ago, who was a repent less "Don Giovanni". I asked him once: "Seducing so many girls does not bring you into problems sometimes?", and he said: "Many, yes, but never more then one at a time ;)!"] Now I am long on 2 stocks in my RRSP that, day after day, made for one small, for the other big, "paper" gains. I think they are both at their (short term) top. I'm going to get rid of them on Monday. On the first one, it will be a pitiful gain, (if not a loss) and for the other one that is an Income trust, an 12% gain in 5 days in such a bear market... risky: lots of people who bought it before me will take their gains, not waiting for the next monthly dividend (17% / 12). I'll re buy it a day or 2 before the ex-dividend, it's is still technically terribly bullish on the long run, so I'll see till then. But you know me! Sure this summer was a benediction for me, but bear or bull markets, I always short. Maybe because people say it's so dangerous, I have developed a skill and some techniques. I win more then 85% of the times, and my losses are very small amounts, as compared to my gains, except for one big one this year: trusted too much analysts, and forgot for a moment that bad results are already priced in the stock when they come out in the open. That "thing" managed to trigger my stop (placed pretty high), 2 days after I shorted it, and as you know, when your stock hits the stop, it goes to market! Got really mad at my-self, because I had not spent the research time that I usually take before shorting (or buying). But my "track record" is so much better on shorts as on long positions. So yes I am at cash a lot now, and I feel really bad. If Epstein pretends the technique that he has developed will be his legacy when "he's long gone", where I found nothing so revolutionary, I guess I should publish my shorting techniques ;). Maybe I am as pretentious as Mr Epstein :-) . And you, where are you? Still on the sideline? SSP is doing not too bad in the moment. I am experiencing "on paper" to apply exactly their re-allocation technique: there is much more to do if one trades a little bit between the "Buy" and "Sell" orders": this is no time to think long term, even in UPMv2. I have never traded so much before as this year! (My income tax report will need pages! Because I did do much trading in my RRSP) It was nice to hear from you again, Louise Title: Re: PREDICTIONS Post by: bryanmcn on November 15, 2008, 04:50:16 PM I'm long on a couple of ETF's and will probably sell in a day or so.
Title: Re: PREDICTIONS Post by: garilou on November 15, 2008, 04:59:19 PM Quote I'm long on a couple of ETF's and will probably sell in a day or so. May I ask which ones? Title: Re: PREDICTIONS Post by: bryanmcn on November 15, 2008, 07:11:24 PM HSU.to and HXU.to
Title: Re: PREDICTIONS Post by: garilou on November 17, 2008, 06:57:46 AM Bryan, About HSU and HXU Please do not take it as an intrusion! Anyway, you said you were going to sell in a day or so. The day should be tomorrow... well, today Nov 17th. I'm testing my predictions! HSU Closed Friday at 7.31. At short, medium and long term, it looks like SELL. (OK you can find that anywhere) My own very short term prediction, is that although HSU seems to stay comfortably between its resistance and its support, unless it is pushed up by the crazy market we experience these days, I think HSU will swing between a High at 7.63 and a Low at 6.80. With the 7.47% drop it took Friday, it has broken it's previous support: the High could be early in the trading hours,depending on the general move of the market, but it will probably close pretty near from my Low prediction. So if you were not even a day trader, just an hour trader, I'd say look what is does at the opening to decide whether you hold another day or not. But since you are not such a trader... HXU Closed Friday at 11.94 My predictions are about the same as for HSU, with a High at 12.37 and a Low at 11.42 Just testing.... ;) And if I am pretty close... you give me an applaud :D Louise Title: Re: PREDICTIONS Post by: garilou on November 17, 2008, 07:00:50 AM Hi Bryan, (and who ever else reads these posts) Coming back to the Epstein's videos you that you gave us the link to, and where in my reply, I said: "I think he is a little too much on the charts, and not looking at the whole picture." By the whole picture, I meant the global economic situation, and not only the stock market. Well I should also have said: "if he looks at the charts, he