When is 3 percent better than 6 percent? Yeah, we all know
the answer, but only until the prices of the securities we already own begin to
fall. Then, logic and mathematical acumen disappear and we become susceptible to
all kinds of special cures for the periodic onset of higher interest rates. We'll
be told to sit in cash until rates stop rising, or to sell the securities we own
now, before they lose even more of their precious Market Value. Other gurus will
suggest the purchase of shorter-term bonds or CDs (ugh) to stem the tide of the
perceived erosion in portfolio values. There are two important things that your
mother never told you about Income Investing: (1) Higher Interest Rates are good
for investors, even better than lower rates, and (2) Selecting the right securities
to take advantage of the interest rate cycle is not particularly difficult.
Higher Interest Rates are the result of the Government's
efforts to slow a growing economy in hopes of preventing an appearance of the three
headed inflation monster. A quick glance over your shoulder might remind you of
recent times when the government was trying to heal the wounds of a misguided Wall
Street attack on traditional investment principles by lowering interest rates. The
strategy worked, the economy rebounded, and Wall Street is trying to scramble back
to where it was nearly six years ago. Think about the impact of changing interest
rates on your Income Securities during the past five years. Bonds and Preferred
Stocks; Government and Municipal Securities; they all moved higher in Market Value.
Sure you felt wealthier, but the increase in your Annual Spendable Income got
smaller and smaller. Your total income could well have decreased during the period
as higher interest rate holdings were called away (at face value), and
reinvestments were made at lower yields!
How many of you have mental bruises from the realization
that you could have taken profits during the downward trajectory of the cycle, on
the very securities that you now lament over. The nerve; falling below the price
you paid for them years ago. But the income on these turncoats is the same as it
was in 2004, when their prices were ten or twenty percent higher. This is the work
of Mother Nature's financial twin sister. It's like acorns, snowfalls, and
crocuses. You need to dress properly for seasonal changes and invest properly for
cyclical changes. Remember the days of Bearer Bonds? There was never a whisper
about Market Value erosian. Was it the IRS or Institutional Wall Street that took
them away?
Higher rates are good for investors, particularly when
retirement is a factor in your investment decisions. The more you receive for your
reinvestment dollars, the more likely it is that you won't need a second job to
maintain your standard of living. I know of no retail entity, from grocery store to
cruise line that will accept the Market Value of your portfolio as payment for
goods or services. Income pays the bills, more is always better than less, and only
increased income levels can protect you from inflation! So, you say, how does a
person take advantage of the cyclical nature of interest rates to garner the best
possible income on investment quality securities? You might also ask why Wall
Street makes such a fuss about the dismal bond market and offers more of their
patented Sell Low, Buy High advisories, but that should be fairly obvious. An
unhappy investor is Wall Streets best customer.
Selecting the right securities to take advantage of the
interest rate cycle is not particularly difficult, but it does require a change in
focus from the statement bottom line... and the use of a few security types that
you may not be 100% comfortable with. I'm going to assume that you are familiar
with these investments, each of which could be considered (from time to time) for a
spot in the well diversified Income Portion of your Asset Allocation: (1) The
traditional individual Municipal and Corporate Bonds, Treasuries, Government Agency
Securities, and Preferred Stocks. (2) The eyebrow raising Unit Trust varietals,
Closed End Funds, Royalty Trusts, and REITs. [Purposely excluded: CDs and Money
Funds, which are not investments by definition; CMOs and Zeros, mutations developed
by some sicko MBAs; and Open End Mutual Funds, which just can't work because they
are really "managed by the mob"... i.e., investors.] The market rules
that apply to all of these are fairly predictable, but the ability to create a
safer, higher yielding, and flexible portfolio varies considerably within the
security types. For example, most people who invest in Individual bonds wind up
with a laundry list of odd lot positions, with short durations and low yields,
designed for the benefit of that smiling guy in the big corner office. There is a
better way, but you have to focus on income and be willing to trade occasionally.
