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Title: HLB Post by: garilou on June 19, 2008, 01:15:49 PM Hi!
SuperstockPicker recommended HILLSBOROUGH RESOURCES recently in 4 different buy recommendations: 2008-05-20: Price Momentum Weekly 2008-05-26: Ultimate Price Momentum v1 2008-06-02: for 2 portfolios: Price Momentum Monthly and Ultimate Price Momentum v2 2008-06-16 Ultimate Price Momentum v4 I bought it at 1.96 on June 16. Since then it has gone down almost 8%... Some technical sites seem to have opposite predictions: http://www.stockscores.com/quickreport.asp?ticker=T.HLB predict it mainly as bullish on the momentum trend 10, 40, 100 days, the same with their criteria moving average/activity. On the other hand, http://stockcharts.com/, in their P&F charts give it as "bullish price objective "met at 1.38" in their tradition 2 box reversal chart. http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=HLB.TO,PWTGDANRRO[PA!E20,2][D][F1!2!!!2!20]&pref=G or as Bearish in their "traditional 3 box reversal chart: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=HLB.TO,PWTGDANRRO[PA!E20,2][D][F1!3!!!2!20]&pref=G Although I understand that these orders are strictly "decided" by computers, I do not know what to do... usually, one rule is always not to increase your position when the stock goes down. But since we have received no "sell order" from SSP, I wonder: should I buy more now? or take my loss and re position later? Thanks for your insight. Louise Title: Re: HLB Post by: bryanmcn on June 19, 2008, 05:07:18 PM I still hold HBL. Momentum is still upward. Can you see what the next move will be from the chart?
Title: Re: HLB Post by: DCA on June 19, 2008, 07:27:42 PM I too am holding some HLB. Of the three current SSP coal picks this is the one I consider the weakest. However, look at what just happened to WTN. Always hard to predict the future. I will go out on a limb here and state that next week SSP will issue V5 buys on TEC and HLB and no sells on current holdings.
D Title: Re: HLB Post by: bryanmcn on June 19, 2008, 10:06:07 PM HLB had a 30% gain from $1.5 to $2 and appears to be doing the usual 50% retracement to the $1.75 range. It has given us a bearish indicator in todays engulfing dark candle so I would put a mental stop somewhere in the $1.70 range. If it starts to climb Friday or Monday that would be a healthy indicator that $2 + is not far off.
IMHO Title: Re: HLB Post by: garilou on June 19, 2008, 11:55:32 PM Hi bryanmcn, thank for your reply.
You ask: "Can you see what the next move will be from the chart?" Can you? I understand you "mental" stop at 1.70: there seems to be a support between 1.73 and 1.75. You say that you "hold" DCA also says he holds. Usually, for me, a HOLD recommendation is a sell order... But none of you answered my question: would you be confident enough in the charts (and which one?) to increase your position? I usually do not buy all my intended position in one trade: I add when I see the stock's trend. GlobeInvestorGold shows a 5 stars rating and an Analyst Consensus Recommendation: Strong Buy. Salman raised its target from $2.00 to $2.50... But with analysts, I am always soooo skeptical. Since I bought I lost not so much in absolute $, but over 9%, this means it has to increase 18% so that I come back to my original 0$ gain/loss. The fundamentals are hard to find, but not too encouraging, unless I am too impatient. How long do you hold to a position usually? And again, not only for HLB but in general, do agree with the principle of never increasing a position on a downward trend? Thanks again! L. Title: Re: HLB Post by: bryanmcn on June 20, 2008, 06:22:25 AM I personally will not sell HLB unless it has crossed under the $1.70 barrier and remains there near close of trading today. If it reverses and climbs (which could take several days to do) it looks good to hold or buy if you don't own the stock but I personally don't add to positions to average down. That strategy seems to increase risk (see below re position sizing.
You seem to be quite concerned over this position. Is it a large percentage of your portfilio? If so, you might want to consider reading about "position sizing". I have wrote about it several times on this board. It will reduce your risk, help you to diversify and let you sleep at night. Title: Re: HLB Post by: Super Stock Picker on June 20, 2008, 09:01:47 AM Since I bought I lost not so much in absolute $, but over 9%, this means it has to increase 18% so that I come back to my original 0$ gain/loss. If you have lost 9%, you need to gain 9.9% back to come back to your entry point, not 18%. (1 / 0.91 = 1.0989) Title: Re: HLB Post by: DCA on June 20, 2008, 10:38:53 AM I have not increased my posistion in HLB, but I will examine it over the weekend. The market is truly random. If you plot a straight line value on the graph and then analyse the resulting variance you will find that it fits a Markov chain perfectly. What the straight line represents is the 'consensus' opinion of what the true stock value is. The truely diabolical part of the market is that you can draw the 'consensus' line anywhere. That is right -- the 'consensus' is a Markov chain also.
What SSP does is look for stocks where the 'consensus' line has a strong probability of pointing up. What I tend to do is look for fundemantals or future potential that indicates that the 'consensus' line should trend up. The two processes then pick different stocks, but some are picked both ways. My method requires more research and is hard to automate. So sometimes SSP picks a stock I already have, sometimes SSP picks a stock I should have picked, and sometimes SSP picks a stock that I would run away screaming from. HLB actually falls into none of those categories. I hold it because I put in a low bid last week based on it being in SSP and the price dipped down. This week I did not have the spare buying power lying around (I used it on other stocks) so no bid, but I hold right now by virtue of the past historical performance of SSP. (In other words I have no current pick of my own that I can reasonably expect to do as well as SSP). Part of the other reason for holding rather than buying is that this is a coal stock and I already have a wack in GCE and WTN. D Title: Re: HLB Post by: garilou on June 20, 2008, 11:33:29 AM Thank you SuperStockPicker, I guess I made that calculation mentally and too fast.