looks at them from too close." He was talking of a triple bottom, did not say that the market was starting an upward trend, but urged investors to cover their shorts. But all what he showed, with his moving averages and Bollingers bands etc. was built on a charts covering only the past 3 months, not even! I never make a trade without looking first at a weekly chart. that gives a much broader "picture" Then only I look, (for the timing) at the opposite, the closing data and the intraday chart. Now if you look at a longer time period, mainly on a weekly chart (this one is form Stockcharts.com, and shows the NYSE NHNL (New Highs New Lows), you see no sign of any "triple bottom": Let a monkey pick 10 stocks and short them for a few weeks, you'll be rich! So SSP is still pretty good at finding stocks with some upward trend! Louise Title: Re: PREDICTIONS Post by: garilou on December 02, 2008, 01:15:57 AM Hi Bryan, I think I was pretty right, when I said that Epstein looked at the charts from too close. It was certainly to early to cry "Cover your shorts!" We are not "out of the woods" (translated from French, don't know it this is used in English but I guess you'll understand. Now that even the credit cards start to limit the credits, it might force the American to limit their debts, but if the American economy absolutely needs that the Americans spend a lot of money in order to grow, I think we are getting into a vicious circle. I was terribly wrong on my daily HIGH - LOW predictions for your HSU and HXU, but I guess this did not prevent you from selling them! My only long positions in my RRSP are really good protective things, but I can't say they bring a lot of money in: XSB and XGB. They go up when everything goes down and reverse. But since I have nothing else that could go down... I think I'll get rid of them and place everything in my TD B164 that brings it's steady 3% (yearly) with a drip every month. This fund is really fast to change to cash if ever I need it. I had sold some when I thought I was going to jump into one of SSP's portfolios, but I think it'll take a while until the DOWN Market timing signal will turn to green... Else I'm always into shorting, had a good ride on AAPL today, tomorrow, I think I'll short VISA. But today, I have covered to most stupid short I've ever done in my life! This would be a fun new topic: "The most stupid move you've done". I think this one would win the first price :D The always pessimistic, Louise Title: Re: PREDICTIONS Post by: bryanmcn on December 02, 2008, 03:25:52 PM Dec 2, 2008
Each time the DOW or TSX come off a recent low they have been making lower highs. The highs made 2 days ago were no exception. Then they make lower lows. And the ones made around Nov 21st were no exception. Whats interesting about the low that the DOW made was that it was at a long term resistance point (Around 7500). If the DOW breaks significantly below 7500 then LOOK OUT BELOW! If it recovers and heads to higher ground without challenging that low then it is heading for a higher high and the down trend will have been broken. I think the DOW and the TSX will both reverse and head for higher highs before the week ends. IMHO Title: Re: PREDICTIONS Post by: garilou on December 04, 2008, 12:22:30 AM Hi Bryan, Although I still think that you might not see the big long term picture in your prediction. The week is not finished, but I must admit that for the past days, you prediction seems (at least for the DOW) pretty good! (it hurts!) It is very possible that the depression has already been priced in. The market is fast and always in advance. But this depression is predicted to last pretty long! They say "Politics never influence the markets, but the markets DO influence the politics!" We can see that pretty close to us in the moment! It is not unusual that the DOW and the NASDAC go in opposite directions, but since months, the TSX has with few exceptions mimicked the DOW charts (although in percentage almost always many % points under). Today was one of the few where they "came back to normal", I mean not going in the same direction. I guess you are eager to see that DOWN timing signal to switch to green! I feel now in a in between, and being 100% at cash is not funny. Let see how the next days will go! Lots of jobs to be lost, both in the US and Canada! But I guess we coming closer to the "normal" in that individual companies results will be taken in account, and for a while we won't be able to pick with the help of the monkey I talked about a few posts lower ;) L. Title: Re: PREDICTIONS Post by: bryanmcn on December 06, 2008, 01:20:55 PM Dec 6
