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Title: SSP during a drawdown Post by: bryanmcn on July 09, 2008, 01:22:29 PM I'm posting this more for future reference. RIght now July 9, 2008 the SSP V1 has posted a 1 month return of -27%, 3 month return of -5.4%, 6 month return of -.8% and a one year return of -19.5%.(All negative)
SSP is very volitile. When its performance is good its very good and this board raves and applauds, but when its bad, like now it is VERY bad and the board goes quiet. Now it's summer so that may be another reason for less postings. These results can change dramatically from one month to the next. By this time in September 08 I predict that the numbers will be all positive. I am completely in cash and was lucky to get out at the top. I would like to see the V1 index get down to 750. That would be a great buying op and I might even cut my trading vacation short to enter into a few positions. Care to add your prediction? Title: Re: SSP during a drawdown Post by: wm on July 17, 2008, 02:44:01 PM high returns are synonym with high volatility. Great for you if you got out at the top but, if this is true, it should be pure luck and I am sure you don't match the upside returns if you are trying to pick tops and bottoms. My exit strategy get me out anywhere from -20% to -30% from the top, I never sell at top but I am almost sure the get all the uptrend...
Title: Re: SSP during a drawdown Post by: bryanmcn on August 29, 2008, 11:52:59 AM As a reference we are now Aug 29, 2008 and the SSP has not had a good summer.
The weekly is down 29% in the past 3 months and the V1 is down over 31%. For the year - Weekly is down 25% and the V1 is down 32%. From its high in June the V1 has suffered a 48% drawdown. Man! How did you guys weather this storm? I had hoped that the V1 would get below 750. It did that last week and I predict that it is at its low. So it looks like a GREAT time to get in! The TSX has made a higher low and is now making a higher high. That is the definition of a bull trend. I am back in after being in (US) cash all summer. Bought RNO at $6.40, VRK at $.90 and MOX at $2.36 Also picked up some BNK, ERF.un and Pwt.un today. (Does anyone else watch the old SSP picks?) Bryan Title: Re: SSP during a drawdown Post by: garilou on August 30, 2008, 12:40:33 AM Wow, bryannec
This is an optimistic post! Quote Does anyone else watch the old SSP picks? I sure do! I've been mostly doing shorts during the summer, (both US and CND) and yes, the old picks from SSP are a fantastic source of CND stocks to short! I just shorted WTN! After I made great with 3 shortings on INM (I shorted also others that were not on SSP previous positions got only 6 voters :-[) Quote I am back in after being in (US) cash all summer. What I do not understand, when you told me you could not short, because all your money was in your RSSP: Do you trade US in your RSSP? I've done it twice, but the exchange rates were killing me! I've stopped that. But if you have a separate US account (I mean apart from your RRSP) you could short. My US money is in a separate account, apart from my RSSP, I have a Canadian trading account that is almost always empty, but I use the US account balance and margin to short in CND. As soon as the profits from the shorts are transferred in my CND account, I transfer the money to my bank account: this is my "end of the month rounding up"... I paid all the repairs and works on my house and garden with those shorts. Did you make your predictions in my poll: http://www.superstockpicker.com/forum/index.php?topic=666 ? (Too bad, it closed to-night August 29 ) Have a good new trading season! Louise Title: Re: SSP during a drawdown Post by: bryanmcn on August 30, 2008, 08:14:50 AM TD Waterhouse allows me to buy a "US Money Market Fund" inside my RSP. Same as holding US cash (with a bit of interest). They also allow me to trade US stocks and "Wash the trade" ie- avoid the currency conversion bank costs by using the US Money Market Fund.
Title: Re: SSP during a drawdown Post by: bryanmcn on September 10, 2008, 06:13:31 AM So I couldn't have been more wrong about the market direction. The markets reversed and have now created a new low. I am again back in cash, licking my wounds and ready to fight another day.
