It's likely that either curiosity or
skepticism led you to this article, and I would agree that, for most
individual investors, trading is approached in a totally speculative
manner. Stock trading, in its more popular forms (Day Trading, Swing
Trading, Penny Stock Speculating, etc.) includes none of the
elements that a conservative investment strategy would have at its
very core: Little if any attention is given to the fundamental
Quality of the equities selected. Any Diversification that exists in
the portfolio is determined by chance alone and is, at best, a
transient result of the selection guesswork. No attempt whatever is
made to develop an increasing and dependable stream of Income. But
stock trading by individual investors doesn't deserve quite as bad a
"rep" as it has earned. After all, its very foundation is Profit
Taking, probably the most important (and possibly the most often
neglected) of the activities required for successful investment
portfolio management. Unfortunately for most non-professional equity
traders, loss taking is a more common occurrence.
Bond, (and other Income Security) trading is
generally avoided by most non-professional traders. Obviously, it
takes more investment capital to establish positions in Corporate
and Municipal Bonds, Real Estate, or Government Securities than it
does in Equities, and the volatility that traders thrive upon is
just not a standard feature of the mundane world of debt securities.
Surprisingly, most investment advisors and stock brokers have not
discovered that there is a more exciting approach to Income
Investing that is actually safer for investors and less inflexible
in the face of changing interest rate expectation scenarios.
Certainly, Wall Street financial institutions pressure their
representatives to push individual new issues and/or investment
products, but I think that the Market Value fixation that stretches
from Wall Street to Main Street is the real culprit. Income
securities need to be "valued" for long-term income growth and
traded with great pleasure... albeit much less frequently.
Consequently, most trading is done in an
Equity only environment that, by its very nature, is too speculative
for most mature (in whatever sense you choose) investors. But this
is not the way it needs to be. Since stock prices are likely to
remain volatile in the short run and cyclical in the long run, there
will always be opportunities for profit taking. [Note that it is the
combination of volatility, market accessibility, universal equity
ownership, and confiscatory taxation that have made "Buy 'n Hold" a
tar pit Investment strategy.] Similarly, there are no rules against
taking advantage of the cyclical nature of interest rate sensitive
security prices. Trading is the world's oldest form of commercial
activity, and it is unfortunate that it is treated with such
disrespect by our dysfunctional tax code. It is even more
unfortunate that it is looked at askance by client attorneys and
brokerage firm compliance officers... masters of hindsight that they
are.
Trading does not have to be done quickly to
be productive, and it doesn't have to focus on higher risk
securities to be profitable. And perhaps most importantly, it
doesn't have to avoid the interest rate sensitive income securities
that are so important to the long-term success of any true
investment portfolio. No matter how beaten up a speculative day
trader becomes, whatever profit taking experience there has been is
invaluable. Once a trader/speculator is weaned off the gambling
mentality that brought him to the "shock market" in the first place,
he can apply his trading skills to investing and to portfolio
management. The transition from trader/speculator to trader/investor
requires some education... education that cannot be obtained from
product salespersons.
Step One is to gain an appreciation of the
power of Asset Allocation using the principles of The Working
Capital Model. Asset Allocation is the process of dividing the
portfolio into two conceptual "buckets". The first of these will
contain Equity Securities, whose primary purpose is to produce
growth in the form of Realized Capital Gains. The other bucket will
contain various securities whose primary purpose is to produce some
form of regular income... dividends, interest, rents, royalties,
etc. The percentage allocated to each is a function of a short list
of personal facts, concerns, goals, and objectives. The cost basis
of the securities, absolutely not their constantly changing Market
Values, must be used in all Asset Allocation calculations. Asset
Allocation is a critical portfolio planning exercise that is: based
on the purpose of the securities to be purchased, long term in
nature, and never "rebalanced' or altered due either to current
market circumstances, hedging, or some form of market timing (which,
of course, is impossible).
Market Values are used in the selection
process that identifies trading candidates that will fill the
buckets... cash from all income sources, by the way, is always
"destined" for one bucket or the other, and may be held unused if no
proper candidates exist. Selecting potential Equities must first be
"fundamental", then "technical"... i.e. based on the Quality of the
security first, and the price second. My experience is that higher
quality companies purchased at a 20% or more discount from the 52-
week high, with a profit target of approximately 10% (realized as
quickly as possible) is a very manageable approach. The proceeds
find their way back into the "smart cash" pot for Asset Allocation
according to formula. There will be times when "smart cash" grows
quickly while the list of new trading candidates shrinks, but when
trading candidates are all over the place, "smart cash" is
replenished with a portion of every income dollar produced by both
fully invested buckets! Thus, insistence upon some form of income
from all securities owned makes enormous sense!
But what about trading the Income Bucket
securities? Enter the Closed End Income Fund, in the form of a
common stock, and in a surprising variety of income producing
specialties ranging from Preferred Stocks to Oil Royalties, Treasury
Securities to Municipal Bonds, and REITs to Mortgage Income. No more
worries about liquidity and hidden markups. No more cash flow
positioning or laddering of maturities. And best of all, no more
calls of your highest yielding paper when interest rates fall.
Instead, you are taking capital gains, compounding your yield, and
paying your dues to the Equity Bucket. And when interest rates move
back up... you'll have the luxury of reducing your cost basis by
adding additional shares. Of course its magic... that's what we do
here on Wall Street!
Steve Selengut
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