The TSX retraced downward more than expected because of oil prices but the DOW retraced half of its previous weeks gains and then bounced. Although the chart isn't well formed, I think 7500 is long gone and we should go up from here. We have a Christmas rally to look forward to as well so this is good news for the bulls. The question for us is wether or not the TSX will move up or fall below the last low made on Nov21st. The DOW needs to punch through the 9500 mark in the long term to be confident about an upward trend but my money is on the bullish side in the US. Its had to imagine oil continuing to fall from these levels without at least taking a break (Oil was $145 back in July and its less than $41 as of Friday!). A bounce might give the TSX what it needs to form a slightly higher low and move up. Lately it has been moving with the DOW so it should rise from here. CAsh is the best bet for the next few days IMHO but I think we'll see a rally next week. Title: Re: PREDICTIONS Post by: garilou on December 06, 2008, 04:54:33 PM Hi Brian,
I think we should change our nicknames: you'd be BullBryan, and I'd be BearLou! ;) You are bullish because like 90% of investors, you are optimistic. But I do not know on which basis you make your predictions! Intuition? crystal ball? magical thinking? I would really like to know! After all being a "hero" should not only be a matter of how many posts one writes! Because I can tell you why I am bearish! Look first at the TSX (although it should come last, because the American (and global) crisis, is just starting to hurt us.) Because the TSX is so bound with the oil and metal commodities, a move upward of those would certainly help. BUT! I was looking yesterdays what stocks were in the Ishares that mimics the SP-TSX: http://ca.ishares.com/product_info/fund_holdings.do?ticker=XIC First I have compared XIC with the actual SP-TSX, and with a few days exceptions, it really mimics it really good. (And surprisingly, in the past 3 months, very close to the NASDAC too!) Now the first largest positions in that portfolio are: 1. ROYAL BANK OF CANADA (RY): Very bearish (surprising!) 2. ENCANA CORP (ECA): Slightly bullish in the short term but could move up if Oil and Gas go up (which will not happen very soon) 3. TORONTO-DOMINION BANK (TD): Very bearish ! (I'm still short on this one) 4. BANK OF NOVA SCOTIA (BNS): Very bearish. 5. BARRICK GOLD CORP (ABX ) : Slightly bullish: and probably not too affected by the Gold price, what anyway seems to starting an upward trend So 3 Financial stocks amongst the first 5! As for the DOW! After Friday's news, I doubt it VERY much that the DOW will keep the up move of last week. You write: Quote We have a Christmas rally to look forward... Have you checked if this is a myth? Look at those 3 attached charts (2005 -2006-2007)! And tell me if you can count on that rally! I mean for a long term turn around: maybe slightly more volume in December: people take their profits or losses depending on what they need for their Tax reports. But when the trend is up, it stays up, when the trend is down, it turns back down right after. Once again, I think that you look too much at the very short term, at the daily numbers and charts, and do not see the large economic picture! A rally next week? Maybe, but not enough to turn SSP Timing signal to green! When it goes to buying and selling, in these times, I too look to the very short term, there is not much else to do but short term trading, apart, as you suggest, staying at cash! Or buying those fixed revenues Ishares (XSB and XGB are pretty bullish and will stay so as long as the TSX and the DOW do not recover). I would really like it if you did not just make new predictions once a week, and if you discussed my posts, argue against me a little bit! Sure it takes time: I rarely take less then 45 to 60 minutes to prepare a post. I don't know if they can help others, they help me anyway. Still hoping that your predictions could materialize! BearLou ;) Title: Re: PREDICTIONS Post by: bryanmcn on December 06, 2008, 05:42:41 PM I am not changing my predictions. I said that the DOW would reverse and it did. I thought the TSX would as well and I think it is about to. Its all technical. Your fundamentals don't mean a thing. They are worked into the price of stocks already.