Title: Re: SSP during a drawdown Post by: bryanmcn on September 10, 2008, 12:01:43 PM As of Sept 9, 2008
Looking at some performance numbers. The V1 was at 1084 on Oct 10, 2007. This means that it needs to rise by 68% from where it is now to Oct 10, 2008 to post a 0% yearly gain. This is a mighty tall task. It could be done ... but it better start happening soon! I've been following the SSP portfolios for a couple of years and have never seen it go through this much of a draw down. How are we all faring? Title: Re: SSP during a drawdown Post by: DCA on September 10, 2008, 06:05:41 PM Ever watch Ice Age? Do you know those shorts of Scratchy chasing the elusice acorn?
You know the one where he pluments of the cliff, slides down the scree slope on his but, is flung into the icthyosaur infested pool.... Yep, I can relate. D Title: Re: SSP during a drawdown Post by: bryanmcn on September 12, 2008, 08:58:01 AM I searched through dozens of stock charts and found a couple that look like they have some positive momentum dispite the dropping markets. Looking only at the charts I picked FSY and BPO (both on the TSX)
Does anyone else own these? Title: Re: SSP during a drawdown Post by: Super Stock Picker on September 12, 2008, 09:31:04 AM FYI, FSY is currently one of the stocks in the Price Momentum Monthly portfolio.
Title: Re: SSP during a drawdown Post by: Victor on September 12, 2008, 10:48:51 AM Bryan, given the sells and the fact that HYG and MOX hit my stops... I'm out, for now. I had promised a "year with SSP" review, and I hope to post it sometime soon. It's just been crazy busy since summer came to an end (at least in the west!).
Cheers, Victor Title: Re: SSP during a drawdown Post by: bryanmcn on September 12, 2008, 11:32:02 AM I am also in Fel.to at $12.20
Title: Re: SSP during a drawdown Post by: garilou on September 12, 2008, 10:36:26 PM Hi Bryan, Would be so kind and explain how you came to make this choice of FEL? I've looked at it, and was not too sure. Victor, I understand that you may be so busy, but I am really impatient to read your "year with SSP" ! Wish you both a "Happy new Trading Year" ;) Louise Title: Re: SSP during a drawdown Post by: Super Stock Picker on September 12, 2008, 10:56:48 PM Louise,
FEL is one of the stock currently in the Price Momentum Weekly portfolio. Title: Re: SSP during a drawdown Post by: garilou on September 13, 2008, 12:13:35 AM Oups! Missed that one.... Sorry! Louise Title: Re: SSP during a drawdown Post by: bryanmcn on September 14, 2008, 07:20:55 PM Hi Louise
Fel has been flat or slightly bullish in an extremely bearish market. IMHO the markets cannot keep this downward momentum forever. The TSX is flirting with the same lows it made in Jan of this year. If it turns around it could rise dramatically and stocks like FEL that have held their ground will advance more rapidly. Or so my thinking goes. We shall see ... Title: Re: SSP during a drawdown Post by: garilou on September 15, 2008, 03:11:20 AM Hy Brian! I asked you that question because I had not seen that it was an order from SSP! From the moment you decided to "jump back in", I guess I do not have to ask you to explain your choice. But probably no one should obey SSP's orders blindly. So thanks anyway for you explanation. As to the TSX, I do not yet see clear bullish trend, I am still more on shorting then buying! But I am really getting prepared to jump in too! Do you follow one specific SSP portfolio, or do you just choose among the different buy orders that you see? Louise Title: Re: SSP during a drawdown Post by: bryanmcn on September 15, 2008, 08:36:49 AM Louise
I follow the Weekly and V1. I try to hold those stocks unless they are obviously in a downtrend (which they were all summer). I often hold on to a stock for a while after it has been sold by SSP depending on the pattern. A search through old SSP picks can be rewarding as well. SSP seems to hold on to a stock even as it drifts lower because it is outperforming the TSX. To me thats like saying "that horse is less dead than this one". Of course SSP must stay 100% invested and do not presently short so in a down market the portfolios suffer. I agree with you that the TSX still has strong downward momentum but there are some sectors that seem to be bucking the trend. For example, Canadian bank stocks seem to be reversing. Title: Re: SSP during a drawdown Post by: garilou on September 15, 2008, 11:49:24 AM Hi again, Brian
