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Title: TSX predictions Post by: garilou on August 14, 2008, 01:45:09 AM Some where else (long ago) brianmcn started a Topic about predictions for the DOW. New replies came yesterday. What about the TSX, since we are on SSP forum, and SSP for trades only TSX stocks. Yesterday (August 13th), the TSX finished 13375.50 + 210.22 up 1.5%! This poll is open for the next 15 days, and you are allowed to change your choice during that time. So what are your predictions for the TSX? Just for fun, we trust SSP better ;) Title: Re: TSX predictions Post by: Super Stock Picker on August 18, 2008, 11:12:01 PM UP!
Let's give this post a bit more visibility ;) Title: Re: TSX predictions Post by: garilou on August 19, 2008, 01:22:22 AM Yes! thanks SSP. But how? Did I put the poll it in the wrong forum? It has been read at least 50 times (excluding the few times I went back to see the results)... Have you voted, SSP? We are now down 2% since that last high! (sorry in the initial message I had made a decimal error, it was not 133755, but 13375.50, I have corrected it since.) But still... I chose the options that people are allowed to change their vote. Louise Title: Re: TSX predictions Post by: Super Stock Picker on August 19, 2008, 10:39:36 AM Well,when a reply is posted in this thread, it gets to the homepage as one of the last 6 messages on the forum. So, it gets more reads then.
And, yes, we have already voted, and it was not the more optimistic vote ;) Title: Re: TSX predictions Post by: garilou on August 19, 2008, 01:01:47 PM Got it, SSP ;) Today, commodities that influence the TSX seem to move upwards slightly Could that be a reversal for the TSX? Come on every one, don't be afraid to make your predictions, it's just a game! And until Augusts 29th, you still have the option to change your mind Title: Re: TSX predictions Post by: Super Stock Picker on August 25, 2008, 04:28:47 PM Up again!
Title: Re: TSX predictions Post by: garilou on August 26, 2008, 12:57:43 AM And down again ;) I smile because I have a few shorts still uncovered! But for those who can't short >:( Title: Re: TSX predictions Post by: garilou on August 26, 2008, 01:32:52 AM Replying to my-self ;) I think today was one a of the very few days in the past weeks, if not months, when both US indexes and Canadian went in the same direction: I think we are getting in a real long term bear market, Too bad, although I have check in the poll the possibility for people to correct their answers, it seems that I cannot... Only 3 days left to vote . I have tried to extend the time, using the "edit poll", but the option to extend does not exist. Have you ever though about creating a new SSP portfolio... for shorts? Well, your sell orders are often a good "short order"! I thank you so much for that! Saves a lot a research time ;) Louise PS: Wow! I have become a hero with my last post! I did not know how our ranking were established. Title: Re: TSX predictions Post by: Super Stock Picker on August 26, 2008, 10:28:03 AM Yes, we have in mind to propose a portfolio with shorts, but it will not be in the very short term.
And Hero Status come after 100 posts.That could change in the future depending on how many posts the forum gets. It is a way to indicate to new comers who has been here for a very long time... Title: Re: TSX predictions Post by: garilou on September 15, 2008, 11:55:19 PM After app. one month, the very bearish seem to have won! Today's close: 12254.03 => -8.4%!!! Have we touched a bottom? Could be! Still 2 months to go ... Title: Re: TSX predictions Post by: bryanmcn on September 19, 2008, 06:49:45 AM garilou
Are you still able to short? Title: Re: TSX predictions Post by: garilou on September 19, 2008, 03:44:05 PM Bryan, Are you being sarcastic there? After closing my short on WTN 2 days ago with the biggest % gain I've ever made (86% in 10 days app..) (well I had made a pretty good one on IMN too, but in 3 "shots") I shorted another one yesterday that all predictions gave as soooooooo bearish, with terrible fundamentals! Since I could not be there are the opening this morning, I put a stop before I left, but outside the opening hours, you never have the real bid and ask, that are much lower versus much higher, and you can't put a stop lower then the "presumed" ask price, so I put it about 2$ higher then I would have liked to. When I came back home, I could see that the stock has jumped so much and so fast that my position was stopped about 2$ higher then my already too high stop limit! So in 24 hours I lost about 60% of my gain on MTN! >:( My only consolation is that without this stop, I'd be loosing still more, I who usually hate stops, except when I am well installed in a good gain: it's now another $2.00 higher then the price I got stopped to! But still, since last January, my track record is still much better on shorts then longs! So now, I'm "stocked" with almost nothing left in my portfolios, like you were when you stepped out at the beginning of the summer You made 2 pretty good days with your FEL! hope for you that it lasts. Do you think that the past 2 days are showing a new trend, or are they only a "bullish engulfing"? Since I am pessimistic by nature, my feel is that it won't hold long. But in "short", after a long reply, no , I'll stay away from the shorts for a few days, until I find the right candidate: probably the same that took my WTN profit away! Louise Title: Re: TSX predictions Post by: garilou on September 19, 2008, 04:06:03 PM Just read:
Market rally due to short-selling ban. Eric Sprott thinks most of the massive rally in world equity markets is due to temporary bans on short sales of financial services stocks already imposed by U.S. and European regulators. I suspect most of today's rally is because of the change in the short-sale rule, the hedge fund manager said Friday in a telephone interview. Canada's key market regulator continued to deliberate whether to follow the lead of Britain's Financial Services Authority, the U.S. Securities & Exchange Commission and other regulators. You can see what stocks went up the most: they're financial stocks, said Mr. Sprott, who heads Sprott Asset Management Inc. in Toronto, acknowledging that his firm has had to take a bit of a hit here. <Snip======Snip> However, the temporary bans have forced practitioners back into the market to cover their positions by buying up the stocks they have sold, thus driving up the prices demand for those shares. So... it might be a short term joy fire... Louise Title: Re: TSX predictions Post by: bryanmcn on September 19, 2008, 08:01:42 PM I thought that you may have been forced to cover your shorts if you had been shorting US stocks.
I got out of FEL and MKX earlier in the week. Only hold FSY and ATA now. Title: Re: TSX predictions Post by: garilou on September 20, 2008, 01:05:49 AM Once again we are in the wrong topic... but anyway! FSY and ATA! Were kind to you! You wrote some time ago: Quote I follow the Weekly and V1 <snip===> I try to hold those stocks unless they are obviously in a downtrend (which they were all summer). Even if you sometime do not wait for sell orders, in general do you also follow the allocation rules or do you buy freely the amounts of shares you feel you want to buy? Louise Title: Re: TSX predictions Post by: bryanmcn on September 20, 2008, 04:12:40 PM The latter
I don't follow SSP's allocation rules. Much to risky a strategy for me. I hold less shares of picks with more volatility and try to predict their next moves using T.A. Not easy in these crazy markets! I can't figure out why the SSP algorithm would indicate a sell for FSY. HYG I can see but why sell a stock with such obvious strong upward momentum? Bryan Title: Re: TSX predictions Post by: garilou on September 20, 2008, 05:35:46 PM He Bryan, still trying to second guess SSP?
Quote I don't follow SSP's allocation rules. <=snip=> I ... try to predict their next moves using T.A. That is your choice, but SSP's automated decisions provide buy/sell orders for those who do follow them! And the more I study it, the more it seems to make sense. (Which does not mean that I shall never be tempted to do exactly like you) Quote I can't figure out why the SSP algorithm would indicate a sell for FSY. <=snip=> why sell a stock with such obvious strong upward! I guess SSP should answer to that! At first sight, I would tend to agree with you, but remember this is in the weekly momentum! On the short term (few days), it might still go up, but on a weekly basis, (see attached graph), it shows big signs of being overbought! If it to go up for another few days, you might see a big profit taking! This seems the only explanation for me, because we've seen other SSP stocks go down a lot before they received a sell order! But the Price Momentum Weekly is as to say "the first on the line", for new stocks. If SSP finds more promising stocks in its "secret recipe", they might want take their profit, maybe ahead of those who look their T.A.s on a daily basis and in the same move, make room for the new stocks, for those who do follow the allocations rules: remember: the portfolio should theoretically always be fully invested, and it's a "closed start capital". Even if it was not, not everyone is rich enough to buy and hold every stock. Maybe in a few days, it will be my turn to be sarcastic with you ;) . You can read in their study (page 2) (http://www.superstockpicker.com/ultimate_price_momentum_series_study_part_2.html) What is clear after this study is that if you want to copy the orders of one of our portfolios, then do not choose the Price Momentum Weekly, it is now obsolete SSP, does this make sense? Louise |