The DOW has a long term support at 7500. Look at a ten year chart and you'll see what I mean. It's gaining upward momentum and I don't think it will sink that low again. Oil can't stay this low just like it couldn't stay at $145 a barrel. It will move back to a reasonable price when the speculation stops. Then the TSX will move. I think this will begin to happen on Monday because on Friday it formed a dragon fly doji - a bullish reversal pattern. I'm staying in cash for now. Title: Re: PREDICTIONS Post by: garilou on December 07, 2008, 04:17:02 AM Hi BullBryan,
1. Quote I am not changing my predictions. And I did not say you did. Although on Dec 2, you wrote: "I think the DOW and the TSX will both reverse and head for higher highs" The Dow did, not the TSX. Will it follow? Who knows? But you might be right, I won't challenge this. This is IF the Dow confirms what you see as a new trend. You've been talking about that "long term support at 7500" of the Dow for a while already. But in order to talk about a support, the level must have been tested at least one. On a 10 year scale, I do not have a magnifying glass to see it, but it has probably been tested a few times in September 2002. But it did not last. And look at the volumes you still had! December 2008 is still too young to compare, but if the volume triples till January, it will be comparable to the volume we had recently in August 2008. (And it might be caused by the end of year movements). That volume increased in September and October, but it was a volume on decreasing values!, when investors started to realized that their brokers were wrong when they said "it's just a correction" or "what goes down go up again", and got rid of their Mutual Funds. Between November and now (always on that 10 years scale, you can see a small - positive - change in the downwards slope for the DOW. Put the TSX on the same chart, there is absolutely no such a change in the slope, to the contrary, the slope is still closer to the vertical! If one changes the scale and go to a one year chart: you are right (and I admitted it a few days ago in my reply # 15) there seems to be a an upwards momentum in the DOW and during that time, the TSX departed from the curve, and went back to new lows, and (in %) went a lot lower then the DOW. 2. Quote Your fundamentals don't mean a thing. They are worked into the price of stocks already. I don't see any "fundamentals" in my last post. There is a difference between "fundamentals" and global economics. No one can remember of anything in the modern times (and certainly not in 2002), as large as we are facing now. We're not talking of individual stocks financial results, or even sectorial financial results that could be already "priced in". Financial results in the moment do not seem to be significant in the move of individual stocks, much less on the general tendency. 3. Quote Oil can't stay this low! I wish you were right! (I personally receive monthly payments on Oil and Gas Royalties). But this also what Air Canada thought when they "hedged" them-selves between 90$ and 95$ a barrel and look where they are now! If it went up, this would only contribute to make the "crisis" worst: in Canada, when they talk about investing on "infrastructures", it is not the same as in the US, where infrastructures are mainly road and bridges, anyway nothing much for public transportation. But the individuals and the transporting companies (on ground, oceans and air) could not afford a higher price! The American airlines did terribly good when the oil price started to go down (Air Canada excepted and a few ones), but now they are slowly but surely going down too! Why? Certainly not because the CEO's of the "Big 3" take their hybrid cars instead of their private jets to meet the congress! ;) 4. California is about to go bankrupt! One of the largest economies in the world. And not talking about the "three big"! The past 10 to 15 years were based on unlimited credit. I don't know if you've heard of that guy who wanted to take advantage of the low housing prices, and buy one of those "for seizure" homes: he had the cash to buy it, wanted a mortgage to repair the damages: people who must give their houses away (2700 per day!) leave with everything they can: the sinks etc.. Well that guy could not get a mortgage, simply not! People are starting to throw their credit cards to the thrash (on of the reason I'm short on VISA): When the DOW showed signs of wanting to go up, VISA peaked in a tremendous proportion (I'm not making a cause-consequence relationship here: people who make the credit cards rich are not those who invest in the stock markets)! Then it was pulled down with all the stocks. On a very short term basis, I can say I was too early,(and I might be very wrong) MasterCard did much worst then VISA (was too expensive still for me to short), but it will follow the trend: if credit cards start to limit the credits, if people simply go bankrupt, the credit cards that made so much money with their abusive interest rates and the percentage they take on every buy, will not cash even the minimum monthly payments, and the consumers will buy less for a big while! So in a sense the direction of the credit cards could be a good indicator too! 5. Quote Friday it formed a dragon fly doji !!! You are comparing a one day pattern (and candle patterns are only interesting in the very very short term), to a 10 years chart! The news were so bad Friday that probably lots thought that we had touched "the bottom of the barrel": but if you look at the volumes (this time on a 10 days chart) they always happen a the very end of the trading day, equally on up and down days, which means exactly that: the market now is not in the hands on "buyers" or "sellers" they are in the hands of day traders! At the end of the day, sure the markets are in advance on the general economy. Not sure at all if they will have a big impact, but all the measures governments are taking all over the world, in France particularly, might have some. But by doing so, the markets are going progressively into the hands of the governments (which brings up the hated word of "socialism"): might be a good thing for a while, but all the citizens will have to "buy" those markets and pay for them. Is this already priced in? Maybe yes, maybe not yet. "IMHO" I think not. When it goes to individual stocks fundamentals, yes the technicals show that those results were most of the time already priced in, but now we're talking of something totally different, where all the "Joe the plumbers" of the world make the call! Just some thoughts that you might call fundamentals... BearLou Title: Re: PREDICTIONS Post by: bryanmcn on December 07, 2008, 09:01:27 AM I define fundamentals as anything you or I or anyone knows about the market. That includes financials, global economics, oil prices, jobless rates, interest rates, etc.