Thank you also bryanmcn, I have read at least one of your posts on position sizing (I found only one: Position Sizing according to Van K. Tharp). I found very interesting the idea of thinking of the risk on one stock not for it alone but as to the risk it represents on the whole portfolio! I think I will adjust my spreadsheet with this type of calculation! You wrote: "You seem to be quite concerned over this position. Is it a large percentage of your portfolio?" No it is not a big proportion of my portfolio: 1.4%. It is part of my RRSP, where the biggest proportion is invested in safe but not very rewarding things. It is just that it the first time that I "obey" immediately to SSP an recommendation ;) And I talk about it mainly to confirm or infirm ideas that I have. I have read a lot of books, and things on Internet, and I get sometimes confused by contradictory opinions. Averaging down is always a big temptation that I try to avoid. But usually I get out of the position and get back in when I feel it's moving up again (reverse for shorts). Do you think the same thing with stock (like income trust units) that give big dividends, and where the dividend goes up when the price goes down? On the other hand, lots of people will say: look at your stock each day and ask yourself: would I buy it today? If not, then sell! If yes then buy! Why hold? isn't it buy or sell? Well at the moment when I write, the stock went up 1 cent... not regarding if I already own the stock or not, I would be tempted to buy, since - as I already said - my intention was to have a larger position on that stock. And by the way, I've been trading since 1994, before we had the help of Internet, and the stock markets have NEVER prevented me from sleeping at night. As a matter of fact (in that time there were no discount brokers) and it was my own broker who loss sleep when I did risky things, like shorting a gold stock during a period where gold climbed! He even called me during the week-end! Well although the commission was high, I gained on that short! OK, by the time I wrote this, HLB went down 3 cents... Title: Re: HLB Post by: metro on June 20, 2008, 01:28:51 PM wrong thread
Title: Re: HLB Post by: garilou on June 20, 2008, 03:32:45 PM Heu... metro,
How could you sell HLB at $9.70? Assuming it's a typo and you meant $1.70, maybe you mean you gave the order.... just before writing this post à 13:28:51 A few minutes ago, the day's low was still 1.71. As of now (15:22:42) yes there has been a low at 1.70, so I guess this was you ;) Regrets for a 77% gain? I'd be happy with that! Tomorrow, you might be very happy you did!~ I don't think you should ever have regrets, never! This is what prevents people from sleeping ??? Try to find a more promising one at 1.70, and move on! Title: Re: HLB Post by: metro on June 23, 2008, 09:48:58 AM hehehe i am dumb.... I ment to post this in the WTN thread (I had both open...). time to edit...
Title: Re: HLB Post by: garilou on June 25, 2008, 11:22:38 PM Well I got caught on this one. On June 19th, bryanmcn told me to keep a "mental stop" at 1.70... well unfortunately it stayed "mental", I do not like too much stops. Last week it just touched the 1.70 and went back up slightly. Yesterday it closed at 1.70, and my "emotional" took over: once it had crossed the support around 1.73, it was time to take my loss. But anyway, a sell order at 1.70 would not have worked today, it opened a 1.65 and just went down, I wasn't at home today... I'm mad at myself, sometimes I wish I was a computer :-\ Luckily, I never loose sleep with trading, wether I gain or loose, (and not because I am narcoleptic). Gave a sell order goog the few next days, at somewhat higher then today's close, hoping it would rebound a little: TD Sec made 2 huge trades this morning at 1.55 and 1.66, they'll be happy to sell at 1.65... My loss on HLB would be -11%, but way under -0.3% of my RSP portfolio. (I have started thinking in this sense since we talked about Position Sizing according to Van K. Tharp http://www.superstockpicker.com/forum/index.php?topic=400.0 (http://www.superstockpicker.com/forum/index.php?topic=400.0)). Still I hate it because my RSP isn't doing as well as my other portfolios in the moment... Today, I was saved by an improbable upward move in my US portfolio but mainly by my shorts! And I think this will go on for a while. Title: Re: HLB Post by: metro on June 25, 2008, 11:35:47 PM Garilou,
Sam situation here except I came down with a cold. Very bad day for the portfolio, looks like resources took one huge hit today... If I wasnt maxed out on my margin I probably would buy more HLB and TEC in good faith of SSP... Looks like when I second guess SSP I miss out on some good gains but when I dont second guess it I take huge losses. Im down over 20% on HLB... Title: Re: HLB Post by: garilou on June 25, 2008, 11:57:02 PM Sorry, Metro, I do not agree totally. I don't like to let my positions go down more then 10%. Doesnt meen I second guessing SSP, I can always get back on the train a little bit later. I wait and see: I can always change my sell order, but now, I think natural resources have been the main locomotive for the TSX in the past months, and they are due for a correction. My position on HLB was only the half of what I intended to buy, wanted to wait to see the trend... good thing that I did not double my position. I'll do the same thing, and if the trend goes back upward, I'll see. But since I have understood the delay system of SSP, I would not be surprised to see a sell order arrive soon: lots of people will have made a good gain, but I took the train too late... Title: Re: HLB Post by: garilou on June 30, 2008, 03:41:05 PM Today I at last got rid of my HLB position at 1.55 I was wondering if the technical buy order wasn't triggered by short seller who were pushing the stock up while trying to cover their own positions? The stock short positions had been increasing a lot in the past weeks:
Mmmm not easy to insert a table... In a previous post, I had written: "It is just that it the first time that I "obey" immediately to SSP an recommendation" Usually, when I do my homeworks, this is one of the data that I look at. I did not do it on HLB... I guess it will always be possible to jump back in when it looks better. Louise |