Quote To me thats like saying "that horse is less dead than this one". This is funny! As what you say about SSP: Quote SSP seems to hold on to a stock even as it drifts lower because it is outperforming the TSX. I have never read that this was part of the "secret recipe" of what would trigger a buy or sell order from SSP. But like you, when I'll jump in, I will probably not hold loosing stocks too long if this means to loose a good part of a profit or too big a loss). As for the TSX... still another down day today. For the Canadian banks, you might be right, but it does not seem very clear yet, especially today! The prediction that the financial sector would go up when the Oil price would go down seemed to confirm it-self for a few days, but the oil is still going down, and the financial sector does not seem to react proportionally positively. They seem to try, but never get to break their resistances. After I shorted TD a few weeks ago, and got our just in time to cash a not too fantastic profit, but right before an upward movement (at first I thought I had covered to early, but I was happy to have done so the 2nd day). I am thinking about shorting it again today or tomorrow if today's fall seems to confirm. By now, the price is still higher as the one I had when I covered, but I thought this was a short term up trend. As for now, I think the only sectors that could be promising in the markets would be telecommunications and "Consumer Staples": Jean Coutu could well being coming out of its terrible performance from past 3 years. All this again IMHO. Louise Title: Re: SSP during a drawdown Post by: garilou on September 15, 2008, 11:22:25 PM Bryan! I checked FEL all day, and thought about you (and probably others)! Must have been hard to hold! An energy stock in days like now. And no dividends to compensate... But I think in an intermediate term, it will go back up. I'll probably join you with this stock, but not before it will be around 10 or less. I guess it was a hard day for most today. I had 2 other stocks that went up almost all day, and fell back down in the last trading minutes :( I was only saved by my short on WTN! I have lowered my stop for the third time! From now on, I really don't mind to be stopped out on this one. Thanks SSP! Good luck for the next days... some time the wind should turn... Louise Title: Re: SSP during a drawdown Post by: DCA on September 21, 2008, 11:09:13 AM Well we have speculated at times as to whether cash is a posistion. It looks like as of Monday close cash is.
'Tis a bit like that Bugs Bunny cartoon where the plane runs out of gas just before smashing into the ground. DCA Title: Re: SSP during a drawdown Post by: garilou on September 21, 2008, 01:02:05 PM Hi DCA,
Quote Well we have speculated at times as to whether cash is a position. Yes I remember, and I used to say "NO! cash is not a position, you are either long or short!" But after winning so much on my WTN short, I lost about 60% of my profit in 24 hours on another short that was made on the most bearish stock you could think about, both fundamentally and technically! So by now, me too am also mostly on the cash side, or sometimes I start to play the "Day Trader": Buy and sell the same day or the next day. But this mean constant checking. having your sell order button right under you finger, and re-asking for the RT quote every 2 seconds: some days I can, some other days, no: this a really a full time job! you wrote: Quote It looks like as of Monday close cash is. I also believe that the past 2 market days were totally crazy, and just a "bullish engulfing": however big money the US government will spend to save Wall Street (did nothing to help the poor people who were loosing everything on their houses), it wont change much on the short and middle term: I suspect this Monday (or coming week) will be the days of "profit cashing" for the day traders, and will be a dark day too! Save the world economy? How generous! ;) Just save the rich people! And sell the US economy to the Chinese. Putting a ban on the short shelling is in my opinion really not even a band-aid: if buyers are not there, the stock goes down anyway! Sure the mere threat of it forced the shorters to cover, and this has been a big part of those "three digits" up-days, but it won't last! I'll look at it, and maybe re-short that stock that hurt me so much! All summer long, everyday I had a small gain only thanks to my short positions. Can't wait the "short portfolio" that SSP is preparing, but they said it won't be ready in the near term. However bullish the market was, I've always done better on the short then the long positions. But now... yes looks like a Bugs Bunny cartoon! Louise Title: Re: SSP during a drawdown Post by: bryanmcn on September 21, 2008, 01:03:00 PM Indeed! Cash appears to be a position for several portflios!