The larger the portfolio, the more likely it is that you
will be able to buy round lots of a diversified group of bonds, preferred stocks,
etc. But regardless of size, individual securities of all kinds have liquidity
problems, higher risk levels than are necessary, and lower yields spaced out over
inconvenient time periods. Of the traditional types listed above, only preferred
stock holdings are easily added to during upward interest rate movements, and cheap
to take profits on when rates fall. The downside on all of these is their
callability, in best-yield-first order. Wall Street loves these securities because
they command the highest possible trading costs... costs that need not be disclosed
to the consumer, particularly at issue. Unit Trusts are traditional securities set
to music, a tune that generally assures the investor of a higher yield than is
possible through personal portfolio creation. There are several additional
advantages: instant diversification, quality, and monthly cash flow that may
include principal (better in rising rate markets, ya follow?), and insulation from
year-end swap scams. Unfortunately, the Unit Trusts are not managed, so there are
few capital gains distributions to smile about, and once all of the securities are
redeemed, the party is over. Trading opportunities, the very heart and soul of
successful Portfolio Management, are practically non-existent.
What if you could own common stock in companies that manage
the traditional Income Securities and other recognized income producers like real
estate, energy production, mortgages, etc.? Closed End Funds (CEFs), REITs, and
Royalty Trusts demand your attention... and don't let the idea of
"leverage" spook you. AAA + insured corporate bonds, and Utility
Preferred Stocks are "leverage". The sacred 30-year Treasury Bond is
"leverage". Most corporations, all governments (and most private
citizens) use leverage. Without leverage, most people would be commuting to work on
bicycles. Every CEF can be researched as part of your selection process to
determine how much leverage is involved, and the benefits... you're not going to be
happy when you realize what you've been talked out of! CEFs, and the other
Investment Company securities mentioned, are managed by professionals who are not
taking their direction form that mob (also mentioned earlier). They provide you the
opportunity to have a properly structured portfolio with a significantly higher
yield, even after the management fees that are inside.
Certainly, a REIT or Royalty Trust is more risky than a CEF
comprised of Preferred Stocks or Corporate Bonds, but here you have a way to
participate in the widest variety of fixed and variable income alternatives in a
much more manageable form. When prices rise, profit taking is routine in a liquid
market; when prices fall, you can add to your position, increasing your yield and
reducing your cost basis at the same time. Now don't start to salivate about the
prospect of throwing all your money into Real Estate and/or Gas and Oil Pipelines.
Diversify properly as you would with any other investments, and make sure that your
living expenses (actual or projected) are taken care of by the less risky CEFs in
the portfolio. In bond CEFs, you can get un-leveraged portfolios, state specific
and/or insured Municipal portfolios, etc. Monthly income (frequently augmented by
capital gains distributions) at a level that is most often significantly better
than your broker can obtain for you. I told you you'd be angry!
Another feature of Investment Company shares (and please
stay away from gimmicky, passively managed, or indexed types) is somewhat
surprising and difficult to explain. The price you pay for the shares frequently
represents a discount from the market value of the securities contained in the
managed portfolio. So instead of buying a diversified group of illiquid individual
securities at a premium, you are reaping the benefit of a portfolio of (quite
possibly the same) securities at a discount. Additionally, and unlike regular
Mutual Funds that can issue as many shares as they like without your approval, CEFs
will give you the first shot at any additional shares they intend to distribute to
investors.
Stop, put down the phone. Move into these securities
calmly, without taking unnecessary losses on good quality holdings, and never buy a
new issue. I meant to say: absolutely never buy a new issue, for all of the usual
reasons. As with individual securities, there are reasons for unusually high or low
yields, like too much risk or poor management. No matter how well managed a junk
bond portfolio is, it's still just junk. So do a little research and spread your
dollars around the many management companies that are out there. If your advisor
tells you that all of this is risky, ill-advised foolishness... well, that's Wall
Street, and the baby needs shoes.
The final article in this Income Investing trilogy will be
on managing the Income Portfolio using the Working Capital Model.
Steve Selengut
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