By definition - if you know about it then someone else does (assuming its not inside info) so its already built into the price. Technicals are ONLY used as predictive tools. They look at long or short term patterns. The DOW has long term support at 7500. Long term because it was a turnaround point in 2002. The recent test of the same level means that the DOW is "unlikely" to go below it. One day patterns CAN make a difference. Look at any chart and you will see piercing arrows, spinning tops and bullish engulfing patterns. Their predictive values are not 100% but the probabilities of being right increase if you use them. If your economic information changes and the markets go up, you have a good excuse. My historic technical indicators do not change. If the markets sink on Monday then I am wrong. Period. We'll see Monday. Title: Re: PREDICTIONS Post by: bryanmcn on December 08, 2008, 05:19:17 PM Its 20 minutes after the close on Monday, Dec 8th and the markets rose as I predicted. Luck? Perhaps ... but given the technicals, the probablilities were in my favor.
My prediction for tomorrow is with less confidence. I see markets pulling back a bit. Gaps like to be filled so the TSX could pull back to the 8100 level. This could be a nice buying op as I see a rise throughput the week. We could even break 9000 by weeks end. Title: Re: PREDICTIONS Post by: garilou on December 09, 2008, 01:57:34 AM Hi Bryan, I would have liked to be the first to congratulate you about your prediction for today! When the markets closed, I had to go for my "end of afternoon nap", and I was really exhausted. I was happy of the discussion we had in the past days. Whatever happens tomorrow, I think that so many stocks are oversold that the new trend will last at least for a few days (will it?) and it will be interesting to see if the last low will be tested again to become a support, and most of all, where will a resistance build up, because I guess until the market goes back really upward, there will be a relatively long trading period. Will SSP's signal turn green soon? The level to trigger it has gone down again today. I'll let you do that prediction! But I am impatient. And let us know when you come out of you cash position ;) (And before you ask, yes, I naturally got stopped out my shorts, while I was voting at -23 degrees, pretty late though, I thought it would come much earlier and till 2:00 PM, I thought I could stay under) I would still like to discuss another small thing, but tonight, you deserve only my congratulations. Louise Title: Re: PREDICTIONS Post by: bryanmcn on December 14, 2008, 08:01:58 AM Dec 14, 2008
We didn't see the TSX hit 9000 this week. In fact, it formed a lower high and pulled back. From a technical perspective its forming a triagular pattern. Its consolidating. There is a higher than average probability that the trend will continue downward after the consolidation is complete. Thats the bad news. The good news is that the DOW did make a higher high just touching over 9000 before pulling back. Friday it formed another bullish pattern and looks like it will move higher on Monday. Will the TSX follow the DOW or are their trends parting ways? Looks to me like the latter. Title: Re: PREDICTIONS Post by: garilou on December 14, 2008, 02:03:59 PM Quote Will the TSX follow the DOW or are their trends parting ways? Looks to me like the latter. I guess we would then come back to the previous way those two indexes used to behave, what would not be, on the long term, too bad: The SP-TSX is so much heavily weighted on natural resources, it could go up and down a lot. Crude oil might have touched