At end of trading day Monday the V3, V4, and V5 will all be without positions. That will stop the downward momentum for sure. Ha ha! Title: Re: SSP during a drawdown Post by: garilou on September 21, 2008, 03:19:59 PM Bryan!
Quote That will stop the downward momentum for sure. Bryan, you miscalculated! All SSP followers selling SSP portfios stocks will create a HUGE (lol) selling pressure and will increase the downward momentum! HA HA HA! Title: Re: SSP during a drawdown Post by: bryanmcn on September 21, 2008, 03:46:17 PM What I meant was that the SSP portfilios downward momentum will stop.
Title: Re: SSP during a drawdown Post by: garilou on September 21, 2008, 04:36:14 PM Ah OK :-) But Brian, you did not comment my reply to you, in TSX Predictions (sure was the wrong topic but...): http://www.superstockpicker.com/forum/index.php?topic=666 (http://www.superstockpicker.com/forum/index.php?topic=666) I'm curious. SSP won't reply, (if he does) before Monday. Title: Re: SSP during a drawdown Post by: bryanmcn on September 21, 2008, 05:39:05 PM I participated in the poll. I chose "I wish I knew".
My crystal ball is broken right now. No idea. The trends are down but my hopes are up. :) Bryan Title: Re: SSP during a drawdown Post by: garilou on September 21, 2008, 05:49:09 PM No,Bryan, that's not was I talking about! (See what happens when we use the wrong topics!) I was talking of my reply: « Reply #16 on: Yesterday at 17:35:46 » in http://www.superstockpicker.com/forum/index.php?topic=620 to your reply: « Reply #15 on: Yesterday at 16:12:40 » where you talked about the sell of SPY Louise Title: Re: SSP during a drawdown Post by: bryanmcn on September 22, 2008, 07:51:18 AM Sorry Louise
I've searched through the posts and can't find where I talked about selling SPY. Can you repeat the question? Bryan Title: Re: SSP during a drawdown Post by: garilou on September 22, 2008, 09:30:32 AM Bryan,
Sorry. I made a bad typo. It was not SPY, it was about FSY. In topic: Re: TSX predictions http://www.superstockpicker.com/forum/index.php?topic=666 your reply: « Reply #15 on: 20 September 2008, 16:12:40 » You wrote: Quote I can't figure out why the SSP algorithm would indicate a sell for FSY. This is the message I was talking about. Since I worked hard on my reply (doing research and trying to find out maybe why), added a technical chart. I would have liked to have feedback. Louise Title: Re: SSP during a drawdown Post by: Super Stock Picker on September 22, 2008, 10:38:12 AM Hello,
Quote I can't figure out why the SSP algorithm would indicate a sell for FSY. Regarding your question, this sell has been triggered because FSY has lost its analyst recommendation in our database. We do not give a lot of credit to analysts opinions but we use this recommendation as a first level filter to remove too small companies and to avoid those that are poorly considered by analysts.That's a consequence of being systematic. The trend is obviously still there, especially given the current market conditions. But as one of our criteria is not meet anymore, we sell the stock. Title: Re: SSP during a drawdown Post by: garilou on September 22, 2008, 02:04:28 PM Hello SSP,
I do not know if we may ask from where you feed your analysts ratings database. I searched a lot: all I could find for FSY was on Globe investor: Brokers ratings this stock: 0 (so no rating) 5 stars rating: * * * * * And (Sept.18) on my trading web site: Forsys Metals Started At Buy, C$6.75 By Laurentian All other sites are paying... Thanks, Louise Title: Re: SSP during a drawdown Post by: bryanmcn on September 22, 2008, 04:05:02 PM Aaaaah.
