"First thing Monday morning I'm going to march
into my boss's office and demand a pay cut so that I'll be in a lower
tax bracket next year."
Of course that's ridiculous, but isn't it about
the same as the financial community's "Conventional Wisdom" (CW) for
year-end tax planning? What about the long-term nature of investing, or
the merits of that investment they felt so strongly about in July? What
are their motivations, and what discipline thought up these strategies
in the first place?
Clearly there are many questions that require
answers, but as investors, it should be crystal clear that the object
of the investment exercise is to make money… just as much as possible,
quickly, legally, and within a low risk environment. The faster it
comes in, the more effectively it can be compounded. Otherwise,
wouldn't the "CW" be to find as many downers as uppers so that there
are no tax consequences? Wouldn't Zero Taxable Gain Investing be the
only "smart" investment strategy? A December, 2004 New York Times Money
Section article actually suggested that Investment Professionals had an
obligation to lose money for clients in order to reduce the tax burden.
Your Financial Professional's perspective may
produce smart tax advice but only professional investors (not
accountants, attorneys, stockbrokers, financial planners, advisors in
general) should be called upon for acceptable investment advice. CPAs
may look smarter if you have a lower tax liability, but many of them go
too far with a calendar year focus that ignores the realities of an
emotional and cyclical investment environment. Take last year's Merck
for example. It has nearly doubled in Market Value since you were told
to sell it last November... who'da thunk it! Why didn't you buy more
(of this and many other high quality losers) instead of selling?
Fortunately, not all professionals are into losing money. In fact, in
nearly thirty years of dealing with hundreds of Accountants and other
advisors, not even a handful have suggested that clients should take
losses on fundamentally sound securities, Equity or Fixed Income. Just
think if you had taken your dot.com profits in '99, purchased the
downtrodden profit making companies of the time, and paid the ugly
taxes. The value companies didn't crash. They've rallied for nearly
seven years!
The key issue in considering a capital loss is
the economic viability of the investment… not your tax situation! A key
element of The Working Capital Model (for investment portfolio
management) is to eliminate the weakest security in a portfolio every
time the Market Value of the portfolio establishes a significantly new
"All Time High" profit level (an ATH). My definitions may be different
than those you are used to: (1) Profit = Total Market Value - Net
Portfolio Investment, (2) A "weak" security is a stock that is no
longer rated Investment Grade by S & P, or no longer traded on the
NYSE, or no longer dividend paying, or no longer profitable. Income
securities whose payout has fallen to way below average (or risen to an
unsustainable level) could also be culled at an ATH. Securities that
have fallen considerably in Market Value for no apparent reason (other
than recent news or changing interest rate expectations) are referred
to lovingly as "Investment Opportunities". This is what you look for
while trying to reinvest your profits… like last year's MRK. By the
way, switching from the strong asset class to the weaker one as a
"hedging strategy" or vice versa (as a greed motivated speculation) is
simply an attempt at "market timing", not a "sophisticated" or "savvy"
adjustment to your asset allocation. Asset Allocation is always a
function of personal factors and never a function of asset class
(Equities and Income Generators) directional speculation.
So what happens if a new portfolio ATH is
achieved in February or August instead of in November or December?
(Note that the financial community only preaches tax loss strategies
during the last calendar quarter.) Should you unload all the weak
issues at the same time, even those purchased just a few months ago?
Management of your portfolio requires the disciplined application of
consistent rules and guidelines, and every manager will develop his or
her own style. But in a high quality, properly diversified, income
generating portfolio, (1) the number of weak issues will generally be
small and (2) the probability of escaping with only a minimal loss very
real. Keep in mind two basic investment axioms: There is no such thing
as a bad profit, regardless of the tax implications; and no matter how
you may rationalize, there's no such thing as a good loss. So, sure, if
a loss should be taken due to an ATH in February, bite the bullet on
the one security (only one) with the declining fundamentals (A Merrill
Lynch/CNN/CFP opinion is not a fundamental.) If there are none, good
job!
Profits are the holy grail of investing. Few
people will admit just how infrequently they have experienced them or,
conversely, just how frequently they have watched them disappear
beneath the waves of a correction. (Like gamblers retuning from Vegas…
no one ever seems to lose!) Similarly, most financial professionals
will counsel their charges to let their profits run, particularly
around year-end. Surely, speaketh the CW prophets, these profits will
hang around until next year, thus deferring those terrible taxes!
(Worked real well at year-end '99, you'll recall.) Don't think for a
moment that anyone knows what will happen this time around the rally
pole, particularly in those ridiculously priced ETFs, which are put
together with the same kind of spit and duct tape used for the
dot.coms. Always take your profits too soon, because you can't get poor
that way!
First thing Monday morning I'm going to: (1)
Call my accountant to tell him that I'm going to help him reduce his
tax burden by not paying him, (2) continue to view the Investment
process in cyclical rather than calendar terms, (3) limit my tax
liability by how I invest, not by taking unnecessary losses, (4)
continue to make as much money as possible, as quickly and safely as
possible, and (5) contact the media, my political representatives, and
anyone else I can think of that will help in the fight to abolish the
taxation of all investment and retirement income.
Steve Selengut
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