Many Investment Gurus, with a straight
face and a gleam in their eye, will insist that successful
investing is a function of expansive research, skillful market
timing, and detailed technical analysis. Others emphasize
fundamental information about companies, industries, and markets.
But trends and numbers are secondary to a thorough understanding
of the basic principles of Investing and Management, and their
interrelationships. The ingredients for a successful investment
portfolio are these: stubborn belief in the Quality,
Diversification, and Income trinity from Investments 101, and
operations that employ the Planning, Leading, Organizing, and
Controlling skills introduced in Freshman Management. Here are
some things to keep in mind while you season your experience with
patience and marinate your investment process with discipline:
* A viable Investment Program begins with
the private development of an Investment Plan. The first step is
the identification of personal goals and objectives and a time
frame for goal achievement. The end result should be a near
autopilot, long-term and increasing, retirement income. Asset
Allocation is used to structure the portfolio so that it operates
in a goal directed manner. The finished Plan must be flexible in
design, based upon reasonable expectations, simple in structure
and operation, and easy to supervise.
* Use a "cost based" Asset Allocation
Model. Although most of the Investment World operates on a Market
Value basis for everything from performance analysis to Asset
Allocation and Diversification decision modeling, you will improve
your long-term results and stay within your allocation and
diversification guidelines better by using a system based upon
Working Capital. This widely unknown Asset Allocation "model"
takes the hype out of daily stock market reporting and keeps the
income investor's focus on appropriate statistics.
* Control your emotions, among other
things. Clearly, fear and greed are the two that require the most
control in the investment environment... particularly in these
days of a reckless media, Internet empowered scam merchants, high-
speed information gathering/processing, and cheap personalized
trading capabilities. Love and hate need to be dealt with as well,
but there are fewer out-of-body influences on these. Only strictly
disciplined decision makers need apply for your Investment
Management position... and you may not be the ideal candidate.
Investment Management is a continual responsibility, not a weekend
and occasional evenings avocation.
* Avoid hindsightful analysis, and
uninformed (or salesperson) criticism. It is painfully comical how
hindsight has taken over in our society... in sports, finance,
politics, and the professions, everywhere... everyone you hear is
second-guessing and finger pointing. No one is willing to take
responsibility for their own actions and everyone is willing to
sue whoever coulda', woulda' or shoulda' prevented whatever
happened. Investors cannot afford to be Little League crybabies.
Make one of the three basic decisions (which are?) and don't look
back. No person or program can predict the future, and your
portfolio requires management today. The playing field for the
investment game is uncertainty.
* Establish a profit-taking target for
every security you purchase. The purpose of investing is to make
more money than you could in a guaranteed, non-negotiable
instrument. This larger money making expectation comes with an
assumption of some form of risk... there are several, and its "in
there" in all investments. In Equities, set a reasonable profit
target and take less if you can get it quickly. With income
investments, never say no to a profit equal to a year's income, or
10% if you like round numbers. There are always new investment
opportunities, and there is no such thing as a bad profit... or a
good loss.
* Examine Market Value numbers at
intelligent intervals. Frequent examination is stressful and non-
productive. There are no averages or indices that compare with a
properly diversified Investment Portfolio, particularly if your
Equity selections are screened for Quality and Income. Investing
is a long-term endeavor, and neither Shock(sic) Market symbols nor
current yields operate on a calendar year schedule. Look at market
peaks and troughs over significant time periods that include
"cycles"... and do separate your analysis by class.
* Avoid what the crowd is doing and shun
investment products. Consumers buy products; Investors buy
securities. The crowd is driven by the very emotions that you must
learn to control. Stay focused on your plan; analyze your annual
income and trading statistics. Buy and hold creates more real tax
problems than real millionaires, and gimmicks and fads last just
slightly longer than spring fashions. Always buy good stuff on bad
news and sell into good news announcements.
* Don't try to save the world with your
investment decisions. Never limit your investment opportunities
artificially. Votes work better when it comes to changing your
world, and corporations should not be the targets of your
political hates... get rid of incumbents, state and local, until
there are changes in the tax code, social security, tort law,
environmental issues, etc. In the meantime, invest with your head,
not your heart. The business of a capitalist society is...
* Keep in mind that you need Income to pay
the bills, and that your cost of living in retirement will be
higher than you think. If you insist on some income from every
Equity security you ever own, and beat-the-bank income from income
securities, you will obtain two important things: An annually
increasing cash flow that will rise at a rate greater than most
normal inflation rates, and a higher quality investment portfolio
for better long-term investment performance. (If you use a cost
based Asset Allocation model with at least 30% invested in income
securities and no open end Mutual Funds or Index ETFs.) Never
settle for tiny short-term yields or get hooked on those that are
unsustainably high.
* Investing is not a competitive event,
ever. You don't need to beat the market. You need to accomplish a
set of personalized goals. Not even your twin's portfolio should
be the same as yours. The faster you run, the less likely it is
that you will succeed over time. Big risks, foolproof gimmicks,
and exotic computer programs occasion more failures than success
stories. Remember the Investment gods? They created Stocks and
Bonds... only Stocks and Bonds!
* Avoid Unrealized Gains, Embrace
Volatility, Increase Annual Income, and remember that all key
investment moments are only visible in rear view mirrors. Most
unrealized gains become Schedule D realized losses. As of today
there has never been a correction (rally) that has not succumbed
to the next rally (correction). Only an increasing income level
can beat back inflation... a bigger market value number just
doesn't do it.
Perge'
Steve Selengut
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