Veeeery interesting ... Thank you SSP. I have sold FSY. Bryan Title: Re: SSP during a drawdown Post by: Super Stock Picker on September 25, 2008, 08:42:54 PM I do not know if we may ask from where you feed your analysts ratings database. Hello,Don't know a better free one than GlobeInvestor. It should be the same data as what you can find on zacks.com as well. Title: Re: SSP during a drawdown Post by: bryanmcn on September 25, 2008, 09:08:34 PM FSY keeps running. Remind me not to listen to analysts!
Title: Re: SSP during a drawdown Post by: Super Stock Picker on September 25, 2008, 09:24:31 PM FSY keeps running. Remind me not to listen to analysts! Definitively right not to listen to their opinion.We do take into consideration their coverage as it filters very small or very bad companies. Don't ask why they stop their coverage of FSY... Title: Re: SSP during a drawdown Post by: bryanmcn on September 27, 2008, 07:34:39 AM As painful as this is, it is time for another update. I post these stats for reference purposes to convey to future SSP holders that as great the returns are things are good, the SSP can experience sever drawdowns. In my opinion it is unwise to "blindly" follow any stock picking strategy regardless of its amazing returns. PAst results are not a guarantee of future returns.
Sept 27th The V1 has a one year return of -50%, YTD -60%, 6 months -46% and 3 month -63%. Yes those are all negative and no the V1 is not the worst performing portfolio. The V3, 4 and 5 are presently in cash. Is it too late to start a shorting portfolio? Title: Re: SSP during a drawdown Post by: bryanmcn on September 27, 2008, 09:03:07 AM Does anyone out there follow the VIX?
Symbol is $VIX and it is a "fear" measure. Traders will often use it as a contrarian indicator. When it is at its highest it usually indicates that markets will soon be rebounding from lows. In the past decade, the VIX traded above 40 four times: During the Russian debt crises in 1998, after 9/11, during the market downturn of 2002 and Last week when it hit 42. Title: Re: SSP during a drawdown Post by: garilou on September 27, 2008, 12:47:11 PM This information about the $VIX is very interesting. Yes I looked at it once in a while since I discovered it while doing research on volatility. But I did not know that it was used as an indicator. During the past week, it seems to have found a resistance around 36 though. But a predictor? If you look at a compared chart (http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EVIX#chart7:symbol=^vix;range=6m;compare=^dji;indicator=bollinger+sma(50,200)+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined) between the $VIX et the $DJI, you just find that they are a reversed mirror from each other...What does this predict? Yesterday I found an article (http://www.thestreet.com/story/10439612/1/technical-outlook-best-buy-caterpillar.html?puc=_htmlatb) about 3 stocks that can be used as predictors. They would be: 1. Cummins (CMI), (would be an indicator of growth rates) 2. Best Buy (BBY) (indicator of consumer mood) 3. Caterpillar (CAT) (indicator of worldwide growth) Really, it seems that (like you when you said your crystal ball was broken), every one seems to be looking for a crystal ball that would predict the future... That is why so many people have developed oscillators. On that I like is that Aroon from StockCharts: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p32782019790 Who would have predicted what happened to RIM yesterday? A few months ago I posted on another forum that I thought RIM would be soon down to &90.00... (admittedly with the help of stockcharts.com P&F predictions) and the person thought I was crazy (did not use that word), it was impossible. Last week it was pretty close to it, but I would never have expected a one day drop like what happened yesterday. If I had not shorted it, it was because it was to expensive in that time, and I did not have enough margin. But if I had... maybe I would have taken my profit last week when it showed signs of changing trend, and missed that yesterday's drop. The truth is that there is NO crystal ball! The closest to it, I think, are the stockcharts.com P&F chart, where your can "back test" At the beginning of June (when the VIX was at 20.24, they already showed it bullish with a 28.6 target. Last week they sent RIM to 147 on the long term, but on the short term to 81.95... Maybe RIM could be a good "bottom fishing" prospect... But even they sometime miss their predictions. Now... at VIX 34.74... they send it (long term) to....88.5!!! Yes, SSP hurry up with your short portfolio ;) Louise Title: Re: SSP during a drawdown Post by: bryanmcn on September 27, 2008, 01:30:38 PM Will those three you found stocks predict market moves?