a bottom on Dec. 5 at close to $43.00, but IMHO, short term. Same with gold, that is so volatile I wouldn't bet on this one. Cupper is far from showing an upward trend But some stocks not linked to natural resources are doing pretty well. The "crisis" is moving up from the south to the north, so (to reply to a question you asked DCA in another post), it might still take a while until the DOWN signal is lifted. So if I agree to some extend to your statement, as for the DOW, I am not sure at all if it building an long term upward trend. I think we'll have to consider sector by sector, from now on. And not forget about the NASDAC that seems to do much better then the DOW. The behaviour of the NASDAC could influence some sectors in the canadian markets. Louise Title: Re: PREDICTIONS Post by: bryanmcn on December 14, 2008, 03:52:09 PM Hi Louis
Any stocks you think look good? Title: Re: PREDICTIONS Post by: garilou on December 14, 2008, 04:53:23 PM Bryan, I think I have already answered that in your Topic:Good Looking Charts? (« Reply #2 on: 09 December 2008, 02:18:29 ») Did you not see it? But, since then... we are not out of the woods... and I am still shorting ;) . Louise Title: Re: PREDICTIONS Post by: garilou on December 14, 2008, 05:13:48 PM Just read from a (technical) analyst: "...There has been a small rally out of the November lows, but volume has been weak. Deeply oversold readings have so far failed to deliver a rally of the strength and duration we would normally expect, and, with internals now becoming overbought, time is running out. The problem, I suspect, is that the only buyers are nervous short sellers. Once the shorts have covered, new buyers needed to continue the rally fail to materialize because nobody wants to buy this market." (Underlined by me) I must admit that I am one of those "short sellers" that are a little more nervous then a month ago ;) Louise Title: Re: PREDICTIONS Post by: bryanmcn on December 14, 2008, 09:35:17 PM Hi Louis
Well... he IS right about the volume but I look at the chart of the DOW and definately see a short term upward trend. I think that anyone who has thought of selling has sold and anyone who is shorting is covering or about to cover. That means that there is no one left in the market but buyers. Like me ... Title: Re: PREDICTIONS Post by: garilou on December 15, 2008, 12:17:03 AM Hi again Bryan, Yes! He IS right about the volume: and a rally on a small volume is NOT a good sign. Quote That means that there is no one left in the market but buyers. This is your conclusion... you might forget about the day traders! But I tell you, it is no more a matter of "market", it's a matter of sector: some might be profiting from the general state. I'll stop looking to the DOW or the TSX alone, but compare the behaviour of some sectors, then of some specific stocks, to the general trends of the main indexes. Anyway, I'll wait till lots of people become "Buyers"... like you. ;) I am NOT a bottom fisher! Neither when I buy, or when I short (in which case I would say a "sky scraper" :D.) Louise. PS: I think that the activity on this forum could also be a good predictor: the volume has increased a lot in the past days ;) Title: Re: PREDICTIONS Post by: bryanmcn on January 01, 2009, 09:45:33 PM Nice Christmas rally. The DOW should move up now that the US year end selling is over. Canadian year end selling was over on Dec 24th and oil prices rebounded so we saw a stronger rally.
Lots of good charts forming. Could be a nice January! Louis - have you covered your shorts? Title: Re: PREDICTIONS Post by: garilou on January 01, 2009, 11:07:42 PM Hi Bryan!