Since the $VIX and the $DJI are mirror images, when the $VIX reaches its highs it predicts that the Dow has reached its lows. The question is ... Has $VIX really reached its highs? In my opinion ... yes.... for a while. Title: Re: SSP during a drawdown Post by: garilou on September 28, 2008, 12:56:12 AM Quote The question is ... Has $VIX really reached its highs? Yes, that is the question .As I said in my previous post, it seems to have met a resistance. you write: Quote Will those three you found stocks predict market moves? I did not find them, the article was from Mark Manning. But when we look at them compared to the $VIX http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EVIX#chart4:symbol=^vix;range=3m;compare=cat+cmi+bby;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on (http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EVIX#chart4:symbol=^vix;range=3m;compare=cat+cmi+bby;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on) 1. CMI (growth rate indicator) seems to have very weak life signs, and in general, investor bet on growth. 2.CAT (worldwide growth) gives also no sign of recovery... 3.BBY (consumer mood), is the only one to show signs of recovery, but in my opinion, it is not necessarily predicting long term market growth: the "bailout" will just allows banks to be able to provide more credit: if you listened to the presidential debate Friday, it seems that the "American Dream" lies in the ability to buy a new CD player! Because Americans (and Canadians to a lesser extend) buy so much on credit, (and that "bailout" is there only to protect this ability to buy), they might soon be unable to buy anymore, (VISA might also be a good predictor of consumer mood: and it does not seem to have finished it's run down.) http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EVIX#chart1:symbol=^vix;range=3m;compare=v;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on (http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EVIX#chart1:symbol=^vix;range=3m;compare=v;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on) In "long and short," ;) I am way not as optimistic as you, except on a pretty short term basis, but certainly, in the short term, (this has been said over and over), in the moment, the stocks to buy are in consumer goods, and for the moment, as far as betting on stocks, I' ld still be on the "short" side. Louise Title: Re: SSP during a drawdown Post by: Super Stock Picker on October 06, 2008, 09:51:01 PM Hi,
I wanted to share with you today's market analysis done by our partner, JITNEYTRADE, as the main topic is the VIX: Quote Charting the VIX... The configuration of the VIX volatility indicator is showing the S&P just traversed into the twilight zone. We are now at another magnitude. The other markets in the world are all in the same boat. In our Daily Report of 18Sep08 we were mentioning that the recent highs in the VIX are the last chance to contain this correction. Not only did we pass through these levels quite easily but we also went past the 1998 & 2002 levels. The VIX is now in totally uncharted territory when it comes to fear monitoring. We are at levels that par non quantifiable or not comparable to anything in the past. At this stage it is close to impossible to gauge where and when we will see a low in this market. We can only enter we will see a formation of a strong base and this can take time. It is almost futile to talk in terms of support areas or to even try to define them, the momentum gathered to the downside by this market could quickly put any of these levels in play very quickly. We shall wait for the markets to show us the way. For now, the only refuge is GOLD, the physical kind not the stocks of course. All paper assets are being affected by the present conditions. See graph in attached picture Title: Re: SSP during a drawdown Post by: garilou on October 07, 2008, 02:29:15 AM Hi, I heard something similar last Friday from an analyst, that the only refuges were gold (and silver.) Now I don't know how to buy those, unless I' ld start commodities trading. There could be another one. We talked about those somewhere else. Since a few weeks I was following 2 Ishare "stocks", in order to find something that could be both secure for an RRSP and bring a little more then what I had. One was: XCB (CDN Corporate Bond Index Fund), the other one was XGB (iShares CDN Government Bond Index Fund). Then last week, I thought if the markets do not trust the big corporations anymore, they won't trust their Bonds either. I decided to go for the XGB. (http://ca.ishares.com/product_info/fund_overview.do?ticker=XGB (http://ca.ishares.com/product_info/fund_overview.do?ticker=XGB)) I guess I made the right choice: XCB took a bad drop: http://www.stockscores.com/quickreport.asp?ticker=t.XCB while XGN started to move up quite drastically: http://www.stockscores.com/quickreport.asp?ticker=T.XGB Well the charts look more spectacular then they are really, because those have not big $ difference between their highs and lows. When I jumped in I was a little bit afraid, because they had already gone up 7% in the 2 previous days, but I got them last Thursday XGB at 19.90 (was really lucky) and I am now up quite a few % up. The dividend is 0.8814, (the yield goes somewhat down as the shares goes up, but it will probably stay in the range between 3.5 and 3.8%), but I guess it's pretty safe refuge too: it looks like the market still trust Canadian government bonds. I am just mad at me that I did not buy more, I was keeping some cash for when I' ld seriously go with SSP... but I guess it's not the right time yet. As your post showed, the VIX has broken all its resistances, so there is no way to guess how long and how low this bear market will go. So it might not be too late. Louise Title: Re: SSP during a drawdown Post by: bryanmcn on October 07, 2008, 06:26:57 AM I read once about a trader that, during the '87 crash, went down to his bank and physically removed all the gold bullion he had in his safety deposit box. It was so heavy he could barely carry it in his suitcase. He was afraid that his bank was going to fail and might close its doors leaving him without access to his riches. He commented on how crazy his wife and family thought he was when he told them to prepare. He says that few people knew how close the world came to a complete banking collapse.
When fear is at its highest - so is opportunity but ... is the worst yet to come? Title: Re: SSP during a drawdown Post by: DCA on October 09, 2008, 06:34:12 PM I do not know about converting my assets into gold. I have now experience this month (and we are not at the half way point yet) a drop equal to two times my last year's tax return.
I am almost scared to look today and suspect that the best thing to do is to convert my remaining assets into single malts and vintage ports. These are liquid assets that will retain their value. Chicken Little was right. The sky has fallen. Now we just have to collectively deciede whether to jack the ceiling back up or break out the shovels. D Title: Re: SSP during a drawdown Post by: garilou on October 10, 2008, 04:42:12 AM DCA, Just a hint if you want to buy Gold (admittedly on paper): iShares COMEX Gold Trust (IGT:TSX) Recognia technical recommendation: Short term bullish since oct.06, Long term bullish today: (Not cheap: 103.21). Price objective: 120,00 $ - 124,00 $ stockcharts.com is still more optimistic: Price objective: Short term: 128$ Long term: 155$ Louise Title: Re: SSP during a drawdown Post by: bryanmcn on October 16, 2008, 02:59:23 PM Here's a math riddle for all who still hold the V1 portfolio.
Year to date the V1 is down 67%. How much will it have to gain (in percent) to break even by Jan 1, 2009? Title: Re: SSP during a drawdown Post by: garilou on October 16, 2008, 10:45:35 PM Brian, Are you posting this as a joke or are you serious? This is not a "math riddle" In order to calculate this, you would need a constant. One would have to assume that all stocks will stay in the portfolio till Jan 1, 2009 V1 is one or the portfolios where stocks held change most! You should be happy, the 2 portfolios that you "follow" are then only ones in the green! Back to the topic SSP during a drawdown : ;) Maybe the lesson could be: During a drawdown, adopt Price Momentum Weekly and Ultimate Price Momentum v1! Louise Title: Re: SSP during a drawdown Post by: bryanmcn on October 17, 2008, 06:27:13 AM Not a joke. Its a simple calculation. Again ...