Quote Nice Christmas rally. Yep, again I was pretty wrong on my predictions! Nice from you to think about my shorts! I was stopped out 2 of them, (will for one a big loss, the other not too big), a 3rd one I covered after loosing 90% of the paper profit I had. But I am still short on one that really did not try to follow the up trend, and kept falling every up day. But on this one, I have a stop that will prevent me from loosing too much of my already comfortable gain. Remember when I told you I was thinking of buying WN, well I am happy I did not! Then I wanted to short it... and just got prudent and did not. I guess I should start to share everyone's enthusiasm, I look through all the stocks that I watched waiting for the Timing Level to turn green, and... I am not yet convinced. I often said that I am neither a "bottom fisher", not a "skyscraper". I do not know if my eyes are covered by a deforming lens, but I keep seeing short candidates everywhere! And many are exactly those that did well during the DOWN trend: people are remodelling the portfolios.. I guess I will be at cash for a few days, till my eyes adapt to the new light Have a good 2009 New Year, and not just on the investing side of it! Louise Title: Re: PREDICTIONS Post by: bryanmcn on January 03, 2009, 04:39:40 PM Jan 3, 2009
I think there is an excellent opportunities for traders who have been sitting on the sidelines. We are seeing a definite rise off the bottom on both the TSX and the DOW and while there is some risk, most of the sellers are gone. Its a buyers market and there's lots of great potential out there. The market is a leading indicator of the economy and most analysts are predicting a bottom to the economy sometime in mid to late 2009 so that means the markets should do well this year. Title: Re: PREDICTIONS Post by: garilou on January 04, 2009, 03:41:39 AM Hi Bryan, I hope you are right! I agree that if this movement goes on for a while, the economy should go better in 6 to 8 months, the markets are always in advance. On the other hand, so many stocks were way too low, and once they have recovered there proper value, if the economy does NOT improve, the markets could plunge again, probably not as low as they were, but still. Now, I am full at cash, (apart from my fixed income investments), I have covered all my shorts, and I feel somewhat tired from the markets. Or simply tired. I'm sure I'll jump back in soon. Still not sure in which way though. For the moment, I'll try to take care a little bit more of my horse, and ride him more often, as I used to do before my husband died. An just keep an eye on my "baskets"... But as I could see the way my last shorts went... there are certainly good buy opportunities out there! But which? You say: Quote I think there is an excellent opportunities for traders who have been sitting on the sidelines. May I ask what you've been trading lately? Any way, you said the good word: it's more a matter of trading then "investing", I doubt there will be lots of long term opportunities. I am not convinced yet that the stocks that were in SSP portfolios during the DOWN Market timing will stay good opportunities, as the signal turns to UP. DCA had just bought some FFH, and right away it receives a sell order from SSP. I was not too surprised. Louise Title: Re: PREDICTIONS Post by: DCA on January 04, 2009, 12:10:55 PM I don't think I share fully Bryan's optimisim. I expect there is more "shoes" to drop. The CC still have not reported all their bad news.
Not suprised by the sell on FFH, but then I did make a small profit on it. Thought it might have had a bit of 'legs" left and unlike WPK it was possible to get in. On the other hand I have pulled in 45% so far this month with CSH.UN and it pays a handsome dividend to boot. (I have to check to see if SSP is picking up on this one.) D Title: Re: PREDICTIONS Post by: bryanmcn on January 04, 2009, 03:15:56 PM The SSP weekly portfolio looks fine. I also own CM. I'll be on a buying spree this week or next.
Title: Re: PREDICTIONS Post by: garilou on January 04, 2009, 04:24:36 PM I used to joke, saying something like Bryan's nick name should be "BullBryan", and mine, "BearLou". Another thing that makes me stay out of the market for some time still, is that the enthusiasm from the past 7 or 8 trading days is not enough to call it a "buyers" market. The more the indexes went up, the lower the volumes. As a matter of fact, most 20 days MA volumes have kept going down, and the stocks that did so well also had Volumes 20 days MA going down, and the more they went up, the lower the daily volumes (as % compared to the Vol.MA. ) This does is no good sign. I've been following (in what I call "my basket") stocks pretty representative form the TSC, the DOW and the Nasdac. Although the Nasdac was a little bit late to follow the turn around, it did. But with almost no exception, (or maybe for one, and this was only one day), the 20 days Vol MAs not only went steadily down, (even on the days where the index gains were in the "triple digits") but the actual daily volumes were only fractions of those moving averages. I think many TA investors pay too much attention to the price trend, and to all indicators linked to it, and too little to the volume evolution. Sure I got stopped out from most of my shorts, because there is only one way to put a stop order: on the price. Ideally, I would like to put a stop based on the volume :-) (One can always day dream ;) ) I would like to be able to give this type of order: buy on stop (in the case of a short) if the volume reaches that level or the opposite if I am long. An up trend will falling volumes is not a lasting up trend. Anyone agrees with me? Louise |