What percentage does the V1 have to gain to reverse its losses (be at break even) by Jan 1? The answer reveals my point. Hint: Start with $100 on Jan 1, 2008. Title: Re: SSP during a drawdown Post by: Alena on October 17, 2008, 12:01:47 PM My guess is 303%. Is it correct?
Regards, Alena Title: Re: SSP during a drawdown Post by: bryanmcn on October 17, 2008, 12:15:45 PM Off a bit...
If you had $100 on Jan 1st and lost 67% you would have $33 remaining. To get back to $100 you would need to gain $67 = 67/33 = 203%!!! The V1 has to triple its value by Jan 1 just to reach a year over year break even! My point is that the SSP portfolios draw down way too much to allow the average human trader to recover. Most of us jump on board when the portfolio is too high but when the historical stats are looking great. Then the portfolio corrects and we bail at the bottom. If we are to buy low and sell high we must buy now! A time when the historical stats look awful!! I'm cautiously buying (is it the low?) In WN and FHH today Title: Re: SSP during a drawdown Post by: Alena on October 17, 2008, 03:05:54 PM Sorry, I did not pay proper attention to the quiz!
I was thinking V1 lost 67% but it is down to 67%, so yes, you are right, it should gain 203% to be break even. Thank you for the quiz! Regards, Alena Title: Re: SSP during a drawdown Post by: garilou on October 18, 2008, 04:05:43 AM Alena, I think Bryan really meant V1 lost 67%. (has regained somewhat since) And since he gave its answer... thanks Bryan. Yes, SSP certainly has a problem during a bear market. If you look at the "Since inception" stats http://www.superstockpicker.com/portfolios.php?column=all_time&sort=DESC#perf_table (http://www.superstockpicker.com/portfolios.php?column=all_time&sort=DESC#perf_table) Almost all portfolios made better then the TSX but 2: Earnings Estimate Upgrades Weekly Earnings Estimate Upgrades Monthly (Not surprised any more: these data do not seem to be able to change a stock's momentum) If you just look at the Year to date page: http://www.superstockpicker.com/portfolios.php?column=ytd&sort=DESC#perf_table (http://www.superstockpicker.com/portfolios.php?column=ytd&sort=DESC#perf_table) ALL portfolios did worst then the TSX. But I think most of us got out before, and you Bryan, you did if I remember well. As for WN, not sure if it's the low, but seems it will break out pretty soon. And FFH is way up from it's lows. So if you want to buy low, you must expect some losses at first. "Buy low sell high" is not an absolute truth! It's a dream! Buy not to high, sell not too low... But since WN made it up to UPMv2, it might just depend on the whole of the market. Some good stocks that should be heading up are constantly repressed by the market starting the day sometimes bullish, and finishing down. I got chilly today as IBM (on which I'm short) started well with a small loss at 89.75, and inside a few minutes, jumped at 95.91, which would have been my highest loss on a short. I was paralysed: good paralysis: it ended by finishing with a small loss again (-.74) Now sorry for my personal history: what I want to say, is that investors (or traders what ever one wants to call them) do not trust their stocks anymore and just follow the trend of the whole market, with few exceptions. I am slowly getting back in, I mean long, but prudently too, as my shorts are not all covered yet. I checked one stock that kept it's upward momentum for many days in a row, not too influenced by the DOW ups and downs. That's the one I picked for my first long position of the season. And I do not think we are out of the bear market: after the financial crisis, comes the economic crisis! Then it will be more sector by sector that we'll have to look for opportunities to go long or short. Louise PS: One good thing we must recognize to SSP: they do not hide! A compared to so many sites who just show you their 1000% profits on one or 2 stocks. This is one of the main things that make me trust SSP (which doesn't mean follow blindly), but trust their team. Title: Re: SSP during a drawdown Post by: bryanmcn on April 23, 2009, 07:39:22 AM I'm starting a new topic - "The Future?"
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